🏀 Best March Madness Player Props Today: First Round Picks & Odds for Friday (March 20)
After a riveting first day of the 2026 NCAA Tournament, our best March Madness player props today cover all 16 first-round games from noon to midnight. Our experts have highlighted one standout prop bet per matchup from their full game previews. For more tournament coverage, check out all of our March Madness predictions for every game on the Friday slate.
We also highlighted our best March Madness upset picks for the rest of the first round.
🏀 Santa Clara vs. Kentucky player prop (12:15 p.m. ET, CBS)
Denzel Aberdeen Over 4.5 assists (+120, bet365)
Brenden Schaeffer covers the first game of Friday's slate and likes a contrarian assist prop on Kentucky's point guard.
"Aberdeen has been distributing the ball effectively for Kentucky this season, averaging 3.6 assists per game. He's increased his playmaking in this area of late, averaging 4.85 assists per game over his past seven contests. This is an area in which Kentucky can exploit Santa Clara, as the Broncos permit 15.2 assists per game to the opposition (295th). They've been particularly generous of late, allowing 19.0 assists per game over their past three games. With the anticipated fast pace of this game (both adjusted tempos rank among the top 125) and the lofty game total (160.5), Aberdeen should be dishing out dimes with regularity."
➡️ Full Santa Clara vs. Kentucky prediction
🏀 Akron vs. Texas Tech player prop (12:40 p.m. ET, truTV)
Bowen Hardman 3+ made 3-pointers (+185, bet365)
Schaeffer targets the Zips' hot-shooting senior guard to keep firing even in a losing effort.
"While Akron's deficiencies in defending the three will ultimately be its undoing in the game margin, this is a group that will go down swinging with what it does best: jacking up 3-pointers. Akron's 10.9 made 3-pointers per game rank 10th in the nation, and senior guard Bowen Hardman has come on strong to lead the charge in recent weeks. Hardman shoots 40.7% from three on the year and has knocked down three or more triples in four of his past five games during March, going 18-33 (54.5%) from 3-point range this month. Though Texas Tech allows just 31.4% on opposing 3-point attempts, this game script should see Akron looking to shoot its way back into the contest, leading to a script for Hardman to see ample volume to chase down this prop."
➡️ Full Akron vs. Texas Tech prediction
🏀 Long Island vs. Arizona player prop (1:35 p.m. ET, TNT)
Tobe Awaka Over 9.5 rebounds (+102, bet365)
Phil Wood likes Arizona's elite rebounder to feast against one of the worst rebounding teams in the field.
"Awaka is the top rebounder on the third-best rebounding team in the nation. He's averaging 9.5 boards per game and has 15 double-digit rebounding performances, and he's about to take on a team that ranks 160th in rebounds per contest. The only reason this isn't a five-star play is that Awaka could see fewer minutes than usual in a blowout. That said, he grabbed 18 rebounds in 19 minutes against Utah Tech and 16 in 20 minutes against Denver. He's also only played fewer than 17 minutes in three games all season, and each of those performances came against ranked teams that got him in foul trouble."
➡️ Full Long Island vs. Arizona prediction
🏀 Wright State vs. Virginia player prop (1:50 p.m. ET, TBS)
Thijs De Ridder Over 16.5 points (-105, bet365)
Wood finds value in Virginia's leading scorer in a matchup tailor-made for his interior game.
"De Ridder is Virginia's leading scorer, averaging 15.5 points per game. However, this wager has more to do with how De Ridder scores than how much he scores. De Ridder has only made 35 3-pointers all season, attempting just 103. He ranks fifth on Virginia in each category. But Wright State is allowing just 20.2 points per game from 3-pointers, which ranks 57th in the nation. However, the Raiders are allowing opponents to score 40.8 points from inside the arc, which ranks 323rd in the country. This is a matchup tailor-made for De Ridder, and since I expect Virginia to score nearly 90 points, the team's leading scorer should top his season average by at least one point."
➡️ Full Wright State vs. Virginia prediction
🏀 Tennessee State vs. Iowa State player prop (2:50 p.m. ET, CBS)
Tamin Lipsey Over 4.5 assists (+100, bet365)
Wood calls this one of the better values on the board: Lipsey's season average, priced at even money.
"Lipsey is averaging 5.0 assists per game, and yet, for some reason, bet365 has him reaching his season average in this game with a price of +100. Lipsey dished out seven assists in the Big 12 semifinal, and he has at least four assists in four consecutive games. This season, he's recorded at least five assists in 18 of his 31 games, and he averaged 6.1 in six games against non-power conference teams. Tennessee State allowed opponents to shoot 44.4% this season, third-worst in the Ohio Valley. With Iowa State the second-best shooting team in the nation (49%), there shouldn't be too many misses from the Cyclones. That's great news for Lipsey, as the team's leading setup man."
