Top NBA Parlay Picks for Thursday

Thursday’s NBA parlay picks go against a season-long trend for a total as well as a player prop.

Thursday marks the final night of NBA regular-season games before the annual All-Star break. As the players and coaches get set to take a full week’s vacation, the same is more or less true for NBA bettors. With only five games on the schedule this Thursday, there isn’t a ton of volume to choose from. However, bettors can also use this to their advantage by diving deeper into the games that are on the slate. 

Here are my top parlay picks for Thursday’s NBA action (odds via BetMGM; pick confidence based on 1-to-5-star scale).

Thursday's NBA Parlay Picks

Montrezl Harrell Under 6.5 rebounds (-115) ????76ers-Bucks Under 223.5 (-110) ???Rockets-Clippers Under 230.5 (-110) ??

SEE ALSO: 76ers vs. Bucks Picks

NBA Parlay Predictions

Harrell Under 6.5 rebounds (-115)

Since being acquired by the Charlotte Hornets at the NBA trade deadline, Montrezl Harrell has delivered for his new team. The Hornets were in desperate need of rebounding help and Harrell has gotten minutes right away. 

Along with scoring in double figures in each of his first three games with Charlotte, Harrell has finished with no less than six boards. The last two contests saw him grab nine and seven rebounds in 29 and 33 minutes, respectively. Unfortunately, he could be in for a tough go of it on the glass tonight.

Thursday evening will see Harrell and the Hornets face the Eastern Conference-leading Miami Heat. In addition to playing suffocating defense, the Heat rank fifth in rebound rate on the season. Miami has successfully corralled 51.2% of available rebounds in games thus far. The fact that the Heat have been that solid on the boards despite being without center Bam Adebayo for a two-month stretch is quite impressive.

When one takes into account the fact that Harrell has averaged 6.7 rebounds per game, he would therefore need to exceed his average to clear this. A matchup with the Heat is not one to back any player to outperform their typical rebounding numbers. It's why it's our top-rated NBA parlay pick for Thursday.

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76ers-Bucks Under 223.5 (-110)

With the top five teams in the Eastern Conference currently separated by all of three games, tonight’s matchup between these two teams looms large. While both sides have stumbled their way to ugly losses recently, a win over a fellow contender would be huge going into the All-Star break. This sense of urgency figures to heighten the defensive intensity and effort put forth tonight.

When it comes to defensive efficiency on the season to date, both teams are firmly ranked in the upper half of the NBA. The Sixers rank tenth in the statistic, allowing 106.9 points per 100 possessions. The Bucks are not far behind at 107.4. Although Milwaukee’s defense has been getting torn apart recently, the 76ers don’t exactly profile as a team that will take advantage.

When it comes to pace, Philadelphia ranks as the third-slowest team in the Association. The 76ers average only 98.0 possessions used per game this season. Thus, bettors can reasonably anticipate Philly slowing the pace of tonight’s game down. Given that the Sixers don’t have the personnel to run with the Bucks in transition, it would make sense from a game-planning standpoint as well.

The total for this game has bounced around a fair bit. Bettors can currently find several different iterations of the number depending on the sportsbook. With the market trending towards the under at the time of writing, getting in on 223.5 is the best option available.

Rockets-Clippers Under 230.5 (-110)

Wrapping up tonight’s NBA parlay picks is a massive contrarian play to the Under. Houston Rockets games just don’t tend to go Under no matter what oddsmakers set the total at. They have surrendered a whopping 116.5 points per 100 possessions. That is by far the worst defensive efficiency ranking of any team this season.

Tonight’s matchup could follow a different trajectory, however, thanks to their opponent in the Los Angeles Clippers. The defense has been the calling card for the injury-depleted Clippers all season long. L.A. enters tonight’s contest ranked eighth in defensive efficiency. Opponents have only scored 109 points per 100 possessions against the Clips this season.

The other thing to consider is the poor offensive efficiency of both teams. In fact, the Clippers (107.7) and Rockets (107.3) rank 26th and 27th, respectively in the statistic. While Houston’s NBA-leading pace of play at 103.2 has allowed them to still score plenty of points, the Clippers figure to slow that tempo down a bit tonight.

This total opened at 226 and we are playing Under 230.5, so it's clear which side the majority of the NBA betting market has been on. Sometimes, zagging where the others zig can be a good thing. With the consensus line currently set at 230, we are scoring a half-point of value by going through BetMGM.

Combined Odds: Harrell Under 6.5 rebounds (-115) + 76ers-Bucks Under 223.5 (-110) + Rockets-Clippers Under 230.5 (-110) = +581

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NBA parlay picks made 2/17/2022 at 11:36 a.m. ET