🏀 College Basketball Predictions Today: Best Dybantsa Prop, Siena to the Big Dance?

A day after the mid-majors had the college basketball landscape to themselves, the power conferences enter the fold today with action kicking off from the ACC, Big 12, and Big Ten Tournaments.

My college basketball predictions today are focusing on those mid-major tournaments for ATS plays, with a play each from the NEC Championship and the America East semifinals. My player prop predictions center around the Big 12 Tournament, and include my top wager for one of the best players in the country in BYU's AJ Dybantsa.

🏀 College basketball predictions today: Best player props & ATS picks

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 4.0 units | Max profit: 4.13 units

💰 Best college basketball bet today

Siena vs. Merrimack prediction: Siena ML (+135) 

Merrimack deploys a pressure 2-3 zone that forces turnovers at D-I’s 21st-highest rate. But Siena handled that pressure well with turnover rates below 19% in both regular season meetings, while Merrimack’s season average for turnovers forced is over 20%.

If anyone knows how to coach a team against a 2-3 zone, it is Gerry McNamara, who played his collegiate ball at Syracuse under Jim Boeheim. The Saints lost by four and also went to overtime against Merrimack, and yesterday’s day off should give them more time to put in a solid game plan to carry out this upset.

🔥 More college basketball picks & player props today

UMass Lowell vs. UMBC prediction: UMBC -7 (-110) 

UMBC is seeking its first NCAA Tournament appearance since pulling off a historic 16-over-1 stunner against Virginia in 2018. It couldn’t have asked for a better semifinal matchup on its home court than a game against UMass Lowell, which it beat by an average of 23.5 points in a regular season sweep.

The Retrievers are so difficult to prepare for since they have four players averaging 9.9 points per game or better. In addition, three of their top four leading scorers shoot 81% or better from the free throw line, making them tough to beat late.

UMBC won the rebounding battle by four or more in both wins over UMass Lowell. Its last 24-point win was particularly impressive considering it averaged 1.28 points per possession while shooting just 27.3% from 3-point range.

Tounde Yessoufou Over 18.5 points (+100) vs. Arizona State

Baylor forward Tounde Yessoufou finished the regular season strong with an average of 23 points per game over the final two games. That included a 20-point performance against one of the country’s toughest defensive teams in Houston.

We are getting a decent number on Yessoufou’s point total despite his recent scoring surge, as his Offensive Rating of 81 (per KenPom) against Arizona State three weeks ago was his worst in the last 10 games. But he still finished with 16 points and had his second-most free throw attempts in that 10-game stretch.

Baylor scored 73 points in that home win against the Sun Devils, and now have a team total O/U of 80.5. There is also a much lower likelihood for defensive intensity in a 12:30 p.m. weekday conference tournament tipoff compared to a regular season game.

AJ Dybantsa Under 1.5 3-pointers made (-115) vs. Kansas State

AJ Dybantsa enters the Big 12 Tournament amid a 10-game streak of 20-plus points, while scoring 35 or more three times in that span. But he has also made just two of his last 14 3-point attempts, and I am backing the Under on the number of 3-pointers he will make even though he has averaged seven such attempts over the last three games.

BYU is not a high-volume 3-point offense, as its 39.7% shot rate ranks eighth in the conference. Meanwhile, Kansas State allows the sixth-lowest 3-point attempt rate in the Big 12, and conference opponents get the fourth-lowest percentage of their points from beyond the arc against the Wildcats.

If Dybantsa is going to fill up the stat sheet once again, I expect him to recognize the shooting slump he is in, and attack the basket with reckless abandon.

💡 How I'm betting college basketball today

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.

Oftentimes the early rounds of most tournaments in power conferences feature games between teams with no realistic chance of making the NCAA Tournament (BYU is one of the exceptions in this case). Since that brings into question motivation levels among teams, I am focusing my ATS plays on traditional one-bid leagues, and leaving the player prop wagers to the games with the more high-profile athletes.

Although I am backing Siena's moneyline odds as my best college basketball bet today, I am playing it more conservatively and giving myself more of a chance to hit on a parlay by switching to their point spread as one of the five legs. 

🚀 Best college basketball parlay picks today

In addition to the four wagers above, I am adding a play on Cincinnati's moneyline odds against Utah as a fifth leg for this parlay.

The Bearcats are dark horses to make a run in the Big 12 Tournament, as they rate as the sixth-best team in conference play. They beat Utah by four points at home in the regular season, but also own wins over NCAA Tournament locks in Iowa State and Kansas.

Adding Cincinnati to this parlay brings the odds from +1196 to a more enticing +1359.