College Basketball Best Bets & Player Props Today: Saturday (Dec. 13)

My college basketball best bets and player props today examine the plethora of exciting non-conference hoops action which features 20 of the AP top 25 teams, including four ranked vs. ranked matchups.

My college basketball predictions include my two player prop wagers on two matchups involving ranked teams: No. 2 Michigan and Maryland play their second Big Ten conference game, and No. 19 Kansas and N.C. State clash in Raleigh, N.C. Elsewhere, I like the Over in a Big East opener as one of my more traditional plays.

🏀 College basketball best bets & player props: Dec. 13

💰 College basketball expert picks today

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds.

⬆️  Providence vs. Butler prediction: Over 167.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Providence has the feel of a team that knows it will struggle defensively all season, so it is going to continue to push the pace at a top 20 tempo in the hopes of winning shootouts.

The Friars rank in the bottom 40 of D-I teams in defending the 3-point line (37.8% 3-point percentage allowed), while generating turnovers at a 15.7% clip (270th-worst).

But the real reason for backing this Over as part of my college basketball expert picks today is the upswing that the Friars offense seems to be on. 

Providence was shooting just 30.6% from beyond the arc at one point, four percentage points lower than expected. But it shot 38.6% from deep in losses to Wisconsin and Florida, and now ranks in the top 45, per Bart Torvik, in adjusted offensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage over its last four games. 

Over backers are getting tremendous value at FanDuel, whose total of 167.5 is two points lower than the rest of the market. I am laying down a $10 wager quickly before it aligns with the other 169.5s out there, in the hopes of netting $9.09 in profits.

🐴  SMU vs. LSU prediction: SMU moneyline (+102 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

SMU might as well join the SEC at this point, as it is playing its fourth straight game against a team from that conference.

The Mustangs are a respectable 2-1 against the SEC this year, with the lone loss coming to a Vanderbilt team that may be vastly underrated. 

SMU has won both of its games by a spread of 2 points or fewer (it was an underdog in both). That includes a coin-flip game last Sunday against a Texas A&M team that the Mustangs held to 77 points in regulation, despite the Aggies' ranking in the top 20 nationally in average possession length. 

The Mustangs proved they could win ugly, overcoming a 5-for-22 effort from 3-point range and being out-rebounded by five, by shooting 93% from the free-throw line and forcing turnovers on nearly 19% of their opponent’s possessions.

LSU lost its last game by 24 points to its only top-40 KenPom opponent thus far. Therefore, I am not being swayed by the fact that this game is in its backyard in New Orleans.

FanDuel’s +102 odds carry a 49.50% implied probability, and would return $10.20 in profit if SMU pulls the upset.

⛹️ College basketball player props today

Search the best college basketball player prop odds for any team or player across every market from legal sportsbooks in your area.

⬇️  Pharrel Payne, C, Maryland: Under 16.5 points (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Pharrel Payne has been a do-it-all player for Maryland this year. He has not scored fewer than 13 points in any game played, while ranking in the top 80 of all D-I players in percentage of his team’s possessions (29.1%).

Payne bullied his last two opponents, Wagner and Iowa, for a combined 47 points and 38 free throw attempts. But Michigan’s elite size (31st-tallest team in the country) and the fact that it allows opponents to score via free throws at a top 65 rate (17.2%) lowers Payne’s ceiling for points.

The fact that Payne scored 14 points apiece in Maryland’s two toughest games against Gonzaga and Alabama makes this a confident three-star play.

bet365’s -115 odds carry a 53.49% implied probability, and would net $8.70 in profits on a winning $10 wager.

⬆️  Darrion Williams, PF, N.C. State: Over 5.5 rebounds (+100 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Darrion Williams had secured five or fewer rebounds in four straight games prior to his eight-rebound performance (his second-highest of the season) in just 19 minutes in the last game against Liberty.

Kansas has averaged just 69.3 points per game in four games against top-30 KenPom opponents, so there should be plenty of missed shots in a game with a lot of possessions (N.C. State plays at a top 75 pace) for Williams to grab.

At +100 odds, any winning wager would return the same as one’s initial investment back in profits.