🏀 Cal Baptist vs. Kansas Prediction, Picks & Parlay: March Madness First Round Odds Tonight
No. 4 Kansas hasn't looked the part lately, dropping five of its last nine games heading into tonight's first-round clash with No. 13 Cal Baptist. The Jayhawks are still 13.5-point favorites ahead of a 9:45 p.m. ET tip at Viejas Arena in San Diego on CBS, though the spread has pulled back from its peak of 14.5.
My best Cal Baptist vs. Kansas prediction expects this to be tighter than the market suggests, fading a Kansas team that just lost to Houston in the Big 12 semifinals. My March Madness predictions also target a Darryn Peterson assists prop against a Lancers defense that allows the 14th-fewest assists per game.
🏀 Cal Baptist vs. Kansas picks & odds: March Madness First Round
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Baptist +14.5 | -110 via bet365 | 1.5u -> 1.36u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Under 137.5 | -105 via FanDuel | 2u -> 1.90u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Darryn Peterson Under 1.5 assists | -115 via bet365 | 1.5u -> 1.31u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 5 units | Max profit: 4.57 units
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💵 Latest Cal Baptist vs. Kansas odds & betting splits
Latest Cal Baptist vs. Kansas odds and betting splits via BetMGM.
| Market | Cal Baptist | Kansas | Betting splits |
|---|---|---|---|
| ↔️ Spread | +13.5 (-102) | -13.5 (-118) | 39% Cal Baptist / 61% Kansas |
| ↕️ Total (O/U) | O 141.5 (-110) | U 141.5 (-110) | 36% Over / 64% Under |
| 💵 Moneyline | +675 | -1100 | 89% Cal Baptist / 11% Kansas |
Kansas is drawing 61% of spread bets, but Cal Baptist is commanding 89% of moneyline action as the public looks for a value longshot. The total has climbed significantly from its 133.5 opener to 141.5, with 64% of bets still backing the Under despite the eight-point rise.
🏆 Who will win Cal Baptist vs. Kansas tonight?
I'm taking Kansas to win this game by five points. Cal Baptist is ranked 50th in defensive efficiency, which will slow Kansas' offense down, but ultimately, the Lancers' lack of offensive efficiency (191st) will be their downfall late.
Score prediction: Kansas 64, Cal Baptist 59
💰 Cal Baptist vs. Kansas prediction & best bet tonight
See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
Under 137.5 (-105)
Both of these teams rank in the top 50 in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. And what makes this stat even more impactful is how slow both teams play. KenPom ranks Kansas 164th in adjusted tempo, while Cal Baptist is even worse, ranking 265th.
And while I believe Kansas could end up scoring in the 70s, I never see Cal Baptist getting into the mid-60s or higher. The Lancers rank 267th in shooting percentage (43.2%), and they're probably going to shoot even worse from the field against a Kansas defense that ranks third in opponent field goal percentage (38.8%).
🔥 Best Cal Baptist vs. Kansas player prop bet tonight
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
Darryn Peterson Under 1.5 assists (-115)
Cal Baptist is allowing the 14th-fewest assists per game, giving up just 10.8 per contest. Kansas enters this game averaging just 14.3 assists per game, which is tied for 127th in the nation.
Peterson is currently third on Kansas, averaging just 1.7 assists per game. He's recorded one assist in each of his last two performances, and he's yet to dish out more than four assists in a game this season, giving him a very low ceiling. In fact, he has fewer than two assists in 14 of his 22 games this season.
🚀 Cal Baptist vs. Kansas same-game parlay
Cal Baptist's defense is good enough to keep the Lancers in the game. But even if Kansas does win this game by double figures, I simply don't see how Cal Baptist scores more than 60, so I'm very confident in this Under. And while Peterson is averaging over 1.5 assists per game, this total from bet365 makes me feel like oddsmakers are overvaluing him in what could prove to be a very difficult matchup.
💵 Cal Baptist vs. Kansas SGP picks
- Cal Baptist +14.5
- Under 137.5
- Darryn Peterson Under 1.5 assists
Best odds: +581 via bet365 (0.5u -> 2.95u)
💵 My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-14 | +1.09 units ✅ | +3.6% ✅ |
| Game picks | 6-8 | -1.83 units ❌ | -9.6% ❌ |
| Player props | 2-2 | -0.87 units ❌ | -13.3% ❌ |
| Parlays | 2-4 | +3.79 units ✅ | +75.7% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting Cal Baptist vs. Kansas: March Madness strategy
If Cal Baptist can't score, then there's no way this game goes Over, so I'll wager two units on the Under. Additionally, I think that Kansas' offense is going to struggle a lot against an undervalued Cal Baptist defense, so I'll also risk 1.5 units on Cal Baptist +14.5. As for Peterson, he's proven all season that no matter how much Kansas scores, he struggles to tally assists. So in a game where his team could be stifled, his Under is a safe play. Still, this number is so low, I'll only risk 1.5 units.
📊 Live Cal Baptist vs. Kansas odds: March Madness First Round
Kansas' spread surged from the 9.5 opener to 14.5 before pulling back to 13.5 at BetMGM, suggesting the initial move overshot. The total has been the bigger story, climbing from 133.5 all the way to 141.5 for an eight-point jump. Despite that movement, 64% of bets remain on the Under, which aligns with the pace profile of two teams ranked outside the top 160 in adjusted tempo.
📈 Cal Baptist vs. Kansas betting trends
| Cal Baptist | Statistic | Kansas |
|---|---|---|
| 25-8 | Record | 23-10 |
| 19-14 | ATS record | 20-13 |
| 12-21 | O/U record | 11-22 |
| 106th | KenPom ranking | 21st |
| 107.9 (191st) | Adj. offensive rating (rank) | 118.3 (57th) |
| 101.9 (50th) | Adj. defensive rating (rank) | 93.9 (10th) |
📺 How to watch Cal Baptist vs. Kansas: March Madness First Round
- Date: Friday, March 20
- Tipoff: 9:45 p.m. ET
- Location: Viejas Arena (San Diego)
- TV: CBS
- Streaming: March Madness Live
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