College Basketball Best Bets Today: Expert Picks & Predictions for Tuesday (Nov. 11)

After hitting on my two five-star predictions yesterday, an AP top-12 matchup between two bitter in-state rivals highlights my college basketball best bets today.

My college basketball predictions involve player and team props from two of the three ranked vs. ranked matchups of the day between No. 9 Kentucky and No. 12 Louisville, as well as No. 11 Texas Tech and No. 14 Illinois. Elsewhere, I make my best ATS and O/U predictions on two other games involving ranked teams that are national championship contenders.

🏀 Best college basketball bets today: Nov. 11

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds.

💰 Best college basketball predictions for Tuesday

🔥 Wake Forest vs. Michigan prediction: Michigan -14.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐

Wake Forest has ranked 128th and 195th in adjusted tempo under head coach Steve Forbes the last two years. This year, the Demon Deacons have pushed the pace at the 45th-fastest tempo against two inferior opponents while averaging 13.9 seconds per offensive possession (13th-fastest in the country). 

If Wake Forest wants to get into a track meet against Michigan in Ann Arbor, it is asking for trouble against a loaded Wolverines roster. 

Michigan had a long eight-day layoff after scoring a school record 121 points in a season opener against Oakland. That is the same Golden Grizzlies team that gave No. 1 Purdue all it could handle last week (they were tied at halftime). 

Wolverines forward Yaxel Lendeborg has scored in double figures in 23 consecutive games, while the team finished with 31 assists on 45 made field goals. With Michigan out for revenge after losing at Wake Forest last season, I expect a spirited effort en route to a cover in front of its raucous student section.

This is a more conservative three-star play, as the line has ballooned from -13.5 to as high as -15.5 overnight. But I am taking advantage of the best number and price at DraftKings, whose -115 odds at a 53.49% implied probability would net $8.70 in profits on a winning $10 wager if Michigan covers.

🔥 Ryan Conwell player prop: 3+ 3-pointers made (+102) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Louisville is playing the first of its six games against preseason AP top 25 opponents. Its offense has been humming through two games, averaging 105 points in wins over South Carolina State and Jackson State.

Kentucky’s defense will no doubt pose a much tougher test. But it has also allowed opponents the opportunity to bomb away from deep, with 48.3% of shots allowed coming from behind the arc. That ranks the Wildcats in the top 65 of most 3-point volume faced.

Sharpshooting Ryan Conwell entered the season as one of 14 returning Division I players that have made at least 175 3-pointers while shooting 38% or better for their careers. 

That makes the plus-money price at 49.50% implied odds a steal at FanDuel. My $10 wager would return $10.20 in profits if Conwell connects on at least three 3-pointers.

⬆️ Texas Tech team prop: Team total Over 80.5 points (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Texas Tech is led by forward JT Toppin, who currently ranks third on the Wooden Award odds leaderboard. 

He scored 31 points in last week’s season debut and entered the year as a versatile big with a 43% shooting percentage on pick-and-pops and a 33% career 3-point percentage. So far, he is also on track for a career-best free-throw percentage after making 11 of 16 attempts in the opener.

Toppin rose to the occasion with 20-plus points in three of four NCAA Tournament games last year, and he started the season with 22 or more points in half of his team’s first eight games last year.

With much of Illinois’ defensive attention likely to be paid to Toppin, I expect the Red Raiders, who rank 12th in adjusted offensive efficiency and have made nearly 40% of their 3-point attempts, to clear their projected team total. If they do, my $10 winning wager at DraftKings would net $8.70 in profits.

⬆️ Delaware vs. BYU prediction: Over 163.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

Delaware is coming off a 71-62 loss to DII Wilmington last Friday, its first loss to a DII school since 1984. Wilmington scored 71 points despite shooting just 23.8% from 3-point range, and that does not bode well for Delaware’s chances of success defensively against a loaded BYU squad.

Villanova limited the Cougars to 71 points in the season opener, with BYU getting just seven points from its bench. But the Cougars were much more efficient in their 98-53 win over Holy Cross. They attacked the rim with reckless abandon and finished with an 84.2% shooting percentage inside the arc.

The O/U is at 163.5 across the best sports betting sites, but Caesars is one of the only ones offering the standard -110 juice at 52.38% implied odds as opposed to making bettors pay up at -115. The -110 odds would net $9.09 in profit on a winning $10 wager.