Latest NBA MVP Odds After Nikola Jokic Injury | SGA the Prohibitive Betting Favorite to Repeat

The Denver Nuggets avoided the worst-case scenario after the Nikola Jokic injury on Monday, but the preseason betting favorite is still expected to miss a month - effectively killing his NBA MVP odds with more than half the season to go.

The injury opens the door for last year's winner, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who opened as the second choice behind Jokic and was the slim favorite entering this week. Now he's the runaway favorite with a better than 80% chance to repeat as MVP according to the latest MVP odds for the 2025-26 season.

📊 Live NBA MVP odds

Latest NBA odds updated live in real time from our best sports betting sites.

📉 Jokic's MVP odds off the board after knee injury

Through the first two months of the NBA season, it looked like we'd be in store for another good ol' fashioned showdown between Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic - who have claimed the top two spots in MVP voting each of the last two seasons.

With the NBA's strict rules on awards eligibility, though, it only takes one injury to effectively eliminate one of the top contenders. That's unfortunately the case for Jokic, who hyperextended his left knee in Monday's loss in Miami and is expected to miss at least four weeks.

Despite playing all 32 of the Nuggets' games this season, Jokic simply cannot afford to return any later than that projected timeline to remain eligible for his fourth MVP trophy. If the three-time winner returns exactly four weeks from today, he'd miss 16 games and would only be able to sit out one more game this season and still win MVP.

If he can't return by Denver's matchup with the Brooklyn Nets on Jan. 29, Jokic would be eliminated from MVP contention, ending an incredible five-year run of top-two finishes in the MVP race. He's currently averaging career highs with 29.6 points and 11 assists alongside an NBA-best 12.2 rebounds per game.

📈 Can anyone catch SGA as runaway NBA MVP odds favorite?

While the Jokic injury throws a wrench into this year's race, SGA was already the favorite to win his second straight MVP trophy entering this week. And now it's clearly his to lose.

The reigning MVP winner has been at the center of the Oklahoma City Thunder's dominant run through the first two months of the season, having won 28 of their first 33 games to potentially threaten the all-time mark. While SGA is scoring at a slightly lower clip (32.2 PPG) than he did last year, he's been more efficient from the field (55.9%) while leading the league in defensive win shares (2.2) as of Tuesday.

A cursory look at the advanced metrics show Jokic and SGA in a class of their own through the first third of the season. With the former effectively ruled out in this race, there's a reason SGA is the prohibitive favorite now with shorter than -400 odds across the board. Only Luka Doncic (+430) has consensus odds shorter than +5000 to win MVP.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander MVP odds

NBA MVP odds as of Dec. 30 from our best NBA betting sites.