College Basketball Best Bets Today: ATS Picks & Player Props for Monday, Dec. 29

My college basketball best bets today dive into a loaded Monday slate that kicks off the first full week of action after things slowed down last week.

My college basketball player props involve two players from AP top 25 squads, and I add two ATS and O/U expert picks on games between conference opponents.

🏀 College basketball best bets today: Dec. 29

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Oakland vs. Wright State prediction: Under 161.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I’m not sure why the total for this Horizon League matchup is so high, especially since the two regular-season meetings between them last year totaled 130 and 128 points. Add in the extended layoff for both teams (the Under is 4-1 in Wright State’s five games with four-plus days off), and this has the makings of a slugfest.

This is a confident four-star play, as Wright State came out of its second league game with a 79th percentile rim rate and 95th percentile post rate. But both staples of the Raiders' offense should be negated by Oakland’s tricky zone.

Tarleton State vs. UT Arlington prediction: Tarleton State +2.5 (-108 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

At some point, UT Arlington’s turnover issues have to catch up with it, as it is 8-4 despite ranking in the bottom 10 in turnover rate. When it fell to 6-3 after a 20-point loss to Arkansas State, the rest of the teams in the bottom 10 in turnover rate were a combined 10-71 against D-I competition. 

The Mavericks also aren't likely to get away with the nation’s best 24.2% opponent 3-point percentage for much longer. ShotQuality data shows that opponents are 0.3 points per possession under expectation on open jump shots against them.

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Yaxel Lendeborg Under 14.5 points (-105 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

My first of two college basketball player props today is no more than a three-star play, as I’m backing the Under in points on a player on a Michigan team that has scored 100-plus in five of six games.

That is the confidence I have in a unique McNeese defense that is versatile enough to switch one through five. Because of that versatility, the Cowboys force jump shots at a high rate and own a first percentile rim rate allowed, combined with a 99th percentile defensive efficiency rating at the rim.

The -105 odds at bet365 carry a 51.22% implied probability and would net $9.52 in profit on a $10 wager if Lendeborg stays Under this projected total for the fourth time in five games.

Fletcher Loyer Over 2.5 rebounds (-130 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Purdue small forward Fletcher Loyer has contributed just one offensive rebound all season, so he will likely need defensive rebounds go to Over this projected total. 

Loyer has three defensive boards in two of his last three games. I expect Purdue head coach Matt Painter will put an emphasis on all five Boilermakers crashing the backboards against a dangerous Kent State team that ranks in the top 60 of the country in offensive rebounding rate.

If my $10 wager cashes, I would net $7.69 in profit from bet365’s -130 price and 56.52% implied odds.

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