🏀 Cal Baptist vs. Kansas Prediction & Picks: March Madness First Round (March 20)
No. 4 Kansas is 4-5 in its last nine games and now faces upset-minded No. 13 Cal Baptist on Friday, a team making its tournament debut with just two losses since Jan. 8.
My best Cal Baptist vs. Kansas prediction for the tilt at Viejas Arena in San Diego focuses on the defensive efficiency of both teams. Kansas is favored by 14.5, but in what I expect to be a low-scoring March Madness game, Cal Baptist is being undervalued by oddsmakers. Tipoff is set for 9:45 p.m. ET, airing on CBS.
For more tournament picks, check out our March Madness predictions.
🏀 Cal Baptist vs. Kansas picks & odds: March Madness First Round
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Baptist +14.5 | -110 via bet365 | 1.5u -> 1.36u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Under 137.5 | -105 via FanDuel | 2u -> 1.90u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Darryn Peterson Under 1.5 assists | -115 via bet365 | 1.5u -> 1.31u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 5 units | Max profit: 4.57 units
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🏆 Who will win Cal Baptist vs. Kansas?
See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
I'm taking Kansas to win this game by five points. Cal Baptist is ranked 50th in defensive efficiency, which will slow Kansas' offense down, but ultimately, the Lancers' lack of offensive efficiency (191st) will be their downfall late.
Score prediction: Kansas 64, Cal Baptist 59
💰 Cal Baptist vs. Kansas prediction & best bet
Under 137.5 (-105)
Both of these teams rank in the top 50 in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. And what makes this stat even more impactful is how slow both teams play. KenPom ranks Kansas 164th in adjusted tempo, while Cal Baptist is even worse, ranking 265th.
And while I believe Kansas could end up scoring in the 70s, I never see Cal Baptist getting into the mid-60s or higher. The Lancers rank 267th in shooting percentage (43.2%), and they're probably going to shoot even worse from the field against a Kansas defense that ranks third in opponent field goal percentage (38.8%).
🔥 Best Cal Baptist vs. Kansas player prop bet
Darryn Peterson Under 1.5 assists (-115)
Cal Baptist is allowing the 14th-fewest assists per game, giving up just 10.8 per contest. Kansas enters this game averaging just 14.3 assists per game, which is tied for 127th in the nation.
Peterson is currently third on Kansas, averaging just 1.7 assists per game. He's recorded one assist in each of his last two performances, and he's yet to dish out more than four assists in a game this season, giving him a very low ceiling. In fact, he has fewer than two assists in 14 of his 22 games this season.
🚀 Cal Baptist vs. Kansas same-game parlay
Cal Baptist's defense is good enough to keep the Lancers in the game. But even if Kansas does win this game by double figures, I simply don't see how Cal Baptist scores more than 60, so I'm very confident in this Under. And while Peterson is averaging over 1.5 assists per game, this total from bet365 makes me feel like oddsmakers are overvaluing him in what could prove to be a very difficult matchup.
💵 Cal Baptist vs. Kansas SGP picks
- Cal Baptist +14.5
- Under 137.5
- Darryn Peterson Under 1.5 assists
Best odds: +581 via bet365 (0.5u -> 2.95u)
💵 My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-14 | +1.09 units ✅ | +3.6% ✅ |
| Game picks | 6-8 | -1.83 units ❌ | -9.6% ❌ |
| Player props | 2-2 | -0.87 units ❌ | -13.3% ❌ |
| Parlays | 2-4 | +3.79 units ✅ | +75.7% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting Cal Baptist vs. Kansas: March Madness strategy
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
If Cal Baptist can't score, then there's no way this game goes Over, so I'll wager two units on the Under. Additionally, I think that Kansas' offense is going to struggle a lot against an undervalued Cal Baptist defense, so I'll also risk 1.5 units on Cal Baptist +14.5. As for Peterson, he's proven all season that no matter how much Kansas scores, he struggles to tally assists. So in a game where his team could be stifled, his Under is a safe play. Still, this number is so low, I'll only risk 1.5 units.
📊 Live Cal Baptist vs. Kansas odds: March Madness First Round
Kansas opened as a 9.5-point favorite, and the spread quickly moved to 14.5. That's such a big jump that I expect this number to fall a bit before tipoff. However, I'd bet this as low as +10.5, so there's no risk of Cal Baptist becoming unplayable. The total opened at 133.5, and it has quickly climbed to 137.5. This is great news for those of us who have the Under. This number could be 10 or 15 points higher than the final score will be.
📈 Cal Baptist vs. Kansas betting trends
| Cal Baptist | Statistic | Kansas |
|---|---|---|
| 25-8 | Record | 23-10 |
| 19-14 | ATS record | 20-13 |
| 12-21 | O/U record | 11-22 |
| 106th | KenPom ranking | 21st |
| 107.9 (191st) | Adj. offensive rating (rank) | 118.3 (57th) |
| 101.9 (50th) | Adj. defensive rating (rank) | 93.9 (10th) |
📺 How to watch Cal Baptist vs. Kansas: March Madness First Round
- Date: Friday, March 20
- Tipoff: 9:45 p.m. ET
- Location: Viejas Arena (San Diego)
- TV: CBS
- Streaming: March Madness Live
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