Pereira vs. Prochazka Prediction, Expert Picks & Odds: UFC 303

Ahead of UFC 303’s Light Heavyweight championship bout in Las Vegas, read about our Pereira vs. Prochazka prediction based on the odds from our best UFC betting sites.

With a broken toe knocking Conor McGregor out of Saturday’s original main event opposite Michael Chandler, Alex Pereira now headlines UFC 303 with a Light Heavyweight title defense against Jiri Prochazka, the man he beat to win the crown at UFC 295 last November.

The Brazilian’s second-round TKO of Prochazka made him the only fighter to win both the UFC Middleweight and Light Heavyweight championships, a rare feat he completed in just seven walks to the Octagon over two years. Pereira has since defended the light heavyweight strap with a first-round KO of Jamahal Hill, and he now heads to Vegas with a career slate of 10-2 with eight stoppages by KO/TKO.

As for the other half of Saturday’s short-notice main event, Prochazka aims to become a two-time divisional king not three months after disposing of Aleksandar Rakic by second-round TKO. The Czech native first claimed the crown by tapping Glover Teixeira back in June 2022, only to vacate it later that year due to a shoulder injury.

His win over Rakic at UFC 300 put him back in the win column following his loss to Pereira and brought his promotional slate to 4-1, with all those bouts ending before the final horn.

We have been covering all of the UFC 303 odds throughout the week.

Pereira vs. Prochazka prediction and pick

  (odds via our best sports betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).  

• Fight prediction: Pereira moneyline (-145 via betMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• My best bet: Pereira by KO/TKO (+125 via betMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Pereira vs. Prochazka fight analysis

Given the recency of the pair’s first matchup, I expect Saturday’s rematch will play out in a nearly identical fashion.

In a clash between a methodical kickboxer in Pereira and a dangerous, albeit reckless dynamo in Prochazka. The former takes the cage with the upper hand in both significant strike accuracy and defense. Indeed, Pereira lands over 60 percent of his attempts and avoids over half of the opposition’s, while Prochazka’s significant strike defense sits at just 41 percent.

Yes, Prochazka’s movement, pressure, and strike selection are all worthy of Pereira’s respect, but as the superior fundamental technician, the Brazilian should spend the first frame making his reads and drawing Prochazka out with feints. Once the defending champion finds his timing, look for him to make Prochazka pay for one of his patented reckless entries in the most brutal fashion and keep the light heavyweight crown in Brazil.

Pereira entered fight week as the slight favorite in his rematch with the challenger, and the lines on Saturday’s matchup have held relatively steady. Some of our best sportsbooks list the defending light heavyweight champ at a respectable -148, although it's BetMGM leading the way for the favorite at -145 as of Friday morning.

Prediction: Pereira moneyline (-145 via BetMGM)

Pereira vs. Prochazka best bet

Just about all the prop lines on this matchup are worth your attention, but I'd avoid the round props for this one in favor of Pereira's preferred method of victory. Given their respective fighting styles and knockout rates (80% for Pereira, 87% for Prochazka), I expect Saturday's closer to end with one of these men counting the lights.

While preparing for an attack as unpredictable and manifold as Prochazka's remains a tall order, Pereira's stoicism and fundamentals should be enough to weather any early storms from the Czech challenger, after which he'll find the timing on his patented left hook and other counters to make Prochazka rue his reckless ways. In short, he'll likely eat a little leather for his trouble, but Pereira should emphatically cap a surefire barnburner and leave Prochazka laying in a heap on the canvas, just as he did late last year.

As of Friday morning, the lines on a ninth career KO/TKO for the reigning titleholder offer a respectable bang for your buck, with some of our best sports betting apps listing a Pereira stoppage via strikes at +110. But BetMGM again gets the nod, offering a Pereira KO/TKO at a solid +125.

Best bet: Pereira by KO/TKO (+125 via BetMGM)

Pereira vs. Prochazka odds

Odds via BetMGM as of Friday.

Pereira vs. Prochazka tale of the tape

Pereira vs. Prochazka fight info

• When: Saturday, June 29, with main card starting at 10 p.m. ET
• Where: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas
• How to watch: Early Prelims and Prelims - ESPN+; Main Card - Pay-per-view
• Favorite: Pereira -145 (via BetMGM)

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Pereira vs. Prochazka pick made Friday at 10 a.m. ET

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