Mavericks vs. Warriors Same-Game Parlay | NBA Christmas Day SGP Picks Today
In a way, I’m betting on both defenses for my Mavericks vs. Warriors same-game parlay in their Christmas Day matchup at 5 p.m. ET at the Chase Center in San Francisco (ESPN).
Golden State is an 8-point betting favorite in this battle between two potential play-in teams, which is giving the home squad a bit too much credit. My NBA best bets project value on the Mavs to hold their own in a low-scoring contest.
🏀 Mavericks vs. Warriors same-game parlay: NBA Christmas Day
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| Parlay bet | Odds (FanDuel) | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Mavericks +8 | -106 | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Under 227.5 | -110 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Stephen Curry Over 4.5 assists | -144 | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Best SGP odds: +525 via FanDuel ($10 to win $52.51)
🎄 Best Mavericks vs. Warriors SGP picks: NBA Christmas Day
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Mavericks +8 (-106) ⭐⭐⭐
Given that I project a defensive battle, there is likely value in taking the points with Dallas, especially if the spread is +7.5 or better.
The Mavs have quietly performed better than expected in recent weeks. They are 8-5 against the spread since Nov. 29, including 8-3 ATS when they are getting points as the underdog.
The Warriors, meanwhile, are 4-7 ATS over their last 11 games. They rank 21st in the league with a minus-2.3 spread differential over the past two weeks, according to Cleaning the Glass.
Under 227.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
In many ways, these two teams have a similar narrative. They both entered the year as dark-horse contenders but have been unable to produce many wins in the Western Conference with a strong defense and a weak offense.
Golden State ranks third in the league with a defensive rating of 111 this season. But Stephen Curry doesn’t have enough help on the other end, as the Warriors rank 21st in offensive rating.
The Mavericks are ninth in defensive rating, but their lack of a trusted point guard has led to a 27th-place offensive rating. On a holiday where totals tend to have a higher Under rate, I like betting on a low-scoring matchup between these two teams.
Stephen Curry Over 4.5 assists (-144) ⭐⭐⭐
Although I expect a low-scoring game, it wouldn’t be right to have a Christmas Day parlay without betting on Stephen Curry. At 37 years old, Curry is averaging 28.7 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 4.3 assists per game.
Curry’s passing has picked up in recent games due to the way teams are defending him. They have no choice but to get the ball out of his hands, as he’s the only threat on a below-average offensive team.
Curry has recorded at least five assists in five of his previous six contests. He leads the team with an average of 10.4 potential assists and 57.6 passes per game since Nov. 26. This is my favorite way to back Curry on Christmas.
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📺 How to watch Mavericks vs. Warriors: NBA Christmas Day
- Date: Thursday, Dec. 25
- Tipoff: 5 p.m. ET
- Where: Chase Center (San Francisco)
- TV: ABC/ESPN
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