UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot MMA Odds and Picks

The UFC heads back to the Apex for its June 25 Fight Night, with Arman Tsarukyan and Mateusz Gamrot meeting in a compelling lightweight clash. Check out our Tsarukyan-Gamrot picks ahead of Saturday’s main event.

After a most violent weekend in Texas, the UFC returns to the cozy confines of the Apex in Vegas to feature a pair of surging lightweights.

Arman Tsarukyan will put his five-fight win streak on the line in Saturday’s headliner against Poland’s Mateusz Gamrot, who heads stateside with three straight victories to his name. With both these imports nipping at the heels of the divisional top 10, a W for either man would undoubtedly lead to a crack at an elite contender in a weight class that’s never wanted for world-class talent.

Will Tsarukyan wrestle-bang his way to a sixth straight win, or will Gamrot play spoiler and announce his arrival to the division’s top tier in a most violent fashion?

Here are my Tsarukyan-Gamrot picks and predictions for Saturday’s pivotal lightweight tilt (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot Fight Info

Date: Saturday, June 25, 7 p.m. ET (main card)TV: ESPN, ESPN+Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV

Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot Odds Analysis

These two boast very similar skill sets, but you wouldn’t know it by glancing at the lines on this weekend’s closer, as Tsarukyan heads to Vegas as a comfortable -330 favorite with FanDuel. DraftKings is offering the best value on a Tsarukyan win at -280, while a victory via decision or KO/TKO would net tempting payouts at +160 and +290, respectively, with FanDuel.

As for the lesser-known half of this matchup, Gamrot perhaps isn’t getting the respect he deserves from oddsmakers, and if you’re pining for the Polish product to end Tsarukyan’s streak, you’ll find a compelling line of +240 with both FanDuel and Caesars Sportsbook.

Arman Tsarukyan Betting Profile

Tsarukyan more than held his own against lightweight boogeyman Islam Makhachev in his 2019 UFC debut, and his record has seen nothing but green since that competitive decision loss. The Armenian prospect has bested the likes of Olivier Aubin-Mercier, Christos Giagos, and, most recently, Joel Alvarez over his five-fight win streak. And though he relied heavily on his wrestling in the first half of this stretch, he proved to pack a solid wallop in his mitts in the latter two victories.

Now tasked with a fellow wrestler who’s equally comfortable slinging leather, Tsarukyan may have to rely on both his takedowns and his hands in equal measure come fight night.

Mateusz Gamrot Betting Profile

Gamrot ventured across the pond in 2020 as a former two-division KSW champion with an unblemished record, and like Saturday’s dance partner, he fell short on the scorecards in his Octagon debut opposite Guram Kutateladze and hasn’t lost since.

The 31-year-old has won each of his ensuing three fights within the distance, stopping seasoned competition in Jeremy Stephens, Scott Holtzman, and Diego Ferreira. A well-rounded bruiser with a solid wrestling base, Gamrot can mix it up on the feet and put in a more workmanlike effort on the mat when he needs to, but he now meets a foe who can match him skill for skill, no matter where the action goes.

Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot Picks

Tsarukyan (-280 via DraftKings) ???Tsarukyan by decision (+160 via FanDuel) ??

Check out our top-rated sportsbooks here

Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot Predictions

Tsarukyan (-280)

Despite what the odds may imply, this one’s a tough clash to call, as wrestler-on-wrestler matchups can occasionally produce snoozers that are near-impossible to score. However, Tsarukyan’s newfound confidence in his hands is what settles it for me.

If he and Gamrot enter some gentleman’s agreement out of respect for each other’s wrestling, I expect Tsarukyan to take the center of the cage and sling leather with fight-ending intentions, and the more he keeps Gamrot on the back foot, the better his chances of peppering in the odd takedown and securing rounds to make it six in a row.

Tsarukyan by decision (+160)

Tsarukyan has won his last two via strikes, while Gamrot has earned three consecutive stoppages in the Octagon, but neither man is averse to grinding his way to a decision. Unlike his foe, Gamrot is no stranger to five-round tilts, but Tsarukyan’s forward pressure and grueling chain-wrestling may get him ahead on the scorecards early and have Gamrot fading by the later rounds.

Though it’s not inconceivable that Tsarukyan’s mitts hit pay dirt for a third straight knockout, Gamrot’s varied striking and excellent scrambling abilities should keep him out of serious trouble throughout Saturday’s headliner.

I’m leaning toward a fourth UFC win by decision for Tsarukyan in what should prove a proper war of attrition.

Where to Bet on Tsarukyan-Gamrot Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Tsarukyan-Gamrot picks made on 6/23/2022 at 12:29 a.m. ET.