🏀 Arizona vs. Houston Prediction & Odds: College Basketball Picks Today (Feb. 21)
College basketball history will be made today as this matchup between No. 4 Arizona and No. 2 Houston marks just the fifth time in AP poll history that there are two top-four matchups on the same day.
The Cougars are a 4.5-point betting favorite in this game which tips off from the Fertitta Center in Houston at 3 p.m. ET (ABC). As part of my college basketball predictions today, my Arizona vs. Houston prediction backs the home favorites to cover, while stifling one of the Wildcats’ best shooters from the perimeter.
🏀 Arizona vs. Houston picks & odds today: Feb. 21
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Bet type | Prediction | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game prediction | Houston -4.5 (-110) | 1u -> 0.91u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Over/Under total | Under 141.5 (-110) | 1u -> 0.91u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Player prop bet | Brayden Burries Under 1.5 3-pointers made (-112) | 1u -> 0.89u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 3.0 units | Max profit: 2.71 units
💰 Arizona vs. Houston prediction & best bet
Houston -4.5 (-110)
Arizona star freshman Koa Peat will miss his second straight game with a leg injury. Without him on Wednesday, the Wildcats scored just 75 points at home against BYU, who was dead last in Haslametrics’ Defensive Momentum metric. The Cougars had dropped to 62nd in defensive efficiency after underperforming versus their season norm defensively in eight straight games.
Houston impressively at one point had an 89.7% win probability to snap Iowa State’s then nine-game home winning streak over AP top-10 opponents. That was despite forcing the Cyclones into just three turnovers, their fewest in a game in program history.
Score prediction: Houston 72, Arizona 65
🔥 Best Arizona vs. Houston player prop bet
Brayden Burries Under 1.5 3-pointers made (-112)
Arizona true freshman Brayden Burries has shot 37.6% from beyond the arc this season, and an even better 39.7% in Big 12 play (14th-best). But Houston allows just 31.5% from 3-point range on the season, so I am not worried that it also allows such attempts at the second highest rate in the conference.
Burries has faced four teams ranked inside KenPom’s top 20 this season. In those games, he is 5-for-13 from beyond the arc, but made four of his 3-pointers in one game (at Kansas).
Consider this a contrarian play, as two of Burries’ four games with at least seven 3-point attempts have come within the last four games. The Under is juiced as high as -118 elsewhere, so I am taking advantage of the best return through bet365’s -112 odds.
🚀 Arizona vs. Houston same-game parlay
This is a matchup of two teams who rank in the top-seven in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, making the Under the preferred play on the total.
Houston is also an eye-popping 46-1 in home games since the start of the 2-23 season. That has me laying the points, as backing the Cougars against the spread as opposed to their -227 moneyline odds brings the payout for this three-leg parlay to +590.
💵 Arizona vs. Houston SGP picks
- Houston -4.5 (-110)
- Under 141.5 (-110)
- Brayden Burries Under 1.5 3-pointers made (-112)
Best odds: +590 via bet365 (1u -> 5.9u)
💡 How I'm betting Arizona vs. Houston
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.
These teams have combined for three of their five losses in the last two weeks. But I have more confidence in a Houston team that had a 10-point lead with seven minutes to go at Hilton Coliseum on Monday, and narrowly lost despite attempting 11 fewer free throws.
Arizona is concluding one of the toughest stretches any team has endured this season, with this being its fourth straight game against a top-22 KenPom team.
I am spreading three units evenly across the Cougars spread and the Under, while backing the Under on Brayden Burries’ made 3-pointers supports the wagers on the spread and total.
📊 Live Arizona vs. Houston odds
Houston has mostly floated between a 4.5 and 5.5-point favorite, with only DraftKings ever reaching a low of -3.5. I would not expect this line to ever reach -6 given that Arizona was one of the last two remaining unbeaten teams as recently as a week ago, and I wouldn’t bet the Cougars at anything past -4.5.
Only one top sports betting site opened its total as low as 139.5, and it was quickly bet up to 142.5. But it didn’t last at 142.5 long before ticking back down to 141.5, which has me confident in my play on the Under. But each of Arizona’s last six games against ranked opponents have finished with a total of 143-plus points, so I wouldn’t bet this total at anything lower than the current number.
📈 Arizona vs. Houston betting trends
| Arizona | Statistic | Houston |
|---|---|---|
| 24-2 | W-L record | 23-3 |
| 15-11 | ATS record | 14-12 |
| 13-13 | O/U record | 11-15 |
| 3-2 | Last 5 games | 4-1 |
📺 How to watch Arizona vs. Houston
- Date: Saturday, Feb. 21
- Tipoff: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: Fertitta Center (Houston)
- TV: ABC
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