🏀 Arizona State vs. Virginia Prediction & Parlay Today: Women's First Four Odds & Picks
Virginia hasn't been to the NCAA Tournament since 2018, and Arizona State is back for the first time since 2019. They'll meet tonight at 9 p.m. ET in the women's March Madness First Four from Carver-Hawkeye Arena in Iowa City, Iowa (ESPN2).
My best Arizona State vs. Virginia prediction and parlay backs the Cavaliers as a short favorite despite a three-game losing streak. For more tournament coverage, check out all of our March Madness predictions.
🏀 Arizona State vs. Virginia picks & odds: Women's March Madness First Four
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia ML | -142 via FanDuel | 1u -> 0.7u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Virginia to win by 1-5 | +375 via BetMGM | 0.25u -> 0.94u | ⭐⭐ |
| Virginia to win by 6-10 | +450 via BetMGM | 0.25u -> 1.1u | ⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 1.5 units | Max profit: 2.1 units
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🏆 Who will win Arizona State vs. Virginia?
I predict Virginia will defeat Arizona State by six points in their First Four matchup on Thursday. The Cavaliers have lost three in a row (their longest skid of the year) entering this game, but they are the favorites for a reason. Their net rating (+15.4) is nearly twice Arizona State's (+7.9).
Score prediction: Virginia 66, Arizona State 60
💰 Arizona State vs. Virginia prediction & best bet
Virginia ML (-142)
Arizona State has been quite the storyline this season, going from 10-22 last year to its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2019 under first-year head coach Molly Miller. However, I think the narrative has created some value for the Cavaliers.
ESPN's BPI has Virginia winning by 6.6 points and projects a 73.3% chance of victory. At -142, the Cavaliers have an implied probability of 56.68%. Even if the projection is a tad optimistic, it's telling that UVA is a short favorite after dropping three in a row entering this matchup.
While Virginia's moneyline is worth a full-unit play, I thought it'd be fun to take advantage of the winning-margin props available at BetMGM. Given the low total (126.5), I have a hard time seeing Virginia win by more than 10 points. That's why I felt it was worth a sprinkle on two different bands in hopes of maximizing my ROI.
💵 Arizona State vs. Virginia odds movement
| Market | Arizona State | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| ↔️ Spread | +2.5 (-115) | -2.5 (-105) |
| ↕️ Total (O/U) | O 126.5 (-110) | U 126.5 (-110) |
| 💵 Moneyline | +115 | -140 |
BetMGM does not display betting split percentages for this matchup, but Virginia's short moneyline price reflects the market's confidence in the Cavaliers despite their recent skid. The total holding steady at 126.5 points to an expectation of a low-scoring, grind-it-out game between two defense-first programs. Monitoring line movement is one of the best ways to find value before locking in your Women's March Madness picks tonight.
💡 How I'm betting Arizona State vs. Virginia: Women's March Madness
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
It's true that Virginia has lost three games in a row, but there is a chance that it is due for some positive shooting regression. The Cavaliers shot 27% or worse from 3-point range in two of those defeats, compared to a 32% clip for the season. They also shot below their season-average on 2-pointers (50.2%) in two of their three losses.
As a result, I think the market has provided a buy-low spot on Virginia. But rather than just take the moneyline value straight up, I like the juicy payouts via the winning margin market. Because the total is so low, it seems unlikely that either team will run away with this game on Thursday.
📊 Live Arizona State vs. Virginia odds: Women's March Madness First Four
The betting odds haven't moved much as of this writing, with Virginia still listed as a 2.5-point favorite and the total holding steady at 126.5.
Based on the public betting splits, which are tilted in favor of UVA, I wouldn't be surprised to see the spread climb a bit before tipoff.
📺 How to watch Arizona State vs. Virginia: Women's March Madness First Four
- Date: Thursday, March 19
- Tipoff: 9 p.m. ET
- Location: Carver-Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, Iowa)
- TV: ESPN2
- Streaming: ESPN App
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