College Basketball Best Bets Today | ATS & Over/Under Picks for Thursday, Jan. 1

My college basketball best bets today examine a slate comprised mostly of mid-major battles, as no AP top 25 teams are in action on New Year’s Day.

With no college basketball player props available, my four-pack of plays involve a more traditional split of two ATS and two O/U wagers.

🏀 College basketball best bets today: Jan. 1

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Oakland vs. Youngstown State prediction: Oakland +1.5 (-120 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

Oakland has lost back-to-back games and three of four, and now faces a Youngstown State team that swept the two regular-season meetings last year, winning by 16 and 9 points. But the Grizzlies combined to shoot 9-for-41 from 3-point range in those losses, and positive shooting regression should make all the difference this year.

Youngstown State ranks in the 38th percentile in zone offense efficiency after finishing in the 41st percentile last year. And much of Oakland’s poor defensive numbers are due to playing a murderous non-conference slate that included games against Michigan, Purdue, Houston, and Michigan State.

Cal Baptist vs. UT Arlington prediction: Cal Baptist -2.5 (-102 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

UT Arlington has the country’s No. 1 3-point defense (24.6% allowed). But no team is due more defensive 3-point regression, as the Mavericks have really allowed an expected make rate of 33%.

Cal Baptist should own a significant advantage on the glass, as its 40% offensive rebounding rate is 12th-best in D-I. The Lancers entered December as the best defensive rebounding team in the country as well.

Utah Valley vs. Tarleton State prediction: Over 150.5 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

KenPom’s Game of the Day is between two of the favorites in the WAC, and I’m expecting fireworks.

Tarleton State will press most of the game, which may not be wise to do against a Utah Valley team that loves to play downhill and attack the rim first and foremost. 

The Wolverines have had only 71 total possessions against a press, but they have fared well so far. And Tarleton State’s opponents only spend an average of 15.7 seconds on offense per possession (11th-shortest), so there should be plenty of possessions in this contest.

Indiana State vs. Northern Iowa prediction: Over 132.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

Indiana State’s Ian Scott played just four minutes in a road win at Milwaukee. Since that game, the Sycamores scored 81 points in their only win and allowed 193 points in their two losses. 

Granted, the team has played four overtime periods in that span, but are clearly more efficient offensively and worse defensively when their starting power forward is healthy.

Northern Iowa is always one of the Missouri Valley’s best defensive teams. Though the Panthers have played three consecutive games without each team reaching 60 points, Indiana State’s 3-point prowess should open up the offensive flow more.

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