Florida vs. Duke Prediction & Odds: College Basketball Betting Preview for Dec. 2

The ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge features plenty of high-profile non-conference matchups this week, and I am breaking down one of the biggest ones with my Florida vs. Duke prediction. No. 4 Duke is an 8.5-point betting favorite over No. 15 Florida ahead of tipoff in front of the Cameron Crazies at Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, N.C., at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN).

Thus far the defending champion Gators do not have the look of a well-oiled offensive machine that can win consecutive titles. Their offensive shortcomings, is why I believe this game will stay Under the projected total, even despite another huge game from Duke’s Cameron Boozer.

✅ Florida vs. Duke predictions

🏀 Florida vs. Duke best bet & score prediction

See all of our experts' college basketball picks this week.

Under 156.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

Florida heavily relied upon the backcourt trio of Walter Clayton Jr., Alijah Martin, and Will Richard last year, who accounted for 53.9% of the team’s scoring. Without anyone stepping up to take their place early in the season, I expect the Gators' offense to continue struggling.

Florida’s backcourt issues

Thus far, Florida head coach Todd Golden deciding to pair transfers Boogie Fland and Xavian Lee as point guards in the backcourt has not worked out well.

Fland’s assist rate is less than half of what it was at Arkansas last season, while his turnover rate is up from 10.5% to 13.7%. Meanwhile, Lee’s offensive rating as measured by KenPom is on pace to decline for the third straight season, with a massive dropoff thus far from last year’s 113.1 to this year’s 96.8 rating.

Perhaps the two guards’ lack of creativity and penetration is a big reason why Florida not only has turned the ball over on nearly one out of every five possessions (ranks 254th), but also why the Gators rank in the bottom 45% of the country in 3-point shooting percentage (27.7%).

Case in point: in TCU’s upset of Florida last week, the Gators had their lowest rim rate of the season to date, yet still only managed 80 points despite their catch-and-shoot and unguarded catch-and-shoot rates being their second-highest of the season.

On Duke’s side, there is likely to be optimism in it scoring 1.14 points per possession against Arkansas in its latest win. But the metrics showed the Blue Devils should have been better off offensively. 

The Razorbacks entered that game ranked in the 83rd percentile in pick-and-roll defense and in the 93rd percentile or better in isolation and ball-screen defense. But that is not typically how Duke’s offense operates, and I would have been more optimistic about the Blue Devils if they had further exposed Arkansas’ defense, which ranked in the 13th percentile or worse in defending cutters and off-ball screens.

Under backers will find the best number at bet365, the only one of our best sports betting sites with a total higher than 155.5. Its -110 odds carry a 52.38% implied probability, and would net $9.09 on a winning $10 wager if the Under cashes.

Score prediction: Duke 80, Florida 74

🆚 Florida vs. Duke matchup to watch

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Cameron Boozer vs. Florida frontcourt

Cameron Boozer entered the week in the top six in the country in scoring (22.9 points per game). He is also the only Division I player in the past 30 seasons to score 175 points, grab 75 rebounds, and have 25 assists and 10 or fewer turnovers while going undefeated in an eight-game span.

His 40 minute points per game average of 31.6 points is on pace to exceed what Cooper Flagg produced last year as the eventual No. 1 overall draft pick (25.0). 

Florida allows the 13th-highest percentage of opponents’ points to come at the free throw line, and ranks in the top 20 in percentage of opponents’ points coming from beyond the arc. That suggests Boozer is in line for a big day in the paint, even if Florida has multiple 6-foot-10 bodies or taller it can throw at him.

Best prop bet: Cameron Boozer Over 23.5 points (-130 via bet365)

If you want another player prop from the ACC/SEC men's challenge, I have you covered with my college basketball best bets today.

📊 Florida vs. Duke odds

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📺 How to watch Florida vs. Duke

• Date: Tuesday, Dec. 2
• Tipoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Cameron Indoor Stadium (Durham, N.C.)
• TV: ESPN