🏀 NBA Player Props & Best Bets: Best Prop Picks for Thursday, Feb. 19

From Donovan Mitchell to Kevin Durant, my best NBA player props for Thursday, Feb. 19, highlight a few scorers in a heavy slate of games after the All-Star break. The 10-game slate kicks off at 7:00 p.m. ET - time to dig in.

🏀 NBA player props: Feb. 19

See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds. 

Total wagered: 3 units | Max profit: 3.94 units

💰 Best NBA player prop: Donovan Mitchell, Cavaliers, Over 27.5 points (-102)

Check out all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.

Before the All-Star break, Mitchell flew over this number in four straight games, taking full advantage of the gravity James Harden receives since he was traded to Cleveland. He'll be up against a Nets team that has checked out this season, and rightfully so - they're playing for the draft with a 15-38 record right now. To make things worse, Brooklyn is one of the worst defending teams in basketball, allowing opponents to shoot nearly 50% from the field against them. Back Spida with confidence at two units (which is a $100 play for my bankroll).

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Kevin Durant, Rockets, Over 24.5 points (-110)

The Hornets' 16th-ranked defense likely won't be enough to stop Durant, who dropped 31 points against Charlotte earlier in February. Durant hasn't been the most efficient shooter this month, but after a few days off, coupled with a team that ranks near the bottom 10 in opponent shooting percentage, it should be enough to get the Slim Reaper over this number. I'm playing this at a half-unit (which is $25 for me) before tipoff.

Scottie Barnes, Raptors, 6+ assists (+102)

Scottie has gone over this number in three of his last four games prior to the All-Star break. He's going up against the Bulls, who own the fifth-worst defense in basketball. This game has one of the highest totals on the slate tonight, meaning there are going to be plenty of points to go around. Barnes should have every opportunity in the world to go over this number against a team giving up 28 assists per game - the third-worst mark in the NBA.

I have this play priced closer to -110, so let's take advantage of that value and play this plus-money prop at a half-unit.

💡 How I'm betting the NBA slate

Thursday’s card is built around matchup edges I’ve identified, with unit sizes adjusted based on where I see the strongest value. While I typically keep plus-money plays closer to 0.2 units, this is one of those spots where the data supports increasing exposure to a half-unit. All in, I’m risking about $150 - three total units, with my standard unit size set at $50.

If you're looking for the do's and don't of bankroll management, our LJ Blut has you covered.

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