Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Game 3 NBA Picks: Back Minnesota at Home

The Minnesota Timberwolves and Memphis Grizzlies split Games 1 and 2 in Memphis, but the series shifts to Minnesota tonight for Game 3. Here are our Grizzlies-Timberwolves picks.

Can Minnesota limit Ja Morant and take a 2-1 series lead in front of the home crowd, or will Memphis utilize its deep roster to steal one on the road and regain home-court advantage?

After two games, this series heads to Minneapolis tied 1-1. The Wolves took Game 1 in a contest they controlled throughout, while Memphis stormed back in Game 2 with a blowout victory.

Anthony Edwards shined in his playoff debut, posting 36 points, six assists, and four triples, while Malik Beasley went off for a career-high 23 points in the win. The Wolves shot 50% as a team and drilled 16 triples in that one but fell back to earth in Game 2 with the team shooting below 40% and allowing 60 points in the paint. Memphis utilized strong team play to even the series, as the Grizzlies' bench put up 60 points in Game 2 compared to 64 points from the starting five.

Memphis (26-15) was slightly worse on the road this season, while Minnesota (26-15) was significantly better at home. Thursday's game is shaping up to be a close contest.

Here are my picks and predictions for Thursday's NBA matchup between the Grizzlies and Timberwolves (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on 1-to-5-star scale).

Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Game Info

Date/Time: Thursday, April 21, 7:30 p.m. ETTV: TNTLocation: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN

Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Odds Analysis

After splitting the first two games of the series, it’s no wonder the line for this one is so small. Memphis has been favored by as many as 2.5 points, but that line has moved as low as a single point and fluctuated between those two numbers. It wouldn't be surprising to see this one turn into a pick'em, but we'll get into that more below.

The Over/Under opened as high as 238.5, and I began writing this article when it was at 237.5. As I was writing, the total moved all the way down to 236, which is understandable following Game 2's blowout that hit the Under. These are two of the NBA's top offenses, so the point total will remain lofty no matter how much it moves off of the opening number.

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Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Picks

Timberwolves ML (+114) ?????Over 236 (-110) ?????Ja Morant Under 29.5 points (-116) ?????

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Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Predictions

Timberwolves ML (+114)

It’s been a tale of two games for the Twin City team, as the Wolves looked unstoppable in Game 1 and listless in Game 2. Minnesota is 6-6-0 ATS as the home underdog and 22-18-2 as the home team overall this season. The team has covered in just two of its last seven, but those two have come over the last three games.

Memphis is 12-7-0 ATS as the road favorite and 25-15-1 as the road team overall. The Grizz have covered in just three of their last seven contests. Each team covered three times in the six games they played this season, with both covering in two games at home and one on the road.

The Wolves held opponents to 10 points fewer at home (108.3) than on the road (118.3) this season, and the team's defense has improved since the All-Star break. Minnesota has done a great job of limiting Ja Morant, and doing so again will be a key to victory. The spread has settled at Grizzlies -2, but this is clearly trending toward a pick'em. For that reason, I'll boost my profits and take Minnesota ML at +114 as opposed to Minnesota +2 which gives the standard -110 odds.

Over 236 (-110)

Memphis (fourth) and Minnesota (seventh) both finished in the top 10 in offensive rating this season, and the Timberwolves (first) and Grizzlies (fourth) were both top 10 in pace as well. Minnesota (115.8) ranked first in points per game this season, while Memphis (115.7) was just a hair behind. It's no wonder the point total is so high for this matchup.

Memphis has gone Over in five of its last seven and 11-8-0 as the road favorite this season. Minnesota has gone Over in six of the last eight and 6-6-0 as a home underdog. In six meetings, the total went Over three times and Under three times, including a 1-1 split through the first two games. I have a feeling the Wolves and their home crowd will be fired up for tonight's contest, and there will be a lot of points scored. Give me the Over in this clash between two of the league's best and fastest-paced offenses.

Morant Under 29.5 points (-110)

Scoring 30 points in an NBA game is a tough feat, even for superstars like Morant. But that's how many he'll have to put up in order to cash his points prop tonight. Morant scored at least 30 points in 25 of 57 games this season, and just two of them have come against the Timberwolves in six meetings.

Morant's two 30-point games against the Wolves came at FedEx Forum, but in two games at Target Center, he scored a total of 31 points on 10-of-34 shooting. In fact, Morant's scoring and efficiency against the Wolves has been pedestrian to say the least.

His 33.8% shooting in the regular season was his lowest against any opponent, and his scoring average of 20 points per game was the fourth-lowest. Minnesota ranked fourth in the regular season in points in the paint allowed per game at just 42.7, and Morant led the league in paint points. The Wolves have had his number and play excellent defense in an area in which he excels. Give me the Under tonight when Morant faces a team that's been his kryptonite.

Where to Bet on Grizzlies-Timberwolves Picks

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Grizzlies-Timberwolves picks made on 4/21/2022 at 11:34 a.m. ET.