Olivia Chow the Runaway Betting Odds Leader in Toronto Mayoral Race
Who is in the driver's seat to replace John Tory as the mayor of Toronto? James Bisson breaks down the latest odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook, with the Toronto mayoral by-election quickly approaching.
With just under four weeks left, the Toronto mayoral picture has become a one-candidate race.
Olivia Chow is the runaway leader according to FanDuel Canada's latest odds, which list the 2014 third-place finisher as a whopping -500 favorite. