Bulls vs. Bucks Picks, Predictions: Fade the Public on Rising Total
Can the Chicago Bulls play well enough to mitigate one of the NBA’s most prominent home-court advantages of the season? Check out our top NBA picks as the Bulls visit the Milwaukee Bucks.
Milwaukee has been one of the top home teams in the league this season. Wednesday, the Bucks host the Bulls in a game that features a rapidly rising point total.
Read on for our picks and predictions for Wednesday’s NBA matchup between the Bulls and Bucks (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our NBA best bets and our Kings vs. Hawks prop picks for Wednesday.
Bulls vs. Bucks Game Info
Date/Time: Wednesday, Nov. 23, 8 p.m. ET
TV: NBCS-CHI, BSWI
Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
Bulls vs. Bucks Odds
Bulls vs. Bucks Odds Analysis
The Bucks opened as 8-point home favorites but have been bet down to -6.5 via DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM as 84% of the money wagered on the spread has gone on the Bulls.
The total opened at 220.5 and has risen to 224 at FanDuel, 224.5 at BetMGM, and 225 at DraftKings after 97% of the money wagered on the total has gone to the Over.
Check out our top sites for Maryland sports betting.
Bulls vs. Bucks Picks
- ATS: Bucks -6.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
- Over/Under: Under 225 (-110 via DraftKings)
- Prop: Grayson Allen Over 1.5 made 3-pointers (-111 via FanDuel)
Bulls vs. Bucks ATS Pick
Bucks -6.5 (-110) ★★★★
Milwaukee has been strong as a home favorite this season, going 7-3 ATS in those situations despite failing to cover a 9.5-point spread in its most recent home game against the Portland Trail Blazers. We identified that outcome as an example of the Bucks being mispriced against a Portland team that had been dynamite as a road dog all season. Milwaukee won by eight points on Monday.
Wednesday, the number feels much more affordable on the Milwaukee side after opening at -8 and being bet down to -6.5 across the board. The Bucks are 9-1 at home this season with eight of their nine wins coming by eight or more points. Chicago is 3-3-1 ATS in road games.
The Bulls have not won a road game since November 1, and have lost their last three road contests by a margin of 9.0 points per game. Continue shopping around for changes in the odds, but as of this writing, the -6.5 (-110) odds are identical across DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM.
Check out our top sites for Maryland sports betting.
Bulls vs. Bucks O/U Pick
Under 225 (-110) ★★★
Bulls games have gone 6-11 to the Over this season for the second-lowest Over rate in the league. Games involving the Bucks aren’t much different, going 7-9 to the Over on the year.
My knee-jerk reaction to this line is that two teams with some of the lowest rates of Overs in the NBA this season should theoretically have a total lower than Wednesday's line, but bettors are absolutely hammering the Over in this matchup. I’ll count the line movement in our favor as a holiday gift, taking the Under in a game involving the best defensive efficiency in the league (Milwaukee) against Chicago’s 20th-ranked offensive efficiency.
DraftKings is currently the best book to target for the Under, with the number up to 225 and rising. FanDuel and BetMGM are close behind, but Wednesday morning has been a race to see which book can get it the highest. We’re not panicking; we’re enjoying the ride and probably waiting to submit our wager until the upward movement slows.
Bulls vs. Bucks Prop Pick
Allen Over 1.5 made 3-pointers (-111) ★★★
The Bulls enter Wednesday with the third-highest opponent 3-point percentage in the NBA this season, as Chicago has allowed a 38.5% conversion rate from deep. Bucks guard Grayson Allen has made two or more 3-pointers in five of his last six full games played. On the season, Allen is averaging 4.4 3-point attempts per game and should be in line to sink a couple of them on Wednesday night.
DraftKings and BetMGM list the Over on Allen's 1.5 3-pointers with hefty juice at -125 odds. FanDuel is the most favorable place for the wager, as that book lists Allen’s total at 1.5 with more reasonable -111 odds on the Over
Where to Bet on Bulls vs. Bucks Picks
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Bulls-Bucks picks made 11/23/2022 at 1:59 p.m. ET
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