Rafael Nadal vs. Alexander Zverev Predictions & Odds: 2024 French Open Round 1

Rafael Nadal could be facing his French Open swan song when he collides with Alexander Zverev in the first round of the 2024 French Open, and we have you covered with our Alexander Zverev vs. Rafael Nadal predictions and expert French Open picks with odds from our best sports betting sites.

Tennis fans will surely be conflicted when they're treated to what feels like a semifinal match more than a first-round one.

Rafael Nadal faces off against world No. 4 Alexander Zverev in his highly anticipated return to the French Open. The downside to this is that either the legendary Nadal or the fourth-ranked Zverev will be out this early.

Nadal returns to Roland Garros for the first time since his 2022 victory. Nadal's history at Roland Garros is second to none, with 14 titles and an incredible record of 112 wins out of 115 matches.

This first-round encounter against Zverev is as daunting as the two-year journey Nadal has endured to return to the court. Zverev, the fourth-biggest favorite to win the tournament by to the French Open odds, is aiming for his first Grand Slam title. Nadal will certainly be in tough as he looks to reclaim his throne.

Here is our best Nadal vs. Zverev prediction for the 2024 French Open first-round match (pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Rafael Nadal vs. Alexander Zverev odds

(Odds via DraftKings)

Rafael Nadal vs. Alexander Zverev prediction

Zverev to win in 4 sets ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The last time Zverev and Nadal met at the French Open was the 2022 semifinal. Zverev was forced to retire after suffering a severe ankle injury, causing him to miss the remainder of the 2022 season. Nadal went on to win his 14th French Open title.

How things have changed since.

Nadal, who turns 38 on June 3, has endured a torturous two years, riddled with more injury concerns than most endure through an entire career. The legendary 37-year-old missed the 2023 French Open due to a left hip flexor injury that required surgery. The battle-torn Spaniard has appeared in only 12 Grand Slam matches since his 2022 victory at Roland Garros.

Zverev, who is 10-3 on clay this season, won the Italian Open a week ago and has played more matches on the red surface than Nadal has on any court all season. The German has played exceptionally recently, reaching the semifinals at the Australian Open and the Miami Open. While Nadal has a 7-3 head-to-head advantage over Zverev, this first-round match has an altogether different feel. 

The 27-year-old German is rounding into top form, the best he's played since that fateful Roland-Garros semifinal against Nadal. On the other side of the net defiantly stands Nadal, who has appeared in just four tournaments this year, two of which ended in the second round. His best result came at the Madrid Open, where he made it to the fourth round.

While Nadal is capable of things mere mortals aren't, his palpable lack of match time and fitness concerns, particularly in a best-of-five contest, will probably lead to only his third first-round exit at a Grand Slam. Sheer will, determination, and unrivaled success should see the French Open GOAT win a set.

Best odds: +280 via BetMGM

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Zverev odds to win in 4 sets 

Nadal has never been such a comprehensive underdog. He's trading as long as +300 at our best sports betting apps, highlighting the countless factors against him. Zverev, 27, is playing his best tennis entering the second Grand Slam. He has advanced to the semifinals at the French Open in the last three seasons and shouldn't have too many issues upending the tournament's most successful player. 

However, Nadal can win a set. Not only will he have the unopposed support of the sold-out crowd, but Nadal is a demi-god on the Roland Garros courts, winning 97% of his matches since his first French Open in 2005. Plus, Nadal has a champion's willpower and determination. Those factors should lead to winning one set.

At +280, BetMGM offers the best value, with the odds representing an implied win probability of 26.32%. A winning $10 bet pays a profit of $28. 

Nadal vs. Zverev French Open match info

• When: Monday, May 27
• Time: 8:30 a.m. ET
• Where: Roland-Garros, Paris, France
• How to watch: NBC, NBCSports.com, Peacock

Nadal-Zverev pick made Sunday at 11 a.m. ET

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