Arizona's Undefeated Chase: Can Wildcats Survive and Beat the March Madness Curse?

With Arizona basketball undefeated and chasing perfection down the stretch of the regular season, I'm breaking down the history of unbeaten teams in March Madness and looking at whether the Wildcats can finish the job. 

While Tommy Lloyd's program is undeniably the best team in college basketball thus far, does it really have a shot at being perfect? And given the cursed history of undefeated teams in the NCAA Tournament, is it even a feat worth attempting? 

🏀 The 21-0 Wildcats: The last unbeaten power program

After Michigan beat Nebraska 75-72 earlier this week, it left Arizona as the only unbeaten power program left in college basketball - Miami (OH) is the only other undefeated team left in the country. It also vaulted the Wildcats to the top of the March Madness odds.

However, Arizona came face-to-face with defeat one night prior to the Cornhuskers' loss when the Wildcats nearly blew a double-digit second-half lead on the road against No. 13 BYU. It took a last-second block from freshman star Brayden Burries to stay alive

Though a win is a win, it was the first time since Nov. 19, when Arizona beat No. 3 UConn 71-67, that Lloyd's team looked truly susceptible. It was also the first-ranked opponent Arizona had played since beating Alabama in mid-December.

Easy conference schedule merchant

The Wildcats are sitting No. 32 in KenPom's strength of schedule rating, but after a tough non-conference schedule that included Florida, UCLA, UConn, Auburn, Alabama, and San Diego State, Arizona hadn't really played a team expected to make the NCAA Tournament.

That changes down the stretch. The Wildcats' first seven games in Big 12 play came against unranked teams, but BYU was the first of seven ranked opponents over their final 11 conference games. And they play rival Arizona State on the road, which won't be easy.

Our best March Madness betting sites currently offer the ability to bet on Arizona pulling off an undefeated Big 12 regular season, with "Yes" priced at +580 and "No" priced at -1200. That implies a 92.31% probability that the Wildcats lose at least once over their 11 remaining games.

And that doesn't even take into account Arizona needing to win the Big 12 Tournament to ensure an unblemished record when the NCAA Tournament begins.

So, I just don't think there's any way Arizona goes undefeated, and I don't think they should want to, given the cursed history of the unbeaten in March Madness.

Arizona's remaining schedule

📜 History of perfection: How undefeated teams fare in March

March Madness has been unkind to programs hoping to make history. Since the NCAA Tournament expanded in 1985, four teams have entered March Madness undefeated, and not one has managed to cut down the nets in the championship game.

Even undefeated teams that predate David Barrett's March Madness classic, One Shining Moment, have fallen victim to the curse that is entering the tournament unbeaten. The last undefeated team to win it all was Bob Knight's Indiana in 1976.

Before that? Well, of course John Wooden accomplished it four times (1964, 1967, 1972, and 1973). But the Bruins also won 10 NCAA Tournaments in 12 years during that timeframe.

And before those two, it was pulled off in 1957 by Frank McGuire's North Carolina team and in 1956 by Phil Woolpert's San Francisco program, which happened to have Bill Russell (and K.C. Jones).

Unbeaten teams entering March Madness are 7-13 when it comes to completing the job. And the four coaches who have gone undefeated on their way to an NCAA Tournament title are all in the College Basketball Hall of Fame.

💰 Betting analysis: Is Arizona a good bet at +400?

In Tommy Lloyd's previous four seasons as Arizona's head coach, he's reached the Sweet 16 three times but has never made it further.

Lloyd's first team, in 2021-22, was his best. It was a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and 33-3 before losing to No. 5 seed Houston in the Sweet 16. That team finished ranked No. 5 by both KenPom and EvanMiya. 

In 2023-24, the Cats were 27-8 when they lost as a No. 2 seed in the Sweet 16 to No. 6 seed Clemson. Arizona finished ranked No. 6 by KenPom and No. 5 by EvanMiya.  

Last year, the program was just 24-12 when it lost as a No. 4 seed in the Sweet 16 to No. 1 seed Duke. Arizona finished ranked No. 13 by KenPom and EvanMiya.

This team is ranked No. 1 by KenPom and No. 2 by EvanMiya, behind Michigan. But its net rating puts both Michigan and Duke right there with it. But the Wildcats' undefeated record has shortened this price too much. It shouldn't have a 20% implied probability of winning it all.

Given the play of Cameron Boozer, who leads a Wooden Award odds race dominated by a historic freshman class, the Blue Devils are the best bet right now if you ask me (+900). 

I'd steer clear of Arizona at this short a price, at least until we see how the Wildcats fare as they delve deeper into their gauntlet of a Big 12 schedule.

Since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams, a top-three seed has won March Madness 35 out of 40 times. NCAA Tournament seed projections via Bracket Matrix: