College Basketball Best Bets Today: Expert Picks & Predictions for Friday (Nov. 14)

After going 3-1 with my last set of four plays, my college basketball best bets today are back to build off that momentum.

A whopping 11 of the AP top 25 are in action to kick off the weekend, and no matchup is bigger than the Hall of Fame Series game in Los Angeles between No. 5 Arizona and No. 15 UCLA. I am banking on one of the country’s most talented freshmen to make an impact in that top-15 tilt, and I added another play involving a ranked team.

🏀 Best college basketball bets today: Nov. 14

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds.

💰 Best college basketball predictions for Friday

🔥  Milwaukee vs. Texas Tech prediction: Texas Tech -28 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

No. 11 Texas Tech enters this game with a significant rest advantage over Milwaukee, who last played on Wednesday and is entering its third game in five days. 

Indiana just shredded Milwaukee for 1.42 points per possession while shooting 50% from beyond the arc. 

The Panthers began the week with a tidy 92-72 win over Little Rock, but that game played much more to their strength. Little Rock played a 1-1-2-1 tandem stack zone on 31% of its defensive possessions in its season opener, while Milwaukee saw zone at a 91st percentile rate in the Horizon last year. 

The Panthers have not shown an ability to excel against a physical man-to-man defense yet, and Texas Tech used its disciplined man-to-man principles to hold Illinois to just five assists in its last game, albeit in a loss.

This spread is as high as 28.5 at the other best sports betting sites, so I am taking advantage of the best number and price after using a Caesars promo code. Through its standard -110 juice at 52.38% implied odds, a $10 winning wager would net $9.09 in profits.

🔥  Xavier vs. Iowa prediction: Iowa -15.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Xavier was blasted 87-68 on its home court by a more talented Santa Clara team on Monday, and many of the issues that faced the Musketeers prior to that resurfaced in the loss.

Xavier entered that game averaging 0.79 points per possession in half-court settings, which ranked in the ninth percentile at the time. But more concerning was the fact that it produced that against Marist and Le Moyne, the latter being the fourth-worst defense in the country in efficiency rating last year. 

Iowa’s slow pace that ranks 365th in adjusted tempo should once again turn this into a half-court grind, where the Musketeers clearly haven’t shined yet.

The 15.5-point spread at BetMGM is a full point lower than the -16.5 across the rest of the market. That makes paying up slightly for its -115 juice at 53.49% implied odds worth it, as a $10 winning wager would still return $8.70 in profits.

⬆️  Baylor team prop: Team total Over 88.5 points (-120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Baylor hosts a Tarleton State team that dropped back-to-back games against Power 4 teams (SMU and LSU) to start the season, while giving up 96 points per contest. The fact that the Texans were non-competitive in a 36-point loss to LSU was disappointing considering Billy Gillespie’s team has as much SEC talent on its roster as the Tigers.

The Texans’ press has been shredded by teams that are a step up in competition. SMU, namely, averaged 1.3 points per possession in press offense against Tarleton State, in a sloppy game that featured 54 fouls and 77 free throw attempts. 

Baylor ranks 46th in free throw attempts per field goal attempt rate, and has a path to easy offense if this game plays out similarly.

DraftKings’ -120 odds carry a 54.55% implied probability. If Baylor scores at least 89 points, I would net $8.33 in profits on my winning $10 wager.

⬆️  Koa Peat player prop: Over 18.5 points (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Arizona freshman Koa Peat became just the third player ever to record 30-plus points, five or more rebounds, and at least five assists in their NCAA debut (joining Markelle Fultz in 2016 and Cole Anthony in 2019). The fact that he produced that 30/7/5 stat line against the defending champion Florida Gators is even more impressive.

Peat has seen his point totals drop to 18 and 10, respectively, in the next two games. But he has also averaged just 24.5 minutes in those two blowout wins, and should be on the floor for more like the 36 minutes that he played against Florida.

If Peat finishes with 19 or more points for the second time this season, my $10 winning wager would net $8.70 in profits through bet365’s -115 odds.