Duke vs. Michigan State Prediction, Player Props & Odds Today

After these two college basketball bluebloods were a part of the same Champions Classic event in November, my Duke vs. Michigan State prediction analyzes their first head-to-head meeting in this mammoth non-conference matchup.

No. 7 Michigan State is a one-point betting favorite over No. 4 Duke on its home court at the Breslin Center in East Lansing, Mich., with this game tipping at noon ET on FOX. This is a huge matchup of national championship contenders that are a combined 17-0 to begin the season, but I am backing the Spartans to walk out as the only remaining unbeaten team while covering this small point spread.

Duke vs. Michigan State predictions today

Duke vs. Michigan State best bet & score prediction

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Michigan State -1 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

Michigan State has played only one game decided by fewer than 11 points this season, while Duke is fortunate to be undefeated after escaping with a one-point home victory over Florida in its last game. That has me siding with the Spartans as my Duke vs. Michigan State best bet.

Duke’s good fortune

In Duke’s three biggest non-conference wins thus far, it beat a Kansas team at Madison Square Garden playing without star freshman Darryn Peterson, failed to cover a double-digit spread against Arkansas, and escaped with a one-point win against Florida despite the Gators being the better team for much of the game.

One could argue that Florida outplayed Duke for all of eight minutes on its home floor on Tuesday night, save for a 19-5 Blue Devils run to close the first half. In those opening 20 minutes, the Gators starting backcourt was a combined 1-for-11 shooting. Thomas Haugh was their only real source of offense early, as he scored or assisted on 19 of the 24 first-half points. 

Michigan State is a veteran and cohesive bunch that has beaten Arkansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Iowa with a combination of size, rebounding, and veteran leadership (four captains returned).

The Spartans rank in the top 15 nationally in rebounding margin and own the third-best defense in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency. They have held three ranked opponents to fewer than 70 points, and the Breslin Center crowd should make the difference in Duke’s first true road test. 

I am laying my $10 wager down at Caesars, the only top sports betting site offering better than a spread of -1.5. Its -110 odds carry a 52.38% implied probability, and would net $9.09 in profits if the Spartans cover.

Score prediction: Michigan State 73, Duke 69

Duke vs. Michigan State matchup to watch

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Patrick Ngongba II vs. Michigan State frontcourt

Patrick Ngongba II has been overshadowed in his own frontcourt by freshman Cameron Boozer, who has made an early statement for Player of the Year nomination. Boozer has averaged 30.0 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 3.0 assists over the last three games, and is the first Duke player to score 90 points in a three-game span since JJ Redick in 2006. 

Seeing as Boozer’s 90 points in three games are also the most in a three-game span by any Duke freshman in school history, I expect him to have Tom Izzo and the Spartans’ full defensive attention.

Ngongba quietly had eight points in the first half against Florida’s mammoth frontcourt. He shot a perfect 3-for-3 over the first 20 minutes and connected on both his 3-pointers. 

Ngongba’s plus/minus of +12 was second only to Caleb Foster’s in the first half. His versatility by being able to step out and hit shots from the perimeter (he is shooting 60% from beyond the arc over the last two games) should help Jon Scheyer scheme ways to break down the Michigan State defense if Boozer is double-teamed on every catch.

Best prop bet: Patrick Ngongba II Over 10.5 points (-120 via bet365)

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How to watch Duke vs. Michigan State today

• Date: Saturday, Dec. 6
• Tipoff: Noon ET
• Location: Breslin Center (East Lansing, Mich.)
• TV: FOX

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