🏀 NBA Player Props Today: Best Bets & Prop Picks for Saturday, Feb. 28

Saturday’s limited slate is headlined by a primetime showdown between the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors on ABC. I’ve also identified several betting angles tied to Luka Dončić, who has been at the center of heavy criticism around the NBA this week.

Learn how I’m backing Doncic in my NBA player props today as part of Saturday’s NBA best bets.

🏀 Best NBA player props today: Feb. 28

See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.98 units | Max profit: 2.75 units

💰 Best NBA player prop bet today

Luka Doncic Over 7.5 assists (-148) at Golden State Warriors

Plenty of criticism was directed at Doncic recently for ball-hogging.

Players are aware of what people are saying about them, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Doncic passes even more tonight. He averages 54.2 passes per game this year, ranking 15th leaguewide.

Doncic is averaging 8.6 assists per contest this season, clearing this line in three of his past four games. He'll face a Warriors team that sits 16th in assists allowed.

I’m willing to pay the -148 price at FanDuel for Over 7.5 assists. But I’d also consider parlaying this with the Lakers’ moneyline to get a plus-money price tag.

🔥 More NBA player prop picks

Luka Doncic Over 2.5 first-quarter assists (+130) at Warriors

Rather than shoot for an assist ladder with Doncic, I’m betting on him to set the tone with his first-quarter assist market instead.

Doncic typically looks to score in the opening period, averaging 11.9 points in 10.8 minutes. However, he’s also averaging 2.8 first-quarter assists and has cleared this line in 60.9% of his 46 games this year. Doncic has posted a higher hit rate in road games, clearing this first-quarter line in 15 of his 23 outings.

I believe in Doncic’s passing props on Saturday, so I’m scooping up a +130 value at bet365. The next-closest line is +108 at DraftKings.

Tyler Herro Over 3.5 assists (-110) vs. Rockets

Tyler Herro should step into a high-usage role during today’s matinee matchup against the Houston Rockets in Miami. Herro played 32 minutes last time out, which was the first time he’s been featured for more than 26 minutes since returning from injury last week.

Additionally, Norman Powell (Miami’s highest-usage player) is out with a groin injury. That’s why I expect the ball to be in Herro’s hands a lot against Houston.

Herro has recorded at least six assists in three straight contests, so I love getting a plus-money price on four-plus dimes in this matchup. BetMGM’s +110 offering is a bargain, particularly compared to Caesars’ -113 value.

💡 How I'm betting NBA player props today

Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.

Sometimes, the narrative around a player can be so overwhelming that it affects his prop markets. I think that’s the case with Doncic, who remains one of the best passers leaguewide and the center of this Lakers’ offensive system.

That’s why I’ve decided to target multiple passing props for Doncic against a Warriors team still without Jimmy Butler (out for the year) and Stephen Curry. Kristaps Porzingis is also questionable.

Get ready for a statement game from Doncic.

🚀 Best NBA parlay picks today

I love the idea of parlaying Doncic’s assist prop with the Lakers’ moneyline value, earning a plus-money price tag. For me, both are being a bit underrated against a depleted Warriors team.

I’m also throwing in Herro’s assist line, as his role is also being undervalued.