NBA Player Props Today | Best Player Prop Picks for Thursday, Jan. 1

My NBA player props today aim to stay hot after back-to-back 4-0 performances the past two nights.

My NBA best bets for the first day of the new year feature betting angles for Joel Embiid, Davion Mitchell, Quentin Grimes, and Neemias Queta.

🏀 NBA player prop bets today: Jan. 1

See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds.

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Joel Embiid Over 3.5 assists (-120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Don’t look now, but there's a chance Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid is back. He recorded a season-high eight assists on 12 potential dimes and 57 passes in his last matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies.

Embiid has scored 30-plus points in consecutive games. His usage rate is back up to 33.8%, a sign that he’s joined Tyrese Maxey as the offensive engines in Philadelphia. When things run through Embiid, he earns more assists. He’s averaged more than four assists per game for the last four years.

Our Liam Fox targets Embiid's running mate Tyrese Maxey instead as part of his 76ers vs. Mavericks player props.

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Want more NBA betting advice? Check out all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.

Davion Mitchell Under 16.5 points + assists (-120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This is a tough matchup for Miami Heat guard Davion Mitchell. The Detroit Pistons are second in defensive rating and allow the fewest assists leaguewide.

Mitchell’s whole thing is passing. He’s averaging 7.3 assists per game, but his underlying metrics suggest some regression. Mitchell has posted an average of 12.1 potential assists and a usage rate of 13.4%.

Considering he’s finished Under this mark in three of his past outings, there's value in bet365’s offering.

Quentin Grimes Over 9.5 points (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

A role player has to benefit from Embiid’s passing, and Quentin Grimes has become a reliable spot-up shooter for Philadelphia. He’s averaging 14.7 points per game, clearing this mark in 23 of his 29 contests for a hit rate of 79.3%.

Grimes has notched double figures in two straight games, which included a 13-point performance against the Oklahoma City Thunder. I project another such outing.

Neemias Queta Over 9.5 points (-115) ⭐⭐⭐

Neemias Queta has been one of the more pleasant surprises this season for the Boston Celtics. His impact has come more on the defensive end, but that’s kept him on the floor enough to produce offensively.

Queta is averaging 10 points per game this season, but that mark climbs up to 11 since Nov. 12. He’s reached double figures in 11 of his previous 18 matchups since then, and now Queta faces a Sacramento Kings team that ranks 28th in defending the roll man. 

Queta gets 27% of his scoring production from pick-and-rolls, according to Props Madness. That’s why I’m on the Over in this spot.

🎟️ Most-bet NBA player props today

Betting insights via BetMGM.

1. Jalen Duren, Pistons: Over 10.5 rebounds (-130)

2. Kevin Durant, Rockets: Under 26.5 points (-135)

3. Tari Eason, Rockets: Under 5.5 rebounds (-140)

4. Nicolas Claxton, Nets: Under 7.5 rebounds (-135)

5. Andrew Wiggins, Heat: Over 1.5 three-pointers made (-145)

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