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Alex Pereira celebrates with the championship belt as we look at the full UFC 303 card betting odds & lines.
Alex Pereira celebrates with the championship belt during UFC 300 at T-Mobile Arena. Photo by: Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports.

We had spent months getting hyped about UFC 303 for the return of Conor McGregor, but what we're getting looks vastly different as we check out the UFC 303 odds and betting lines from our best UFC betting sites.

It looked like Conor McGregor would return to the Octagon against Englishman Michael Chandler at UFC 303. However, the outspoken Irishman's injury prevented that, as he was forced to pull out of the first announced fight of his career.

The headliner is different, but the rest of the card looks like what we've been prepping for.

The Light Heavyweight strap will be on the line between Alex Pereira and the challenger, Jiri Prochazka, at Pereira-Prochazka 2 which takes the place as the headliner instead of McGregor-Chandler.

We'll still see one Irish-English battle as well, as Ian Machado Garry will face Michael Page. The undefeated Payton Talbott will risk his unblemished record against Yanis Ghemmouri, and we'll be treated to a Heavyweight throwdown between Andrei Arlovski and Martin Buday.

Here’s our breakdown of the UFC 303 odds and betting lines for Saturday's full card to help with your UFC picks.

UFC 303 odds - Main Card

Odds via bet365 last updated Friday at 11:15 a.m. ET.

FightFavoriteUnderdog
Alex Pereira vs. Jiri ProchazkaPereira (-150)Prochazka (+125)
Diego Lopes vs. Brian OrtegaLopes (-138)Ortega (+110)
Roman Dolidze vs. Anthony SmithDolidze (-138)Smith (+110)
Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Macy ChiassonBueno Silva (-110)Chiasson (-110)
Ian Machado Garry vs. Michael PageMachado Garry (-160)Page (+130)

Pereira is no stranger to title fights. The Brazilian once battled in the Middleweight division, winning his first title from Israel Adesanya in Nov. 2022, which he promptly lost in their rematch at UFC 287 in April 2023. 

He then switched to Light Heavyweight, and at UFC 295 in Nov. 2023, he topped Prochazka in their first meeting to claim the vacated title. In April 2024, he successfully defended the strap against Jamahal Hill. 

bet365 has him lined as though he'll add another successful defense to his resume, although the odds have been moving against him as the week has progressed. He was getting -170 odds to win the rematch on Monday but is now lined at -150, which our Odds Converter tells us is a 60% implied win percentage, profiting $6.67 on a $10 wager.

Our Themi Alexis has you covered for the main event with his Pereira vs. Prochazka prediction.

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UFC 303 odds - Prelims

Odds via Caesars last updated Friday at 11:20 p.m. ET.

FightFavoriteUnderdog
Joe Pyfer vs. Marc-Andre BarriaultPyfer (-300)Barriault (+240)
Andre Fili vs. Cub SwansonFili (-235)Swanson (+195)
Charles Jourdain vs. Jean SilvaJourdain (-115)Silva (-105)
Payton Talbott vs. Yanis GhemmouriTalbott (-1600)Ghemmouri (+800)

There's no bigger betting favorite at UFC 303 than Talbott, who is putting his undefeated professional MMA record on the line against Ghemmouri. Talbott picked up two KO/TKO victories in FirePower Promotions MMA before moving to Urijah Faber's A1 Combat, where he notched three more KO/TKO wins. 

The lone time the judges were involved in his career was a unanimous-decision victory over Reyes Cortez Jr. at DWCS: Season 7, Week 1. His two UFC fights have also ended in stoppages, as he submitted Nick Aguirre in in Nov. 2023 and got back to his KO/TKO ways against Cameron Saaiman in March 2024. 

His -1600 odds imply a 94.12% win percentage, but profit just 63 cents on a $10 wager over at Caesars.

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UFC 303 odds - Early prelims

Odds via BetMGM last updated Thursday at 12:25 p.m. ET.

FightFavoriteUnderdog
Gillian Robertson vs. Michelle Waterson-GomezRobertston (-185)Waterson-Gomez (+150)
Martin Buday vs. Andrei ArlovskiBuday (-250)Arlovski (+200)
Rei Tsuruya vs. Carlos HernandezTsuruya (-455)Hernandez (+340)
Ricky Simon vs. Vinicius OliveiraSimon (-250)Oliveira (+200)

The card's lone Heavyweight battle occurs in the early prelims with Buday and Arlovski. At 45 years old, Alovski enters on a skid, dropping three straight since the last time he had his arm raised in April 2022. BetMGM isn't expecting that skid to end, listing the American at +200 against the much younger Buday.

That's just a 33.33% implied win percentage, but a win profits $20 on a $10 wager.

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UFC 303 info

  • When: June 29, 2024
  • Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
  • How to watch: Early Prelims - 6 p.m. ET (ESPN/ESPN+), Prelims - 8 p.m. ET (ESPN/ESPN+), Main Card - 10 p.m. ET (Pay-per-view)

How to read UFC betting odds

Understanding UFC betting odds is essential for making informed wagers. Let's break it down with examples:

  • Positive odds (+): Positive odds indicate the potential profit on a $100 wager. For instance, if a fighter has odds of +250, it means that a $100 bet on that fighter would yield a profit of $250 if they win the fight. So, your total payout would be $350 ($250 profit + $100 original stake).
  • Negative odds (-): Negative odds represent the amount you need to wager to win $100 in profit. For example, if a fighter has odds of -150, it means that you would need to bet $150 to win $100 in profit if that fighter wins. Your total payout would be $250 ($100 profit + $150 original stake).

Now, let's consider an actual UFC betting scenario:

  • Fighter A: +200
  • Fighter B: -180

For Fighter A (+200), a $100 bet would result in a $200 profit, making the total payout $300. For Fighter B (-180), you would need to wager $180 to win $100 in profit, resulting in a total payout of $280.

Understanding these odds helps you evaluate the potential payout and implied probability of each fighter winning a UFC fight. Positive odds indicate an underdog, while negative odds signify a favorite.

Here are our best UFC betting sites:

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