🏀 Best March Madness Upset Picks Today: First Round Underdog Plays for Friday (March 20)

None of our college basketball experts are picking a moneyline underdog to win outright on Friday, but our March Madness upset picks today feature two lower seeds to advance in bracket upsets and six ATS underdogs worth backing to cover the spread. For more NCAA tournament coverage, check out all of our March Madness predictions.

We also broke down all of the best March Madness player props for the full Friday slate.

🚨 Best March Madness upset picks today: Lower seeds to win outright

Rob Paul breaks down his best March Madness survivor picks today for Friday's slate.

Utah State ML (-135) over No. 8 Villanova (4:10 p.m. ET, TNT)

Brenden Schaeffer backs the 9-seed Aggies as the better team in this 8-9 matchup.

"Despite coming from the superior league, I'm looking at Villanova as susceptible to an early exit due to its pedigree against quality teams. The Wildcats are 1-6 against Quad 1 opponents that made the NCAA Tournament field. Utah State is 4-4 in Quad 1 games and has superior metrics in KenPom and the NET. If Utah State's elite offense (28th in ORtg) stakes out a lead, the Wildcats rank 296th in adjusted tempo and aren't built to storm back from a deficit. The Aggies are efficient from inside the arc (59.3%, 11th in nation) and should expose Villanova's two-point defense (51.5%, 170th)."

➡️ Full Utah State vs. Villanova prediction

Iowa ML (-135) over No. 8 Clemson (6:50 p.m. ET, TNT)

Schaeffer likes the 9-seed Hawkeyes as the more balanced team in a grind-it-out matchup.

"At 25th in KenPom, I feel Iowa is stronger than a typical 9-seed. The Hawkeyes rank 31st and 30th in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies — balance that historically bodes well in this tournament. Clemson's offensive efficiency (71st) is the outlier to note in this matchup, as Iowa's profile contains fewer flaws for a game flow between teams with stylistic similarities (adjusted tempos at 357th and 333rd, respectively). With few points and possessions expected, I lean toward the more-balanced Hawkeyes, who also happen to be the group with stronger free-throw efficiency (77.0%, 33rd) to close out a close game."

➡️ Full Iowa vs. Clemson prediction

🔥 Best March Madness ATS underdog picks today

See all of our March Madness predictions today for odds and picks every game.

Hofstra +12.5 (-104) vs. No. 4 Alabama (3:15 p.m. ET, truTV) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Phil Wood features his top underdog play of the day: a Hofstra squad that is 21-11 ATS exploiting Alabama's porous perimeter defense.

"Alabama is averaging 91.7 points per game, the most in the nation, but the Crimson Tide rank 67th in adjusted defensive rating according to KenPom, which is a big reason they're just 13-18 ATS this season. Alabama may also be without Aden Holloway, its second-leading scorer, on Friday. Hofstra ranks 33rd in 3-point field goal percentage (36.8%), which could be a huge problem for an Alabama defense that ranks 169th in opponent 3-point field goal percentage. This excellent shooting, combined with the nation's 19th-best scoring defense (66.1 points per game), has allowed the Pride to go 21-11 ATS this season."

➡️ Full Hofstra vs. Alabama prediction

Northern Iowa +9.5 (-104) vs. No. 5 St. John's (7:10 p.m. ET, CBS) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Schaeffer believes UNI's elite defense and grinding tempo can keep the Panthers in it against a St. John's offense that can't shoot.

"I'd love to pick a trendy outright upset, because Northern Iowa's elite defensive efficiency (24th) against a St. John's team that struggles to find its shot is a recipe to make things interesting. UNI's brutal free-throw shooting (69.7%, 279th) keeps me from fully entertaining the idea. But to keep it close? Absolutely. St. John's doesn't shoot the three well (33.2%, 215th), and it's not especially efficient on two-point field goals (51.6%, 190th). That provides an opening for Northern Iowa, who pairs sturdy defense with the third-slowest adjusted tempo in the country. UNI wants a rock fight, and St. John's may not have the necessary characteristics to avoid one."

➡️ Full Northern Iowa vs. St. John's prediction

Cal Baptist +14.5 (-110) vs. No. 4 Kansas (9:45 p.m. ET, CBS) ⭐⭐⭐

Wood projects a five-point Kansas win, well inside the number, as two elite defensive teams meet in a glacial-paced game.

"My best Cal Baptist vs. Kansas prediction for the tilt at Viejas Arena in San Diego focuses on the defensive efficiency of both teams. Kansas is favored by 14.5, but in what I expect to be a low-scoring March Madness game, Cal Baptist is being undervalued by oddsmakers. Both of these teams rank in the top 50 in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. And what makes this stat even more impactful is how slow both teams play. KenPom ranks Kansas 164th in adjusted tempo, while Cal Baptist is even worse, ranking 265th."

➡️ Full Cal Baptist vs. Kansas prediction

Furman +20.5 (-110) vs. No. 2 UConn (10:00 p.m. ET, TBS) ⭐⭐⭐

Wood's score projection (UConn 71, Furman 55) puts the Huskies well inside the number, and a 2-2 stretch run makes the spread hard to trust.

"The Huskies are the 20.5-point betting favorite, and while they should win this game easily, I'm worried about how close the final score will be after they were blown out in the Big East final. UConn is just 2-2 in its last four games, too inconsistent to trust covering a 20.5-point spread."

➡️ Full Furman vs. UConn prediction

Prairie View A&M +35.5 (-110) vs. No. 1 Florida (9:25 p.m. ET, TNT) ⭐⭐⭐

Wood is not picking the upset, but the Panthers' elite ATS record and Florida's habit of calling off the dogs makes the number unplayable for the Gators.

"After taking down Lehigh, Prairie View A&M is 22-9 against the spread this season, the fourth-best mark in the country. This is a team that challenged itself in the nonconference, facing Missouri, Oklahoma State, LSU, and Texas A&M. Though noncompetitive, Prairie View A&M kept all of those games within 30 points. Florida is averaging 86.8 points per game, 12th-best in the country. But the Gators have shown a willingness to call off the dogs throughout the season, winning just two games by more than 35 points."

➡️ Full Prairie View A&M vs. Florida prediction

Wright State +18.5 (-110) vs. No. 3 Virginia (1:50 p.m. ET, TBS) ⭐

Wood includes a low-confidence half-unit hedge on Wright State as part of a correlated parlay, noting both teams can score in what shapes up as a high-total game.

"The only play I'm not very confident in is Wright State against the spread, but I love what I'm seeing from these other wagers so much that I'm willing to risk a little in a less confident spot."

➡️ Full Wright State vs. Virginia prediction

🏀 More March Madness predictions today (Friday, March 20)