🏀 Hawks vs. Bucks Player Props: Giannis Top Picks (March 4)
Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks host the Atlanta Hawks tonight in Antetokounmpo's second game back after missing 15 contests with a calf strain. The Bucks are a 1-point betting favorite over the Hawks, with tipoff from Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee set for 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Antetokounmpo had 19 points, 11 rebounds, and two assists in his first game back from injury, a 108-81 home loss to the Boston Celtics on Monday.
My Hawks vs. Bucks player props tonight expect Antetokounmpo to score a similar number of points, while also targeting Jalen Johnson and Bobby Portis in Milwaukee.
π Best Hawks vs. Bucks player props tonight: NBA picks for March 4
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Player | Prop bet | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Johnson, F, Hawks | Over 9.5 rebounds (-125 via DraftKings) | 1.88u -> 1.5u | βββββ |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo, F, Bucks | Under 26.5 points (-122 via FanDuel) | 1.22u -> 1u | ββββ |
| Bobby Portis, F, Bucks | Under 5.5 rebounds (-113 via Caesars) | 1.13u -> 1u | ββββ |
Total wagered: 4.23 units | Max profit: 3.5 units
π° Best Hawks vs. Bucks prop bet
Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.
Jalen Johnson Over 9.5 rebounds (-125)
Johnson returned from a hip injury against the Portland Trail Blazers on Sunday, and while he grabbed just eight rebounds, he played only 30 minutes, as the Hawks won by 34 points.
He recorded 10 or more rebounds in his first three games after the All-Star break and will likely cash this line if he plays 35 or more minutes tonight. DraftKings has Johnson Over 9.5 rebounds at -125, but I would still play it at any of the best sports betting sites up to -145.
π₯ More Hawks vs. Bucks prop picks
Our Shane Thurston features more picks worth tailing in his NBA player props tonight.
Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 26.5 points (-122)
Antetokounmpo scored 19 points in his first game back from injury - and we cashed his Over 18.5 with our Celtics vs. Bucks prediction - but this line has moved way too far after he attempted 18 shots in his return.
Even before missing time with a strained calf, Antetokounmpo had scored 25 or fewer points in five straight games. He should have scored more than 19 on Monday, but it's unlikely he attempts 18 shots again and scores 27-plus. FanDuel lists Antetokounmpo Under 26.5 points at -122, but this bet is good up to -135.
Bobby Portis Under 5.5 rebounds (-113)
Portis averaged 6.4 rebounds over 13 games while Antetokounmpo was out with a strained calf, but those numbers are going to drop with the Bucks' star forward back in the lineup. Portis grabbed just one rebound in Antetokounmpo's return on Monday.
While one rebound is on the low end, he should grab five or fewer rebounds tonight. Portis Under 5.5 rebounds is -113 at Caesars, but I would still play it up to -125 at any of the best NBA betting sites.
I feature bets for the first half of tonight's ESPN doubleheader in my Thunder vs. Knicks player props.
π€ Hawks vs. Bucks betting splits
Betting splits via BetMGM.
| Bet type | % of bets ποΈ | % of handle π° |
|---|---|---|
| Hawks ML (-102) | 59% | 64% |
| Bucks ML (-118) | 41% | 36% |
| Hawks +1.5 | 60% | 58% |
| Bucks -1.5 | 40% | 42% |
| Over 231.5 | 86% | 88% |
| Under 231.5 | 14% | 12% |
Nothing particularly stands out in the Hawks vs. Bucks betting splits. The Over is much more popular in this matchup, but thatβs not unusual for an NBA game.
That said, I would have expected the Under to account for at least 40% of the handle, given that the Bucks scored just 81 points against the Celtics on Monday and the Hawks are 6-1 to the Under in their last seven games.
π‘ How I'm betting Hawks vs. Bucks
Looking for an ML pick? LJ Blut is taking the Hawks at plus money with his NBA play of the day.
My bankroll strategy is to treat 1 unit as 1% of the money I have set aside solely for sports betting. Iβve allocated 4.23 units for this game, which is slightly more than I would usually bet on three player props. The reason for the higher risk is that I'm confident Johnson's rebounding line is too low at DraftKings.
I expect this to be a close, low-scoring game tonight, as the Bucks held the Celtics to just 108 points in Antetokounmpo's return on Monday, and the Hawks have allowed 104 or fewer points in four straight games.
π Hawks vs. Bucks injuries
πΊ How to watch Hawks vs. Bucks
- Date: Wednesday, March 4
- Tipoff: 9:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Fiserv Forum (Milwaukee)
- TV: ESPN
π My win/loss record: Updated March 4
All NBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since Feb. 10.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parlays | 1-8 | -1.34 units β | -49.68% β |
| Player props | 31-24-3 | +4.85 units β | 6.9% β |
| Overall | 32-32-3 | +3.5 units β | 4.8% β |
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