College Basketball Predictions Today: Bradley to Get Revenge Against Murray State

The calendar has turned to March, and Sunday’s slate of college basketball games should offer plenty of excitement to get the “madness” going with intense conference matchups.

My college basketball predictions today feature two player props in Big Ten matchups involving ranked teams. But my ATS plays look at rematches of two Missouri Valley Conference games, finding value with the home betting favorite.

🏀 College basketball predictions today: Best player props & ATS picks

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 4.0 units | Max profit: 3.56 units

💰 Best college basketball bet today

Murray State vs. Bradley prediction: Bradley -3.5 (-110) 

Bradley lost 86-66 at Murray State on Jan. 4 when the Racers were playing their best basketball en route to an 8-0 conference start. But Murray State is just 4-7 since and entered the weekend playing like the 192nd best team, with a 293rd-ranked defense, per Bart Torvik.

Murray State’s leaky defense can be pinned to poor rim protection, as it is 310th in 2-point percentage allowed over the 4-7 stretch. And Bradley’s Jaquan Johnson had a horrible game in the first meeting (four points on 2-of-12 shooting), but has scored 23-plus points in four of his last five.

🔥 More college basketball picks & player props today

Belmont vs. Illinois State prediction: Illinois State -1 (-110) 

I worry about complacency in this regular-season finale for Belmont, as the Bruins will have won the regular season title by at least three games even with a loss.

Meanwhile, Illinois State has an outside chance to finish as high as third entering the conference tournament, and it has a great chance to avenge an 80-69 road loss to Belmont earlier in the season.

Belmont torched Illinois State for 1.53 points per possession in pick-and-roll sets in the first matchup, but I expect the Redbirds to have an answer this time around. 

Illinois State’s massive plus-nine rebounding edge in the first matchup cannot be ignored. We should see a similar stat line in this rematch, as Belmont owns a league-worst 30.5% offensive rebounding rate allowed in league play.

Bruce Thornton Under 19.5 points (-110) vs. Purdue

Ohio State leading scorer Bruce Thornton (20 points per game) just had a four-game streak of 21-plus points scored snapped against Iowa.

He finished with 10 points on 3-of-8 shooting, and failed to get to the free throw line more than five times for just the third time in the last eight games. 

Thornton had to take on more of the scoring load of late as Devin Royal, John Mobley, and Christoph Tilly, the team’s second, third, and fourth-leading scorers, have missed games.

But Royal and Mobley are back, and Royal torched Purdue for 16 points in last year’s meeting while Thornton was held to just seven field goal attempts (and one 2-point attempt).

Jeremy Fears Over 15.5 points (-120) vs. Indiana

Jeremy Fears scored 23 points on 7-of-8 shooting in the first matchup against Indiana. That was his fourth-highest scoring total this season, and it could have been an even bigger night had he not gone 1-for-6 from 3-point range.

That game was also one of four in Big Ten play where Fears dominated possession with a 36% rate or higher, as Tom Izzo consistently put him in pick-and-roll situations to exploit Indiana’s weaknesses. 

This is only a three-star play as Fears dished out 10 assists in that home win, so I am concerned about him being more pass-happy in this rematch.

But Michigan State also scored 23 points in transition against the Hoosiers, and a similar output should raise Fears’ ceiling for points.

💡 How I'm betting college basketball today

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.

Illinois State is 9-4 ATS as a home favorite this season. That has me backing the Redbirds as a one-unit play (instead of two or more units) like all my other picks, even though they are my favorite play of the day.

From a player prop perspective, I am following the trends of past data in Big Ten matchups, as Purdue seemed to have the answer to containing Bruce Thornton last season, while Jeremy Fears is looking to torch Indiana’s drop coverage for a second time this year.

🚀 Best college basketball parlay picks today

In addition to the four wagers above, I am adding a play on Merrimack’s moneyline odds as a fifth leg for this parlay.

The Warriors are 8-1 in their last nine and are facing a Niagara team off a win, but the Purple Eagles have beaten consecutive D-I opponents just once all season. Adding Merrimack to this parlay brings the odds from +1116 to a more enticing +1347.