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Luka Doncic Odds & Player Props for Game 5: Western Conference Finals Picks

Rob Paul

Last Updated: May 30, 2024 6:00 PM EDT • 3 min 14 sec read.

The Dallas Mavericks are a win away from eliminating the Minnesota Timberwolves and punching their NBA Finals ticket, and we're looking at the top Luka Doncic player props for Game 5 based on the most competitive NBA odds. 

The Dallas Mavericks failed to oust the Minnesota Timberwolves at home on Tuesday, setting up an intriguing Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals at Target Center in Minnesota on Thursday at 8:30 p.m. ET on TNT. The Timberwolves are the 4.5-point home favorite.

The Mavericks still hold the second-shortest NBA championship odds and will continue to rely on Luka Doncic, who has been delivering exceptional performances and currently has the second-shortest NBA Finals MVP odds.

Along with our Mavericks vs. Timberwolves player props and Anthony Edwards odds & player props, here are our best Luka Doncic player props predictions for Thursday's Mavericks vs. Timberwolves matchup (odds via our best NBA betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Luka Doncic odds, player props

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Luka Doncic Over 8.5 assists ⭐⭐⭐⭐

There just aren't answers for certain players in pro sports. Patrick Mahomes, Shohei Ohtani, and Connor McDavid all fit that bill, but so does Doncic. This series against the Timberwolves has perfectly shown just how unstoppable he is offensively.

Minnesota boasts the NBA's best defense and the DPOY. Yet no matter what the Timberwolves do in the series, Doncic is either scoring or setting up others. Minnesota is in conflict every time he drives. He's either going to score, hit a patent lob pass to one of his bigs, or kick it out to Kyrie Irving or PJ Washington.

Doncic's passing has been on full display all postseason, and he's averaging 9.1 assists per game. He's gone Over 8.5 in five of his last seven contests, and these odds imply a 54.55% probability that happens again, according to our odds converter. A $10 bet pays out $18.33 on this prop.

Best odds: -120 via bet365

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Luka Doncic Over 3.5 made 3-pointers ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Is Minnesota cursed? Probably, there was drafting Jonny Flynn over Steph Curry, Gary Anderson's missed field goal, and too many Minnesota Twins-related gaffes to count. So of course Doncic has managed to find his 3-point shooting form once again in the Western Conference finals.

After several games of doing his best Anthony Bennett impression, Doncic has looked as good as ever from behind the arc. He's gone 26-for-60 (43.3%) from three over his last six outings while cashing the Over on 3.5 3-pointers in five of those affairs. I don't expect him to stop shooting now with Minnesota on the brink.

These odds are longer than I was anticipating with Doncic averaging 4.3 made 3-pointers on 10.8 attempts per game against the Timberwolves. The figure implies a 52.83% win probability, with a $10 bet paying an $8.93 profit. 

Best odds: -112 via DraftKings

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Luka Doncic to record a triple-double ⭐⭐

Already eighth all-time in triple-doubles with 77, Doncic is quickly rising up the rankings for career postseason triple-doubles. His 28 points, 15 rebounds, and 10 assists in Game 4 of the Western Conference finals moved him to ninth all-time in playoff triple-doubles, tied with Wilt Chamberlain.

This is clearly a swing for the fences heading into Game 5, but it's entirely possible for Doncic to finish with his 10th playoff triple-double. He's already tallied six triple-doubles so far this postseason, and five have come in his last seven games. 

With his jaw-dropping production, Doncic is the leading scorer, rebounder, and assister in the series. However, since this is a longer shot bet with a 22.22% win probability, putting a half unit on it makes the most sense. A $5 wager on this prop would still pay a $17.50 profit.

Best odds: +350 via bet365

Luka Doncic player props picks made Thursday at 12:20 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Rob Paul
Rob is a Publishing Editor at Sportsbook Review. He’s been with the team since early 2024, with this being his first full-time role in the sports betting industry. Before joining SportsbookReview.com, he contributed to various sports outlets, including FanSided and Pro Football Network. During that period, he spent five years working full-time as a local community journalist, after attending Durham College for journalism and Wilfrid Laurier University for history. He previously hosted an NFL draft and college football-focused podcast where he had the opportunity to interact with future NFL players such as Maxx Crosby and Quinn Meinerz. Rob has spent multiple years working as a freelance podcast producer for numerous sports-related podcasts while making guest appearances on several college football shows. He’s also made guest appearances on SportsTalk Mississippi on several occasions to talk all things NFL draft. Rob values the way sports betting acts as a catalyst for telling stories and growing interest in certain sports, particularly FCS football, WNBA, and mid-major college basketball. He’s always been drawn to the more obscure teams and conferences in major college sports, but most of all, Rob loves using stats to find the best player props to back.