🏀 Baylor vs. Minnesota Prediction & Picks: College Basketball Crown Quarterfinals (April 1)

Baylor and Minnesota are each competing in the College Basketball Crown for the first time after finishing with disappointing .500 or worse records. This second of two quarterfinal matchups on Wednesday night tips off at 10:30 p.m. ET from MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, airing on FS1. The Bears are a 3.5-point betting favorite.

My Baylor vs. Minnesota prediction expects the Golden Gophers’ experience to pay huge dividends in keeping the team focused amid the strange three-week gap leading up to this game. which will lead to a cover as neutral site underdogs. I also feature a Minnesota team total among my top College Basketball Crown predictions.  

🏀 Baylor vs. Minnesota picks & odds: College Basketball Crown Quarterfinals

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 3.0 units | Max profit: 2.73 units

🏆 Who will win Baylor vs. Minnesota?

I have too much respect for Scott Drew in tournament settings to predict an outright upset. But Baylor’s 3-7 stretch over its final 10 games leaves something to be desired, and I love Minnesota’s veteran leadership as the 36th-most experienced team in the country. I expect this game to go down to the final possession.

Score prediction: Baylor 76, Minnesota 75

💰 Baylor vs. Minnesota prediction & best bet

Minnesota +3.5 (-105)

Minnesota didn’t have a single non-conference win over a team ranked higher than No. 185 in KenPom’s ratings. But the rugged Big Ten has it prepared, as the conference has two teams in the Final Four (and had four in the Elite 8).

The Golden Gophers lost by 10 points apiece to both Big Ten Final Four participants (Illinois and Michigan), but they scored 1.04 points per possession or more against each. The Wolverines had such a difficult time defending Niko Medved’s off-ball action, that Minnesota shot 62% from 2-point range against one of D-I’s most elite interior defenses.

🔥 Best Baylor vs. Minnesota team prop bet

Minnesota team total Over 72.5 (-115)

If you want an idea how difficult Niko Medved's offense is to defend, look no further than when the Golden Gophers scored two points per possession against Michigan via flex cuts, and 1.3 points per possession via off-ball screens. To put that into perspective, the Wolverines lead the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage allowed, while ranking third in 2-point defense.

Since a seven-game losing streak in conference that ended on Feb. 1, Minnesota ranks in the top-50 of Bart Torvik's power ratings. In that span, its offense is top-52 in effective field goal percentage and adjusted offensive efficiency, and it jacks up 3-pointers at the 34th-highest rate. That perimeter prowess should come in handy when facing a Bears defense that ranks 283rd in defending the 3-point line, especially if Scott Drew uses his 1-3-1 zone to limit Minnesota's movement.

🚀 Baylor vs. Minnesota same-game parlay

DraftKings was the only other one of our best sports betting sites offering a team total at the time of this writing. But compared to FanDuel's odds for the total with the Over juiced to -112, that made the former my go-to sportsbook for this same-game parlay, even though DraftKings' team total price was slightly better (-115).

💵 My betting record for college basketball

All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.

💡 How I'm betting Baylor vs. Minnesota: College Basketball Crown strategy

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.

There is always a risk in backing the Over in a game involving two teams that haven't played for three weeks. But I am banking on that layoff affecting the defenses more than the offenses, which is why all three of my wagers are one-unit plays despite varying levels of confidence.

Minnesota has a much better ATS record as an underdog (9-8-1, 52.9%) than a favorite (5-9, 35.7%). Because of it has also won six games outright as an underdog, I will also be sprinkling a half-unit on the Golden Gophers' +150 moneyline odds at DraftKings, despite them being 0-4 SU in neutral site games this year.

📊 Live Baylor vs. Minnesota odds: College Basketball Crown Quarterfinals

FanDuel was the only one of our best sports betting apps to see any movement on the point spread, as it quickly aligned with the rest of the market at -3.5 after opening a point lower at -2.5. Because the line has not budged from -3.5 for a week now, I do not expect significant line movement between now and tipoff.

In comparison to the point spread, the total has seen much more movement, being bet up as high as 2.5 points from an opening number as low as 146. Only when FanDuel reached a high of 149.5 and Caesars reached 149 was there any buyback on the Under, suggesting that that is the ceiling for the total.

📈 Baylor vs. Minnesota betting trends

📺 How to watch Baylor vs. Minnesota: College Basketball Crown Quarterfinals

• Date: Wednesday, April 1
• Tipoff: 10:30 p.m. ET
• Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena (Las Vegas)
• TV: FS1
• Streaming: Fubo