Gonzaga vs. Michigan Prediction & Odds: College Basketball Betting Preview for Nov. 26

There's $1 million in NIL compensation on the line when two premier programs face off in the Players Era Festival championship game tonight, and my Gonzaga vs. Michigan prediction expects these two elite defenses to bring their best to the court in Las Vegas.

No. 12 Gonzaga is a 2.5-point betting favorite against No. 7 Michigan for tonight's championship matchup at MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas. Tip-off is set for 9:30 p.m. ET on TNT.

This matchups is a part of Feast Week, and you can stay on top of all the hoops action this Thanksgiving with our college basketball Feast Week guide.

✅ Gonzaga vs. Michigan prediction & expert picks

See all of our experts' college basketball picks this week.

🏀 Gonzaga vs. Michigan preview & score prediction

While the Players Era Festival has been, let's just say, a strange tournament set up with no bracket and several teams going 2-0 in the opening two days. Gonzaga and Michigan are in the championship because of the point differential tiebreaker.

The Bulldogs and Wolverines got here by handing teams double-digit losses, while both programs averaged over 90 points per game in their first two games. That's why the game total at our best March Madness betting sites is set slightly too high for my liking.

Dominant defenses

Despite both programs lighting up the scoreboard in their first two games, neither faced a defense ranked top 30 in adjusted efficiency. Well, Michigan ranks No. 1 in defensive efficiency, and the Zags aren't far behind at No. 4. In a championship atmosphere at a neutral location, I expect both teams to get off to cold starts on the offensive end.

Both programs rank top 10 in effective field goal percentage on defense, and neither has been hot from behind the arc - both rank outside the top 125 nationally in 3-point percentage. Neither Gonzaga nor Michigan has even played a team ranked top 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency, let alone top five, so it might take time to adjust ... not to mention the added nerves of playing for an extra $1 million in NIL compensation.

KenPom projects these two teams to combine for 159 points tonight in Vegas, and with this being a difficult offensive matchup for the two Wooden Award odds contenders taking the court (Yaxel Lendeborg, Graham Ike), I think this game total is set at least three points too high.

If the Under hits, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit.

Score prediction: Gonzaga 79, Michigan 77

🆚 Gonzaga vs. Michigan matchup to watch

Graham Ike vs. Michigan front court

Without a doubt, the crown jewel of Dusty May's top-ranked transfer portal class at Michigan is Lendeborg; however, Aday Mara has been nearly as important as the Wolverines' defensive anchor. Thanks to the 7-foot-3 transfer from UCLA, Michigan has the best defense in the country. 

With Mara protecting the rim, opponents are shooting just 35.7% from inside the arc, second-lowest in the country. That spells trouble for Ike, who takes 9.6 of his 11.3 field goals per game from 2-point range. And while the senior leads Mark Few's team in scoring (17 PPG), he hasn't had to deal with a front court this long.

Michigan's front court of Lendeborg, Mara, and Morez Johnson is all 6-foot-9-plus, and each is averaging at least a block per game, with Mara No. 8 in the country at 2.8 blocks per game. Ike's difficult matchup should lead him to go Under 19.5 points for the third time in four games.

If this Under hits, a $10 bet pays an $8 profit.

Best prop bet: Graham Ike Under 19.5 points (-125 via BetMGM)

📊 Gonzaga vs. Michigan odds

See live college basketball odds for every game.

📺 How to watch Gonzaga vs. Michigan

• Date: Wednesday, Nov. 26
• Tipoff: 9:30 p.m. ET
• Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena (Las Vegas)
• TV: TNT