Duke vs. UNC Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks Today: Our Best Bets & Score Projections

The No. 2 Duke Blue Devils will face their unranked rivals the UNC Tar Heels on the road. It hasn’t been a great campaign for the Heels, but this might be a get-right spot for them. Before diving into our Duke vs. UNC prediction, odds, and expert picks, let’s run through the key factors to know.

Tonight’s Duke-UNC tilt takes place at the Dean E. Smith Center in Chapel Hill, NC via ESPN at 6:30 p.m. ET. While UNC is a modest 20-11 overall, the Heels are 12-2 at home. And although Duke is 27-3 overall, all of the team's losses have come as the visitors. 

But this still isn’t a great UNC team. The Tar Heels' moneyline odds are set at +385, which lead to 20.6% implied probability.

💰 Duke vs. UNC predictions, expert picks & best bets today

Here are my best Duke vs. UNC predictions, expert picks, and best bets today with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. Be sure to check out the rest of our college basketball picks along with our guide on how to bet on college basketball.

• Against the spread pick: UNC +10.5 (-110 via Hard Rock) vs. Duke ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• My best player prop bet: R.J. Davis Over 16.5 Points (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Exact score prediction: Duke 82, UNC 79 Over 156.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

🏀 Duke vs. UNC ATS prediction & best player prop bet pick

Here's why I'm betting on UNC to cover the spread (+10.5) while targeting RJ Davis Over 16.5 points as my best player prop bet pick for today:

✅ UNC to cover the spread (+10.5) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Look, I get it. This UNC team has few believers at this point. But momentum is significant in March, and the Tar Heels have it right now. The Tar Heels have gone 7-1 since their loss to Duke on Feb. 1, dropping a road game to Clemson just days after Duke did the same.

Statistically, UNC is a much-improved team since the loss to Duke, which sits first in the March Madness odds, with Cooper Flagg pacing the Wooden Award odds. From the start of the season through the first meeting between these teams, UNC’s adjusted offensive efficiency has ticked up by 12.1 points per 100 possessions.

UNC’s better offensive play was on full display earlier in the week against Virginia Tech. The Heels squashed the Hokies 91-59, with star guard RJ Davis converting all but one of his attempts from the field. 

Duke might be the best team in the country right now, but the Tar Heels' offense should be able to keep the game within a double-digit margin. 

📊 Best odds: -110 via Hard Rock (bet $10 to win $9.09)

🔥 RJ Davis Over 16.5 Points ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The first game against Duke didn’t go so well for Davis, as he shot 4-for-11 from the field en route to a measly 12 points. However, that may speak more to Davis’ general underperformance on the road, where he's averaging only 15.4 points this year. At home, Davis averages 18.4.

We saw a similar trend take place last season. Davis scored 17 at home against Duke in February before getting held to nine on the road in March. A year before that, Davis dropped 17 at home versus Duke in March after being held to 11 on the road in February.

UNC needs to win this game to lock up a double bye in the ACC tournament. While the books correctly list them as big-time underdogs, look for Davis to go out swinging in the fifth-year senior’s final rivalry game for the Tar Heels.

📊 Best odds: -110 via DraftKings (bet $10 to win $9.09)

🎯 Expert Duke vs. UNC score prediction

🔮 Expert score prediction: Duke 82, UNC 79

The total for this contest is 156.5, which means the best sports betting apps expect a final of 83.5 to 73. I’m bullish on the Over and project the final score somewhere around 82 to 79, with UNC’s recent offensive improvement helping the Tar Heels beat projections.

The other factor at play here is the home-court effect. Since the loss to Duke, UNC ranks 17th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency at home with an effective field-goal percentage of 60.8%, and the fourth-highest 3-point percentage of 49.3%. 

📊 Best odds: +31000 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $3100)

📊 Live Duke vs. UNC odds & latest betting splits

Here are the latest odds for Duke vs. UNC, which update live in real time. You can also check out our NEW college basketball player prop odds tool for the latest college basketball odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your region.

🏆 Who will win Duke vs. UNC?

As of Saturday morning, Duke was favored by 10.5 points to beat UNC, with moneyline odds of -475 at BetMGM, which suggests an 82.61% win probability for the Blue Devils. We're predicting an 82-79 victory for Duke as our final score projection.

However, there was a shift at BetMGM in the hours leading up to tipoff, with the Blue Devils now the 9.5-point favorites. Nonetheless, the overwhelming majority of money wagered on the spread is siding with Duke.

Meanwhile, 94% of bettors expect the game to finish Over the projected total of 156.5 points.

📺 How to watch Duke vs. UNC tonight

📅 Date: Saturday, March 8, 2025
🕗 Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
📍 Location: Dean E. Smith Center (Chapel Hill, N.C.)
📺 TV: ESPN
💻 Streaming: ESPN+ (With ESPN)

❓ Duke vs. UNC FAQs

Who is favored to win Duke vs. UNC?

Duke is a -475 favorite, according to BetMGM, which points to an implied win probability of 82.6%.  

What are the betting odds for Duke vs. UNC?

The latest spread is Duke -10.5 (-110) | UNC +10.5 (-110) with a total of 156.5 (-110 on both sides) points.

What will be the final score of Duke vs. UNC?

We're predicting a final score of Duke 82, UNC 79 entering tonight's matchup at the Dean E. Smith Center.

What time is Duke vs. UNC tonight?

Duke vs. UNC will tip off at 6:30 p.m. ET tonight.

⛹️ Best college basketball betting sites

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