Sky vs. Mercury Prediction, Betting Odds & WNBA Expert Picks: Tonight, Aug. 28

Phoenix is a whopping 12.5-point favorite, but they are playing 9-win Chicago. Too many points?

Shane Jackson

Last Updated: August 28, 2025 4:42 PM EDT • 4 minute read

Sky vs. Mercury Prediction, Betting Odds & WNBA Expert Picks: Tonight, Aug. 28 — Pictured: DeWanna Bonner and the Phoenix Mercury should roll past Chicago, as I say in my Sky vs. Mercury Prediction. Photo by Rick Scuteri / Imagn Images.

There's a ton of momentum for the Phoenix Mercury (23-14), and that is represented in my Sky vs. Mercury prediction, as they take on the Chicago Sky (9-28) at 10 p.m. ET on tonight in PHX Arena on Amazon Prime.

Phoenix, which has won four of its past five games, is a 12.5-point favorite against Chicago. For my latest WNBA picks, I believe it’s worth laying the points.

While Alyssa Thomas has been a big part of the Mercury’s recent success, my favorite WNBA prediction involves an Under for one of her player props.

📊 Sky vs. Mercury odds: Aug. 28

WNBA odds update live in real time.

📈 Sky vs. Mercury betting odds analysis

The Mercury begin as 12.5-point favorites against the Sky. They haven’t been laying this much since early August, when they covered a 15-point spread against the Sun and a 12.5-point line in Chicago.

I believe in Phoenix’s current form.

👀 Sky vs. Mercury betting insights

Similar to the other two WNBA games tonight, there's a big spread here, and the betting public is leaning to the underdog. As of 4:40 p.m. ET at BetMGM, 53% of bettors were on Chicago at +12.5.
Most of the other major sportsbooks had the line at Phoenix -12 on Thursday afternoon.
Just like bettors are on the underdogs in the WNBA on Thursday, they are also on the Over. Here, 53% were taking the Over 164.5.

🏀 Sky vs. Mercury expert picks

WNBA expert picks made Wednesday; odds subject to change.

Moneyline pick: Mercury ML (-847 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
Against the spread pick: Mercury -12.5 (-108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Over/Under pick: Over 163 (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

🔮 Sky vs. Mercury prediction & best bet

🌡️ Mercury -12.5 (-108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

The Mercury have done an excellent job at taking care of business against the bottom of the league. They are 12-1 in games against the five teams outside the playoff picture: Sky, Los Angeles Sparks, Washington Mystics, Connecticut Sun, and Dallas Wings.

Phoenix is 3-0 against Chicago this year, winning by an average margin of 14 points per game.

When the market expects the Mercury to dominate, they typically have done so. In the past six games that the Mercury have been -8 or higher, they have covered the spread five times.

After overhauling the roster in the offseason, Phoenix dealt with several injuries to start the year. It looks like the Mercury have begun to put it together at the right time, which is why I’m comfortable laying -12.5 with a $10 bet to net a $9.26 profit.

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💰 Best Sky vs. Mercury player prop bet

⬇️ Alyssa Thomas Under 15.5 points (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Sky vs. Mercury Prediction, Betting Odds & WNBA Expert Picks: Aug. 28 — Pictured: Will Phoenix's Alyssa Thomas (25) fail to get above 15.5 points vs. lowly Chicago on Thursday? It's my top prop bet in Sky vs. Mercury. Photo by Rick Scuteri / Imagn Images.

Thomas notched her seventh triple-double of the season, but she only needed 12 points to accomplish the feat. She’s scored Under 15.5 points in seven of her 11 games this month.

Thomas won’t need to score much for Phoenix to defeat Chicago, as evidenced by the fact that she hasn’t cleared this mark any of the three head-to-head meetings this year. A $10 wager nets a $8.77 profit.

🚑 Sky vs. Mercury injuries

📺 Sky vs. Mercury game info

When: Thursday, Aug. 28
Tipoff: 10 p.m. ET
Where: PHX Arena (Phoenix)
How to watch: Amazon Prime

💡 Expert WNBA predictions Thursday

❓ Sky vs. Mercury FAQs

Who is the favorite to win Sky vs. Mercury?

The Mercury are 12.5-point favorites against the Sky on Thursday at PHX Arena.

How do WNBA spread odds work?

When betting on the WNBA, the favorite needs to win by a certain number of points to cover the "point spread" - also known as the betting line. Conversely, the underdog needs to lose by fewer than the points displayed in the spread or win outright to cash. For example, a 3-point favorite would need to win by 4 or more points to reward bettors.

How do WNBA moneyline odds work?

When betting on the WNBA, the underdog will have the "longer" odds and is typically priced at "plus-money" odds that indicate the profit on a $100 bet. For example, a team with +150 odds would turn a $100 bet into a $150 profit - or a $10 bet into a $15 profit - according to our odds converter.

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Written by:
Shane Jackson

Shane Jackson has been writing for Sportsbook Review since 2022, though his passion for sports, writing, and betting runs much longer than that. He graduated from the University of Kansas with a journalism degree in 2017 and has been covering sports ever since, working for MLB.com, Manhattan Mercury, Lawrence Journal-World, WynnBET, Bet Chicago Sports, BetNOLA, and BetMGM. Jackson cares about creating quality sports betting content above all else. He uses NFL experience, a mixture of models, information, film, analysis, and a top-down approach to locate every best bet shared for SBR. He never gives out a pick that he wouldn’t be willing to spend his own money on. Jackson is focused on finding +EV bets on a daily basis for a variety of sports such as NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, NBA, WNBA, and MLB. He usually bets on props but is willing to wager on a spread or total when there is an edge. Don’t ask him how many bets he has placed on a typical college football Saturday. Jackson doesn’t care if you follow him on social media, but his Twitter account has info on how you can follow his bets through multiple third-party platforms. He just wants you to read all the great work from the SBR team.