➡️ Full Tennessee State vs. Iowa State prediction
🏀 Hofstra vs. Alabama player prop (3:15 p.m. ET, truTV)
Preston Edmead Over 2.5 made 3-pointers (-112, bet365)
Wood expects Hofstra's leading shooter to exploit the nation's highest-scoring offense's biggest defensive weakness.
"As I've already highlighted, Alabama struggles defending the 3-point line, which is why I expect a huge game from Hofstra's leading 3-point shooter. Edmead has made a team-high 90 3-pointers, knocking down 38.3% of his attempts from beyond the arc. Edmead has also made multiple 3-pointers in five of his last six games, so he enters the tournament shooting well. He's attempted at least six 3-pointers in 19 of his last 23 games, and should put up plenty of shots in this game with his team attempting to keep pace with the nation's highest-scoring team."
➡️ Full Hofstra vs. Alabama prediction
🏀 Utah State vs. Villanova player prop (4:10 p.m. ET, TNT)
Acaden Lewis Under 12.5 points (-135, bet365)
Schaeffer fades the Wildcats' freshman guard, who has struggled badly down the stretch.
"Villanova freshman guard Acaden Lewis is a key piece to the Wildcats' success, but he's wilted in recent games including a meager five-point performance against Georgetown in Villanova's early ouster from the Big East Tournament. Averaging 12.3 PPG, Lewis has failed to reach double-digit scoring in three of his past four games. He's inefficient from the free-throw line (58.5%) and from three-point range (27.1%), and faces a Utah State team that can effectively combat his ability to drive to the rim (57th in two-point defense, 48.7%)."
➡️ Full Utah State vs. Villanova prediction
🏀 Miami (OH) vs. Tennessee player prop (4:25 p.m. ET, TBS)
Eian Elmer Under 2.5 made threes (-145, bet365)
Schaeffer fades Miami's First Four hero, whose three-point barrage won't translate against Tennessee's elite perimeter defense.
"Miami (OH) sharpshooter Eian Elmer knocked down six of his nine three-point attempts in the Redhawks' First Four win over SMU, but in keeping with the theme of my read on this matchup, I don't see Miami having that same level of success on deep shooting against Tennessee. Elmer has fallen short of three made threes in 21 out of 33 games this season (63.6%), a rate greater than the 59.18% implied probability based on -145 odds for Under 2.5 made threes from bet365."
➡️ Full Miami (OH) vs. Tennessee prediction
🏀 Iowa vs. Clemson player prop (6:50 p.m. ET, TNT)
Ace Buckner Under 2.5 assists (-135, bet365)
Schaeffer targets a low-ceiling game for Clemson's freshman distributor in the slowest matchup on the board.
"Similar to Clemson defensively, Iowa suppresses assists, allowing just 11.6 per game. Though Clemson allows even fewer (10.6 per game), we want to pair up this tendency of the Hawkeyes defensively with the Tigers general deficit in this regard. As a team, Clemson averages just 12.8 assists per game (231st) and doesn't project to rack them up here. Freshman Ace Buckner has been distributing effectively coinciding with an increase to his minutes recently, but he's cleared this assist total in just 10 of 34 games this season (29.4%). Though Buckner is trending up with 3+ assists in three of his past four games, I'm looking to target his Under as this feels like the wrong matchup in which to adjust his assists line up to 2.5."
➡️ Full Iowa vs. Clemson prediction
🏀 Northern Iowa vs. St. John's player prop (7:10 p.m. ET, CBS)
Zuby Ejiofor Over 7.5 rebounds (+102, FanDuel)
Schaeffer likes St. John's interior presence to dominate the glass in a rock fight against a Panthers team that can't rebound.
"We like Zuby Ejiofor to make his mark on the glass in this matchup, although the trends suggest he'll have to outpace his 3.9 defensive rebounds per game to clear his line of 7.5 boards at FanDuel. Since UNI is virtually useless on the offensive glass (19.8%, 356th), I expect that he can make that happen. Ejiofor will have to work for it on the offensive glass to cut through against a disciplined defensive rebounding unit (75.5%, 31st), but that's his strength, averaging 3.3 offensive rebounds per game. St. John's averages nearly seven more rebounds per game than the Panthers. Ejiofor logged nine or more rebounds in two of his three Big East tournament games."
➡️ Full Northern Iowa vs. St. John's prediction
🏀 UCF vs. UCLA player prop (7:25 p.m. ET, TBS)
Tyler Bilodeau Over 17.5 points (-110, bet365)
Schaeffer backs UCLA's versatile scorer against one of the worst defensive teams in the tournament field.
