🏀 High Point vs. Arkansas Prediction & Picks: March Madness Second Round (March 21)

No. 12 seed High Point completed one of the biggest March Madness upsets in recent memory on Thursday, and looks to continue its "Cinderella" run when it faces SEC champion and No. 4 seed Arkansas. This game is scheduled for the late tipoff of the day from Moda Center in Portland, Ore., at 9:45 p.m., airing on truTV/TBS, with Arkansas as an 11.5-point betting favorite.

While my High Point vs. Arkansas prediction may not be calling for a second straight upset en route to the Sweet 16, I my March Madness predictions expect the Panthers to cover, buoyed by another strong shooting performance from Rob Martin.

🏀 High Point vs. Arkansas picks & odds: March Madness Second Round

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🏆 Who will win High Point vs. Arkansas?

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High Point's outright win over Wisconsin as a 10.5-point underdog on Thursday was the biggest upset in the NCAA Tournament in almost two years. The win ended over a 30-game winning streak for tournament favorites of at least eight points, but history says the Panthers cannot extend the nation's longest active winning streak to 16 against the Razorbacks.

Score prediction: Arkansas 88, High Point 81

💰 High Point vs. Arkansas prediction & best bet

High Point +11.5 (-114)

High Point broke a 19-year winless drought for the Big South in the NCAA Tournament. But it’s very much the same Panthers team that hung with Purdue last year despite holding the Boilermakers to 50% on 2-pointers and trailing by just three with seven minutes left. 

High Point had great preparation for Arkansas by playing Wisconsin, as the two teams similarly run offense through their standout backcourt duos. 

The most impressive thing about Thursday’s win was that Wisconsin was previously 21-2 when shooting at least 33.3% from beyond the arc, and the Badgers shot 39.1%.

🔥 Best High Point vs. Arkansas player prop bet

Rob Thomas Over 1.5 made 3-pointers (-112)

In three games that High Point faced a top-100 defense this year, it averaged a preposterous 50% 3-point rate. The Panthers carved up those two top defenses (Southern Illinois and UIC) to the tune of 1.11 and 1.25 points per possession, respectively.

High Point will face another defense that hard-hedges ball screens for the second straight game in Arkansas, after competing against mostly ball-screen switching defenses in the Big South. The Razorbacks hard hedge more than anyone in the SEC, and spacing and spreading the floor is the way to attack that.

This is not an overreaction to Rob Martin going 4-for-10 from 3-point range against Wisconsin, as I am still well aware that he is a 29.4% perimeter shooter. I just expect John Calipari to pick his poison against High Point, and focus more on taking away the Panthers’ straight-line drives.

🚀 High Point vs. Arkansas same-game parlay

High Point was impressive in battling back from a 2.9% win probability when it trailed Wisconsin by eight with less than six minutes to play. That gives me confidence with the first two legs of this parlay that the Panthers are never out of a game, and can string together plenty of consecutive defensive stops when needed.

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💡 How I'm betting High Point vs. Arkansas: March Madness strategy

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Given that there are so many similarities between Arkansas and Wisconsin (albeit that High Point has never seen a player like Darius Acuff Jr.), I am confidently backing High Point and the Under in a game where both teams have just one day to prepare.

John Calipari improved to just 7-11 ATS in the Round of 64 as a double-digit favorite, and that lack of ATS success doesn't bode well for his team's chances of covering a second straight big spread.

📊 Live High Point vs. Arkansas odds: March Madness Second Round

Sharp action may have driven this line up from its opening number. The Razorbacks are most commonly up to -11.5 from an opening number of -10.5 despite receiving just 36% of the early wagers. But with the juice being as high as -115 to take the points with High Point, the market doesn't appear to be ready to reach -12 anytime soon.

FanDuel is the only of our best sports betting sites offering a total of 169.5, as all the bottom of the market is a full-point lower at 168.5. Again, the -115 juice on the Over of 168.5 suggests we could see an alignment with the rest of the market at 169.5 before long.

📈 High Point vs. Arkansas betting trends

📺 How to watch High Point vs. Arkansas: March Madness Second Round

• Date: Sunday, March 21
• Tipoff: 9:45 p.m. ET
• Location: Moda Center (Portland, Ore.)
• TV: truTV/TBS
• Streaming: Max