Mercury vs. Aces Prediction, WNBA Best Bets Odds: Tonight

A key meeting among teams prominent in the WNBA championship odds will face off Thursday at 10 p.m. ET (Prime Video), as the Las Vegas Aces host the Phoenix Mercury from Michelob Ultra Arena in Paradise, Nev., and I have three value plays in my Mercury vs. Aces prediction.

With both teams featuring multiple offensive stars, I am backing the Over in what should be a competitive game.

🔮 Mercury vs. Aces prediction: WNBA expert picks

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✅ Moneyline pick: Aces (-125 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Against the spread pick: Aces -1.5 (-108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Over/Under pick: Over 167.5 (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

🏀 Mercury vs. Aces odds today

Live updated WNBA odds from our best sports betting sites.

🆚 Who will win Mercury vs. Aces?

✅ Moneyline pick: Aces will win (-125 via bet365)

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While the Mercury have been one of the best teams in the WNBA all season, the Aces are playing better basketball right now. Las Vegas completely has turned its fortune around after a slow start to the season, and it has won 10 of 11 games behind some of the best performances of A'ja Wilson's career.

That includes her scoring 30 on the road against Phoenix just last week in an 86-83 Aces win (which she followed up with 66 combined points over her next two games). My Mercury vs. Aces prediction projects a similar outcome, with Vegas winning this one 88-85.  

💰 Mercury vs. Aces best bet & WNBA predictions

🚀 Over 167.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: -105 via BetMGM ($10 to win $9.52)

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During its turnaround, Las Vegas has leaned on some stellar offensive play, which has helped turn it into a consistent Over bet. The Aces are 8-4 betting the Over since late July, which includes hitting it last week against the Mercury when the two teams combined for 169 points.

While Vegas still ranks sixth (106.4) in offensive rating after a slow start to the season, Becky Hammon's offense has been lethal as of late. Over the past nine games, the Aces are averaging 85.6 points, are shooting 44.4% from the floor and 36.5% from behind the arc - all far better than their season averages. At the same time, their defense remains a problem. On the season, they're ninth in defensive rating (106.3) and points allowed (82.6), and they've allowed even more in August (83.4). 

Behind Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally, and Kahleah Copper, the Mercury's offense shouldn't struggle to score. Thomas, in particular, has been unbelievable this season, as she leads the league in assists per game (9.0) and is No. 3 in PER (25.8). With the MVP contender leading the charge, the Mercury are fifth in points per game (83.6) and third in pace rate (78.7). These two teams are positioned to hit the Over again.

👀 Mercury vs. Aces player prop

⬆️ A'ja Wilson Over 36.5 points + rebounds ⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: -110 via bet365 ($10 to win $9.09)

While Wilson probably won't win her fourth MVP this season, she's clearly showing no signs of slowing down. The former No. 1 pick is second in the league in points per game (22.9) and rebounds per game (10.0). She's also been playing some of the best basketball of her career in recent weeks.

Wilson has gone Over 36.5 points and rebounds in five of her last six games, averaging 29 points and 14 boards per game over that stretch. She's also just a few games removed from combining for 46 points and rebounds against the Mercury. 

❓ WNBA betting FAQs

How do WNBA betting odds work?

WNBA betting odds show the potential payout and implied probability of a bet. Favorites have minus odds (e.g., -120), while underdogs have plus odds (e.g., +150).

What does betting against the spread mean?

Betting against the spread in the WNBA means picking a team to win by a certain number of points (the spread) or to lose by fewer than that number.

What is moneyline betting?

Moneyline betting is picking which WNBA team will win the game outright, with no point spread involved. Odds show how much you win based on your bet.

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