"UCF allows opponents to connect on 53.2% of their two-point attempts (247th) and the Knights allow 8.1 made threes per game (229th). They permit connections on 34.0% (187th) of opponent attempts from deep-range. The matchup is a scorer's paradise for a forward like Tyler Bilodeau, who is efficient from inside the arc while knocking down 46.4% of his shots from beyond it. Bilodeau is expected to be available for Friday's game despite dealing with a knee strain. Bilodeau averages 17.6 PPG and has posted Over 17.5 points in 19 of 31 games played (61.3%). With -110 odds on this prop from bet365 equating to a 52.38% implied probability, we're getting strong value here provided Mick Cronin isn't playing 4D chess with reports on Bilodeau's health."
➡️ Full UCF vs. UCLA prediction
🏀 Queens vs. Purdue player prop (7:35 p.m. ET, truTV)
Trey Kaufman-Renn Over 9.5 rebounds (-105, bet365)
Wood projects a massive rebounding performance from Purdue's big man against one of the worst rebounding defenses in the country.
"Kaufman-Renn leads Purdue with 8.5 rebounds per game, as he enters a matchup with one of the worst rebounding teams in the country. Kaufman-Renn is particularly good on the offensive glass, recording 2.9 per contest this season. He should go well over that number as Queens allows opponents to grab 30.1% of their offensive rebounding opportunities, which ranks 264th nationally. And while I got burned backing Kaufman-Renn in the Big Ten championship game, where he recorded just three rebounds, he's still grabbed at least 10 rebounds in 13 games this season. That's despite only playing more than 20 minutes against three non-power conference teams all season. He managed at least 11 rebounds in each of those contests."
➡️ Full Queens vs. Purdue prediction
🏀 Prairie View A&M vs. Florida player prop (9:25 p.m. ET, TNT)
Thomas Haugh Over 1.5 made 3-pointers (+122, FanDuel)
Wood sees Haugh's recent shooting slump as a pricing opportunity against a defense that can't guard the three.
"Prairie View A&M is allowing opponents to make 33.3% of their 3-pointers, which ranks 155th in the nation. And while Florida ranks 331st in 3-point field goal percentage, Haugh is shooting 33.1% from deep, averaging 1.8 makes per game. Haugh has struggled leading up to the tournament, making one or fewer 3-pointers in four of his last five games. However, Haugh has also made at least two 3-pointers in 19 games this season, and this is a fantastic matchup. I believe that this price would be much worse if Haugh weren't in a slump, so take advantage of this excellent number from FanDuel."
➡️ Full Prairie View A&M vs. Florida prediction
🏀 Cal Baptist vs. Kansas player prop (9:45 p.m. ET, CBS)
Darryn Peterson Under 1.5 assists (-115, bet365)
Wood fades Kansas' projected lottery pick as a distributor in the slowest, lowest-scoring game on the board.
"Cal Baptist is allowing the 14th-fewest assists per game, giving up just 10.8 per contest. Kansas enters this game averaging just 14.3 assists per game, which is tied for 127th in the nation. Peterson is currently third on Kansas, averaging just 1.7 assists per game. He's recorded one assist in each of his last two performances, and he's yet to dish out more than four assists in a game this season, giving him a very low ceiling. In fact, he has fewer than two assists in 14 of his 22 games this season."
➡️ Full Cal Baptist vs. Kansas prediction
🏀 Furman vs. UConn player prop (10:00 p.m. ET, TBS)
Silas Demary Jr. Over 6.5 assists (+102, bet365)
Wood sees UConn's point guard as drastically underpriced after a rough Big East Tournament run.
"It was a rough Big East Tournament for Demary, who managed just eight assists in three games. However, he's still averaging 6.2 assists per game, 3.5 more than any other UConn player, and he's recorded at least eight assists in five of his last 10 games. Demary played five games against non-power conference teams this season, recording at least seven assists in three of those contests. And while Furman is allowing just 11.9 assists per game (65th in the nation), most of their success came in a conference where only one opponent averaged more than 15 assists per game. UConn ranks ninth in the country, averaging 18.4 per contest."
➡️ Full Furman vs. UConn prediction
🏀 Missouri vs. Miami player prop (10:10 p.m. ET, truTV)
Mark Mitchell Over 19.5 points (-112, bet365)
Schaeffer backs Missouri's star to pour it on regardless of the final result.
"Win or lose, Mark Mitchell is going to get his. Mitchell is coming off two games in a row in which he poured in 32 points in a losing effort. The Tigers offense, almost to a fault, flows through Mitchell's brilliance in getting to the rack and to the line. Miami ranks outside the top 125 teams in opposing two-point percentage (50.8%) which is to say, the Hurricanes aren't among the elite at stopping what Mitchell does best. He shoots about 58.5% from two-point range and has logged 20+ field-goal attempts in his last couple of games. This line is inflated above Mitchell's season average (18.3 PPG) but it's still worth attacking due to how one-dimensional the Tigers have become offensively as they look for Mitchell to drag them kicking and screaming into the Round of 32."
➡️ Full Missouri vs. Miami prediction
🏀 More March Madness predictions today (Friday, March 20)
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