NBA Player Props Today: Best Prop Bets & Expert Picks for Monday

For my NBA player props today, I’m backing the recent form of Josh Hart, Kel’el Ware, and Brandon Williams.

I’m also taking an making a surprising play on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as part of Monday’s NBA best bets.

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⬆️  Josh Hart player prop: Over 6.5 assists (+100) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

The New York Knicks will continue to be without Jalen Brunson when they face the Miami Heat on Monday. Miles McBride is also a game-time decision due to personal reasons.

Josh Hart’s passing could become extremely important to the Knicks’ success. Against Miami a few days ago (without Brunson), Hart dished out 10 assists on 16 potential dimes. He also led the Knicks with 83 passes.

Per PBP Stats, Hart averages nearly three more assists per 100 possessions without Brunson this season. I project him to dish seven-plus dimes, which is why I’m taking the +100 price after snagging a BetMGM bonus code.

Our Philip Wood has three more winning plays for this matchup in his Knicks vs. Heat player props.

🔥  Kel’el Ware player prop: Double-double (+100) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I’m taking another injury-related angle for the other side of the Knicks-Heat matchup. Miami Heat big man Kel’el Ware has made the most of his role without Bam Adebayo, averaging 12 points and 12.2 rebounds as the primary center for the past five games.

Ware has recorded three straight double-doubles, including one against the Knicks on Friday. He finished with 15 points and 10 rebounds in the loss. Ware has averaged 19 rebound chances per contest since Nov. 7, per the NBA’s tracking data.

This double-double wager could come down to Ware’s rebounding ability, as his rebounds line is 10.5 and his points prop is 13.5. I like the +100 value on him to notch another double-double, securing $10 on a $10 bet.

This isn't the only double-double the crew is backing tonight, as our Dustin Saracini offers one up in his Bucks vs. Cavaliers player prop bets.

⬆️  Brandon Williams player prop: Over 4.5 assists (+108) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I’m not jumping off the Brandon Williams bandwagon anytime soon. He’s been featured in consecutive NBA player props columns, cashing the Over on his assists prop on both occasions.

Williams has cleared this line in four of his past five games, averaging 5.8 dimes per contest over that span. He’s recorded double-digit potential assists in four straight games, averaging 12 potential dimes during that stretch.

Williams can provide the creation that the Dallas Mavericks desperately need right now. FanDuel’s +108 price tag is a bargain, as BetMGM charges as much as -120 for the same ticket.

Our Juan Carlos Blanco also projects Williams to exceed expectations as a playmaker in his Mavericks vs. Timberwolves player props.

⬇️  Shai Gilgeous-Alexander player prop: Under 6.5 assists (+106) ⭐⭐⭐

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has cleared his assists line in three straight games. But I don’t think that streak will continue in a matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans.

Gilgeous-Alexander was a perfect seven-for-seven against the Charlotte Hornets last time out, recording seven dimes on as many potential assists. Typically, a player’s hit rate is closer to 50% in terms of how many potential assists result in actual dimes.

I’ll take the plus-money price on what might be an inflated prop, especially if SGA’s playing time is closer to the low 30s in a potential blowout.

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