Celtics vs. Knicks NBA Picks: Sleep on New York

The New York Knicks crushed the NBA odds last year. They have nowhere to go but down, starting this Wednesday night when they host the Boston Celtics.

The Knicks are back from the dead. They went 41-31 straight up and 45-26-1 against the spread (Under 40-32) last year, making them the most profitable team on the NBA odds board.

Now they're overvalued heading into Wednesday's season opener against the visiting Celtics (36-36 SU, 33-38-1 ATS, Over 37-35). Not much went right for Boston last year, but it's a different team now in many ways.

Here are my picks and predictions for Wednesday's NBA matchup between the Celtics and Knicks (odds via SBK).

Celtics vs. Knicks Game Info

Date/Time: Wednesday, October 20, 7:30 p.m. ETTV: ESPNLocation: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY

Celtics vs. Knicks Odds Analysis

The Knicks are 2-point home favorites at SBK and available elsewhere at -1.5 with a premium on juice. The consensus reports at press time show 68 percent of early bettors on New York, which opened at -1 in late August.

Wednesday's total is up to 218 points at SBK with several other sportsbooks making it 218.5 in early action. The Over has drawn 71-percent consensus at SBK.

Celtics vs. Knicks Picks

Boston +2 (-108)Over 217.5 (-112)1H Total: Under 104.5 (+120)

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Celtics vs. Knicks Predictions

Boston +2 (-108)

There isn’t much more head coach Tom Thibodeau can do to make the Knicks better. Kemba Walker joins the club at point guard, but he's coming off a relatively disappointing season with the Celtics, snapping a four-year All-Star streak.

Evan Fournier joins Walker in the backcourt after a short stint with the Celtics. He also failed to impress in Boston, although his defense has improved since he escaped the Orlando Magic.

The Celtics kicked head coach Brad Stevens upstairs to replace Danny Ainge as general manager. Ime Udoka takes over and he's considered one of the brightest minds in basketball. His players should be motivated to get Udoka the W in his first NBA game as a head coach.

Injuries were a big part of Boston's issues in 2020-21. They'll start the new campaign without the returning Al Horford (COVID-19) and Jaylen Brown might also have to miss Wednesday's game because of league protocols, but that's still nothing compared to last year's chaos.

Over 217.5 (-112)

Sharp bettors are pounding the Over this week, trying to take advantage of the uptick in 3-point shot attempts they saw during the preseason.

The Knicks finished third overall last year in 3-point accuracy at 39.2 percent behind the arc. Boston (37.4 percent) checked in at No. 10.

On the other side of the coin, these were two of the slowest offenses in the league, with the Celtics getting in 100.7 possessions per game (No. 20) and the Knicks dead last at 98.2 possessions.

Two quality defenders will be absent from this game: Horford for the Celtics and Nerlens Noel (knee) for the Knicks - although Noel is officially listed as doubtful at press time.

First-Half Total Under 104.5 (+120)

It may seem contrary given the choice to go Over, but as a general rule, it takes a while for teams to get their shooting legs underneath them. That rust will be most evident in the first half.

Taking Brown (25.8 points per 36 minutes) would help our cause. His offense is far better than his defense at this point. Horford (18.3 points per 36 minutes) hasn't lost much other than durability at age 35. He'll be missed for now.

This first-half wager is a useful hedge for your NBA picks when paired with the full-time total and both could cash in while these Atlantic Division rivals get accustomed to regular-season play. Bet accordingly.