Clippers vs. Warriors NBA Picks, Predictions: Golden State Overmatched Down Low
Can the Clippers cover without their two best players? Let's examine the matchup in our Clippers-Warriors NBA picks.
The Clippers have now won two straight, but their momentum appears to be stalled with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George injured.
Meanwhile, the Warriors are fresh off a blowout loss to the Pelicans. But several key pieces are set to return to their lineup, making Golden State the deserving favorite here at home.
Here are our Clippers-Warriors picks for their NBA matchup on Wednesday (odds via PointsBet and DraftKings Sportsbook; Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our NBA best bets for Wednesday, and our Kings-Hawks prop picks.
Clippers vs. Warriors Game Info
Date: Wednesday, Nov. 23, 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: TD Garden, Boston, MA
Clippers vs. Warriors Odds
Clippers vs. Warriors Odds Analysis
The Warriors opened up as the 8-point favorites, and they've now the consensus 9-point favorites across the board. FanDuel and BetMGM have pushed the line to 9.5.
DraftKings is reporting that 47% of the tickets but a whopping 78% of the money is on the Warriors. That might explain why the line has moved in Golden State’s favor despite L.A. being the public side.
Meanwhile, the best shop for the Over is PointsBet, which is hanging -107 odds on more than 222.5 points being scored. FanDuel is posting the best total for the Under while offering 223 points.
Clippers vs. Warriors Picks
Clippers vs. Warriors ATS Pick
Clippers +9.5 (-110) ★★★★
The Clippers are missing George, Leonard, and Luke Kennard, and they’re on the road. If they were healthy, this game is probably a pick ‘em, and the Clippers may even be a favorite at home.
However, Golden State will struggle to notch a double-digit win. The Clippers rank third-best in field-goal percentage inside of 10 feet at 61.3%, and the Warriors' frontcourt is among the league's worst, ranking eighth-worst in contested looks per game inside 10 feet.
The Warriors simply aren't covering down there. Golden State is also one of the NBA's five worst-rebounding teams. They’re going to get destroyed inside.
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Clippers vs. Warriors O/U Pick
Under 223 (-110)★★★★
The Clippers’ effective field-goal percentage drops 5% with Kennard off the floor, and they’re not a good 3-point shooting team. They’re really going to struggle from downtown. Combine that with their advantage inside, and we'll see a slow, grind-it-out game in the paint.
L.A. boasts a top-five defense in the NBA, and the Warriors have been dreadful offensively. They've been relying on Stephen Curry to carry them for most of the season. The Clippers rank sixth against the three with a 33.8% success rate against them, and that should really keep this game in check.
Clippers vs. Warriors Prop Pick
Morris Over 5.5 rebounds (+112) ★★★★★
Morris’ rebounding numbers have come down the past couple of games with Leonard back in the fold. But without the two-time NBA Finals MVP on Wednesday, we’ll see him return to form against Golden State.
The veteran recorded six boards as recently as last week against the Detroit Pistons, and he's gone over this number in seven of 16 games. With two forwards out of action, he should be front and center and able to shred the Warriors on the glass.
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Clippers-Warriors picks made 11/23/22 at 12:32 p.m. ET
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