🏀 Rockets vs. Heat Player Props Today: NBA Picks & Best Bets (Feb. 28)

I’m targeting Tyler Herro amid his return from injury in my Rockets vs. Heat player props today.

Shane Thurston

Last Updated: February 28, 2026 1:13 PM EST • 3 minute read

Pictured: Miami Heat guard Tyler Herro (14) reacts after a shot as he is featured in our Rockets vs. Heat player props. Photo by Brett Davis-Imagn Images

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Tyler Herro is starting to find a rhythm, as his Miami Heat welcome the Houston Rockets to town at 3:30 p.m. ET (Prime Video) on Saturday from the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida.

Herro’s high-usage role creates multiple betting opportunities worth exploring in my Rockets vs. Heat player props today as part of our NBA picks and best bets for Saturday.

🏀 Best Rockets vs. Heat player props today: NBA picks for Feb. 28

See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Player	Prop bet	Units	Confidence
Tyler Herro, G, Heat	Over 3.5 assists (+110)	1u -> 1.1u	⭐⭐⭐⭐
Tyler Herro, G, Heat	Over 23.5 points + assists (-112)	1u -> 0.89u	⭐⭐⭐⭐

Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: 1.99 units

💰 Best Rockets vs. Heat prop bet

Tyler Herro Over 3.5 assists (+110)

Thursday against the Philadelphia 76ers was when it felt like Herro was fully back, finishing with 25 points and seven assists in 32 minutes. Herro hadn’t played more than 26 minutes in his previous three games.

I expect the ball to be in his hands a lot for a Miami team that plays at the league's fastest pace. He’s recorded at least six assists in three straight outings, averaging 6.3 dimes over that span.

I’ll take the plus-money price on Over 3.5 assists, especially with BetMGM offering the best value on the market. This same ticket is -113 at Caesars.

🔥 More Rockets vs. Heat prop picks

Tyler Herro Over 23.5 points + assists (-112)

I’m betting on Herro’s potential usage in this matinee matchup. Due to injuries, Herro has been limited to 15 games this season. He’s only made 10 starts and has yet to crack the opening lineup in his latest return from injury.

If his recent outing was any indication, the market is underrating Herro a bit. Herro’s usage rating this season is 26.1%, including 29.1% over his past four games. Norman Powell is the only Miami player with a higher usage this year, and he’s out for this matchup.

Herro has cleared this combo line nine times this year, including twice in his latest return from injury. Give me FanDuel’s value on the Over.

🏀 More NBA picks today

I'm also targeting Herro in my NBA player props today.

💡 How I'm betting NBA player props today

Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.

It can be more difficult to find value in player prop markets later in the NBA regular season. Our best sports betting sites continue to improve at setting lines while receiving more data.

That’s why I’m often seeking angles that are similar to Herro’s case. When a high-usage player returns from injury, the market can sometimes be a bit slow to figure out when he’s fully back.

As a result, I’m backing Herro in multiple ways, hoping to squeeze out the last bit of value his prop markets hold before the books adjust.

💡 How to manage your bankroll

Our LJ Blut dives in with this guide, taking you through how to manage your bankroll.

🚀 Rockets vs. Heat same-game parlay

Herro is the focal point of today’s Rockets vs. Heat same-game parlay.

I’m featuring two of his player props, including Over 3.5 assists. I’m also targeting Over 19.5 points instead of his combo line, given that it’s a better value for essentially the same wager. The SGP with the combo line is +440, while Over 19.5 points leads to a +490 payout.

In addition, I’m targeting Miami as a short home underdog in a tough matinee matchup.

💵 Rockets vs. Heat SGP picks

Heat ML (+124)
Tyler Herro Over 3.5 assists (-106)
Tyler Herro Over 19.5 points (-115)

Best odds: +490 via FanDuel (0.1u -> 0.49u)

🚑 Rockets vs. Heat injuries

📺 How to watch Rockets vs. Heat

Date: Saturday, Feb. 28
Tipoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Kaseya Center (Miami, FL)
TV: Prime Video

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Written by:
Shane Thurston

Shane Thurston has been writing for Sportsbook Review since 2022, though his passion for sports, writing, and betting runs much longer than that. He graduated from the University of Kansas with a journalism degree in 2017 and has been covering sports ever since, working for MLB.com, Manhattan Mercury, Lawrence Journal-World, WynnBET, Bet Chicago Sports, BetNOLA, and BetMGM. Thurston cares about creating quality sports betting content above all else. He uses NFL experience, a mixture of models, information, film, analysis, and a top-down approach to locate every best bet shared for SBR. He never gives out a pick that he wouldn’t be willing to spend his own money on. Thurston is focused on finding +EV bets on a daily basis for a variety of sports such as NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, NBA, WNBA, and MLB. He usually bets on props but is willing to wager on a spread or total when there is an edge. Don’t ask him how many bets he has placed on a typical college football Saturday. Thurston doesn’t care if you follow him on social media, but his Twitter account has info on how you can follow his bets through multiple third-party platforms. He just wants you to read all the great work from the SBR team.