🏀 College Basketball Predictions Today: Colgate Out For Revenge on Lehigh

After today the rest of the college basketball season from here on out is win-or-go-home tournament action split between conference and postseason tournaments.

My college basketball predictions today expect a Patriot League semifinal matchup to go differently than how the two regular season meetings went. Meanwhile, my top two player props come from marquee Big Ten matchups, highlighted by one of the best freshmen in the country in Illinois' Keaton Wagler.

For more on today's college basketball slate, see Rob Paul's conference tournament guide.

🏀 College basketball predictions today: Best player props & ATS picks

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 4.0 units | Max profit: 4.17 units

💰 Best college basketball bet today

Colgate vs. Lehigh prediction: Colgate -1.5 (-110) 

Lehigh won a pair of one-point nail biters in a regular season sweep of Colgate. So why are the Raiders a five-star play to reverse those results in the Patriot League semifinals? Because they never should’ve lost those games, blowing a five-point lead with 90 seconds left in the first matchup, and squandering another three-point lead late in the rematch.

Colgate hung tough in those two games despite shooting a combined 31.3% from 3-point range, while Lehigh made 52.3% of its shots beyond the arc. It doesn’t take much regression to expect a different result this time.

🔥 More college basketball picks & player props today

Northwestern State vs. Nicholls prediction: Nicholls -2.5 (-110) 

Nicholls’ two regular season wins over Northwestern State were by a combined five points. But the Demons followed up a five-game cover streak with two non-covers in losses by 12 points apiece to end the regular season, so I am riding with the hotter team to complete the season sweep.

Nicholls won the turnover battle in both matchups, and the fact that it was plus-two on the backboards in the road rematch after being outrebounded by five in the first meeting is encouraging going forward.

The Colonels rank in the top 10 percentile in the country in limiting opponents’ pick-and-roll rates. And rest should do them good, as they have covered 61.5% of their games played after having four or more days off. 

Keaton Wagler Over 2.5 made 3-pointers (+135) at Maryland

Illinois guard Keaton Wagler ranks seventh in Big Ten play with a 43.1% 3-point percentage. He did not lack perimeter shooting volume in the first matchup against Maryland, firing nine 3-point attempts. But this wager buys low on the freshman phenom after making just one of those attempts.

Maryland ranks in the bottom 25 in the country in 3-point percentage defense, and their 37% 3-point percentage allowed for the season worsens to 38.2% when just factoring in league play. 

Wagner broke out of a 2-for-11 3-point slump by making five of his last 12 over the previous two games. His price is as low as +115 (46.51% implied odds) at other best March Madness betting sites, but the best payout is offered at bet365.

Aday Mara Over 12.5 points (+100) vs. Michigan State

Michigan is D-I’s second-best 2-point shooting offense at 62%, but it was uncharacteristically held to 18-of-38 shooting (47.4%) in a Jan. 30 road trip to the Breslin Center. Aday Mara made just four of his 12 attempts, and his eight-point output marked just the second time in the last eight games he was held to single digits.

Michigan State took some risks with their ball screen coverage in that first meeting, and played a “pick your poison” battle while often leaving itself vulnerable to lobs and dunks from Wolverines bigs. 

Mara has the 21st-highest offensive rating (per KenPom) of all players in Big Ten play, and his 12.3% offensive rebounding rate should create opportunities for easy putbacks in this rematch.

Rob Paul has Michigan as a No. 1 seed in his March Madness bracket predictions.

💡 How I'm betting college basketball today

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.

Colgate is 0-5 ATS in its last five games with a point spread of four or fewer points. But I expect regression from its two regular season meetings with Lehigh, and Matt Langel is an experienced March head coach with four NCAA Tournament appearances this decade. That has me backing the Raiders as a one-unit play like all my other picks, even though they are my favorite play of the day.

From a player prop perspective, I am targeting two players that have seen their opponent once already this season. Maryland's 17th-ranked Big Ten 3-point defense should result in a huge day for one of Illinois' best perimeter shooters, and I'm expecting a bounce-back offensively for Aday Mara in his second game against Michigan State.

🚀 Best college basketball parlay picks today

In addition to the four wagers above, I am adding a play on Navy’s moneyline odds as a fifth leg for this parlay.

The Midshipmen entered the weekend owning the nation's second-longest active winning streak at 14 games. It beat Boston University by an average of 6.5 points in a regular season sweep, and held the Terriers to their second-lowest point total of the season in a 58-50 road win on Jan. 28.

Adding Navy to this parlay brings the odds from +1530 to a more enticing +2002.