🏀 Warriors vs. Nuggets Player Props Today: NBA Picks & Best Bets (March 29)

There's a chance we won't have to stay up for the end of tonight's matchup between the Golden State Warriors and Denver Nuggets at 10 p.m. ET on Sunday at Ball Arena on NBC.

Denver is a 12.5-point favorite, which is why I'm targeting a first-quarter angle for Nikola Jokic in my Thunder vs. Nuggets player props today. I'm also fading Kristaps Porzingis against a real opponent as part of Sunday's NBA picks and best bets.

🏀 Best Warriors vs. Nuggets player props today: NBA picks for March 29

See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.5 units | Max profit: 1.87 units

💰 Best Warriors vs. Nuggets prop bet

Nikola Jokic Over 3.5 first-quarter assists (-160)

By now you've seen the video of some of the assists Jokic has been credited for in home games. NBA stars getting a bump in production at home isn't a new thing.

He typically plays all 12 minutes of the opening period, and Jokic averages 3.7 first-quarter assists while clearing this exact line in 33 of his 59 games. Jokic averages 4.4 first-quarter assists at home and has cleared this mark in 24 of his 29 contests at Ball Arena.

The superstar has also registered 14 first-quarter assists in his last two meetings with the Warriors.

🔥 More Warriors vs. Nuggets prop picks

Kristaps Porzingis Under 27.5 points + rebounds + assists (-108)

Warriors center Kristaps Porzingis has only cleared this PRA line in six of his 16 games this season. Here are the five teams he's done it against: Chicago Bulls, Cleveland Cavaliers (when they were bad in November), New Orleans Pelicans, Washington Wizards (twice), and Dallas Mavericks (last time out).

Basically, Porzingis has thrived against teams that are trying to lose. According to Props Madness, Porzingis has only gone Over this PRA line once in seven games when his team was an underdog, which happened on Nov. 2 against the Cavs when he played as a member of the Atlanta Hawks. In those seven outings, he's averaging 10.4 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 2.7 assists.

Consider me skeptical of Porzingis' production against a real opponent, especially when bet365 has this same total as low as 25.5.

🚀 Warriors vs. Nuggets same-game parlay

I can't put together a parlay at a place that lets me include first-quarter assists, so I've opted for Jokic's alternate assist market instead. I only bet 10-plus assists in case he doesn't log much playing time in the fourth quarter.

That's the same reason I've included Denver's moneyline value instead of the spread, which resulted in a +182 potential payout on this SGP.

💡 How I'm betting Warriors vs. Nuggets

Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.

I have no interest in staying up to see the final score of this game, so I'm pretty proud of myself for finding a first-quarter angle on Jokic. We have evidence of his assists getting bumped up at home, so perhaps it can work in our favor for tonight's matchup against the Warriors.

At the same time, Porzingis hasn't produced against a real team yet this year. I'll fade his inflated props following what might have been his best game of the season.

Between those two tickets, I feel confident in my handicap of tonight's Warriors vs. Nuggets matchup.

🚑 Warriors vs. Nuggets injuries

📺 How to watch Warriors vs. Nuggets

• Date: Sunday, March 29
• Tipoff: 10 p.m. ET
• Location: Ball Arena (Denver)
• TV: NBC/Peacock