🏀 Arkansas vs. Arizona Prediction Tonight: March Madness Sweet 16 Odds & Picks

No. 1 Arizona looks to stay on track for a national title as it faces No. 4 Arkansas in the Sweet 16 tonight. The Wildcats enter as an 8.5-point betting favorite for the 9:45 p.m. ET (CBS) tipoff at SAP Center in San Jose, Calif.

For my Arkansas vs. Arizona prediction tonight, I’m siding with the Razorbacks to stay close to the spread. I’m also including a Meleek Thomas scoring prop and a +631 same-game parlay as part of our March Madness predictions.

🏀 Arkansas vs. Arizona picks & odds: March Madness Sweet 16

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

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🏆 Who will win Arkansas vs. Arizona?

Arizona faces a lot of pressure, as this is its fourth Sweet 16 under head coach Tommy Lloyd, though it has yet to advance past this round. This will be the year the Wildcats get to their first Elite Eight under Lloyd, ending Arkansas' run in the Sweet 16 for the second consecutive year.

Score prediction: Arizona 86, Arkansas 79

💰 Arkansas vs. Arizona prediction & best bet

See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

Arkansas +8.5 (-110)

Arizona’s physical dominance was on display in its win over Utah State, as it outrebounded the Aggies 54-to-26 and attempted 28 more free throws. But pessimists will say the Wildcats should’ve won by more than 12 given those disparities, and Utah State even had the game within five points late.

Arkansas cannot expect to score much in transition or at the rim, as Arizona ranks in the 98th and 99th percentile in defensive efficiency metrics in those two areas, respectively.

Instead, the Razorbacks can pick-and-roll the Wildcats to death while spacing the floor for their elite backcourt tandem.

🔥 Best Arkansas vs. Arizona player prop bet

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.

Meleek Thomas Over 13.5 points (-104)

Arizona is likely spending the week figuring out how to slow down Darius Acuff Jr., who became the only player to score 60-plus points and record 10 or more assists with five or fewer turnovers over any two-game span in the NCAA Tournament. 

While Acuff has shined, Meleek Thomas has quietly averaged 20 points in the two NCAA Tournament wins. He is shooting 40% from beyond the arc, and an efficient 59% from 2-point range. That lofty scoring average is encouraging as he has only attempted two free throws in the last two games.

Arizona has a much different prep for Arkansas, as Utah State only ranked in the seventh percentile in efficiency in pick-and-roll offense. I look for John Calipari’s squad to use Acuff and Thomas to spread out the Wildcats, with the latter serving as an excellent complementary scoring option.

🚀 Arkansas vs. Arizona same-game parlay

FanDuel is my go-to top sports betting site for this same-game parlay, as it offers the best number and price on all three legs. While backing Thomas to go Over his projected points total seems to contradict the full-game Under, my thinking is that Arizona will sell out to limit Darius Acuff Jr.

💵 My betting record for college basketball

All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.

⛹️ NBA prospects to watch in Arkansas vs. Arizona

Arizona is the safest survivor pool pick in Rob Paul's March Madness survivor picks today.

Darius Acuff Jr.

Acuff is projected as a top-10 pick in this year’s NBA draft. The 6-foot-2 freshman is averaging 23.3 points per game on 48.6% shooting from the field, including 44.6% from 3-point range.

Major player props and best odds:

Acuff scored 36 points, including three 3-pointers, in the second round. However, he had just 24 points with two 3-pointers in the first round.

Brayden Burries

Arizona guard Brayden Burries is projected as a lottery pick in this year’s draft. The 6-foot-4 freshman is averaging 16 points per game on 49.9% shooting from the field, including 39.2% from beyond the arc.

Major player props and best odds:

Burries scored 16 points in the second round and 18 points in the first. He has made three or more 3-pointers in each of his first two games in this tournament.

- Corey Scott

💡 How I'm betting Arkansas vs. Arizona: March Madness strategy

All of my wagers are one-unit plays, though I toyed with the idea of risking more on Arkansas +8.5 as a contrarian play to the favorites' dominance thus far in this tournament.

But a play on the Razorbacks is backed by the trend that John Calipari entered with the best ATS record (9-3-1) of any active coach as an underdog in the NCAA Tournament (min. 7 games).

While Arkansas has averaged 95.5 points in its first two wins, Arizona's third-ranked defense based on adjusted defensive efficiency should help the Under cash for the ninth time in the Wildcats' 15th game against ranked opponents.

📊 Live Arkansas vs. Arizona odds: March Madness Sweet 16

Arizona opened at -7.5 and has been bet up to -8.5 across our best sports betting sites despite three-quarters of the tickets coming in on Arkansas. In the Round of 64 and Round of 32, closing favorites finished 39-9 SU and 29-19 ATS - the best ATS mark for favorites through this point in the tournament since 2008. Given that backdrop, I don't expect the line to move back toward the Razorbacks.

The total has seen even sharper movement, falling from 166.5 at open to 164.5 with the Under money winning out over the 69% of tickets on the Over. Arizona's third-ranked adjusted defensive efficiency is likely driving the number lower.

💵 Arkansas vs. Arizona odds movement & betting splits

Latest Arkansas vs. Arizona odds movement and betting splits via BetMGM.

Three-quarters of spread bets are on Arkansas, moving the line from Arizona -7.5 at open to -8.5 despite the lopsided ticket count on the Razorbacks. That's a full point of reverse line movement in Arizona's favor, suggesting the money (not the tickets) is driving the number.

The total has dropped sharply from 166.5 at open to 164.5, even with 69% of bets on the Over. Another case of the line moving against the majority. On the moneyline, 83% of tickets are on Arizona, which is no surprise given how dominant favorites have been through the first two rounds.

📈 Arkansas vs. Arizona betting trends

📺 How to watch Arkansas vs. Arizona: March Madness Sweet 16

• Date: Thursday, March 26
• Tipoff: 9:45 p.m. ET
• Location: SAP Center at San Jose (San Jose, Calif.)
• TV: CBS
• Streaming: Paramount+
• Spread: Arizona -8.5 (-115)
• Total: 164.5

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