🏀 First Four Picks & Best Bets: March Madness Predictions Today (March 17)
Tuesday's First Four slate gets March Madness going with two play-in contests between No. 16 seeds UMBC and Howard and No. 11 seeds Texas and N.C. State for the right to play Michigan and BYU, respectively.
The two games tip from UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio, at 6:40 p.m. ET and 9:10 p.m. ET, with both airing on truTV.
My First Four picks today find the most value in a first half total as my top play and backs the Unders on two players' point totals, as nerves will likely be a factor in such important games.
Be sure to check out my other UMBC vs. Howard odds & picks as part of our March Madness predictions.
🏀 First Four picks & best bets today: March Madness (March 17)
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Matchup | Pick | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| UMBC vs. Howard | First half Under 65.5 (-115 via DraftKings) | 1u -> 0.87u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| UMBC vs. Howard | Josh Odunowo Under 8.5 points (+100 via bet365) | 1u -> 1u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Texas vs. NC State | Darrion Williams Under 13.5 points (-112 via bet365) | 1u -> 0.89u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 3.0 units | Max profit: 2.76 units
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💰 Best First Four bet today
See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
UMBC vs. Howard first half Under 65.5 (-115)
The first 20 minutes in Dayton should be a rockfight between two teams playing stellar defense of late.
UMBC has been an elite rim denial defense, ranking in the 98th percentile in at rim field goal attempt rate and the 100th percentile in field goal percentage over the last 11 games.
Meanwhile, Howard ranks in the 96th percentile in Defensive Rating, thanks to a perimeter defense that holds opponents to the 18th-lowest 3-point percentage (30.4%).
It should also take time for UMBC to adjust to Howard’s havoc defense that ranks 27th with 8.7 steals per game.
🔥 More First Four picks today
Josh Odunowo Under 8.5 points (+100) vs. Howard
UMBC won the America East and got to the NCAA Tournament on the strength of its trio of guards (Ace Valentine, DJ Armstrong, and Jah’likai King) that all average 11.9 points per game or better for the Retrievers.
On any given possession, head coach Jim Ferry allows those three the freedom to drive their defenders or kick for open shots. Against non-Quad 1 opponents, the Bison allowed opponents to shoot just 48.3% inside the arc.
Quad 1 opponents dominated Howard in the paint by shooting 67.1% and averaging 47 paint points per game, exposing the Bison’s lack of size. But UMBC is not on that level, and Odunowo will feel the wrath of the pesky Bison while deferring to his backcourt teammates.
Darrion Williams Under 13.5 points (-112) vs. Texas
NC State star Darrion Williams has shockingly gone three consecutive games without a made 2-point field goal, as he is 0-for-8 from inside the arc in that span. We cover Williams in full with our Texas vs. NC State prediction.
He has averaged 7.7 points per game in that sample, thanks to making half of his 14 3-point attempts. But Williams cannot rely on heavy 3-point volume against this Longhorns defense.
Texas ranks near the bottom-300 allowing opponents to shoot 36% from beyond the arc. But Sean Miller’s squad masks that deficiency by allowing 3-point attempts at the 24th-lowest rate, with opponents getting just 27.1% of their points from beyond the arc (bottom-50).
Our Shane Thurston, however, backs the Over on Williams' 11.5-point total in his First Four player props.
🚀 Best First Four parlay picks today
This First Four three-leg parlay offers great value considering the first two legs coincide with the Unders on a first half and a player prop.
Many would have trepidation backing the Under on a player that was All-ACC Honorable Mention in a game of this magnitude, but his woeful 2-point shooting on limited volume has me backing that play with confidence.
💵 Best First Four parlay today
- UMBC-Howard first half Under 65 (-105)
- Josh Odunowo Under 8.5 points (+100)
- Darrion Williams Under 13.5 points (-112)
Best odds: +639 via Sportsbook (1u -> 6.39u)
💵 My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-16 | +8.10 units ✅ | 21.3% ✅ |
| Game picks | 14-13 | -0.60 units ❌ | -57.8% ❌ |
| Player props | 8-3 | +8.70 units ✅ | 79.1% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting the First Four today: March Madness strategy
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
I’m backing the first half Under instead of the full game total in UMBC-Howard in case both teams make halftime adjustments to the other's unique defenses.
I also felt I’d lost some value in the full game Under, as by the time of this writing, the total had plummeted from 141.5 (which I backed in my initial UMBC vs. Howard preview) to 139.5.
bet365 was the only one of the best sports betting sites offering plus-money odds on Odunowo's Under of 8.5 points, while most other sportsbooks had Williams' Under set at 12.5 points.
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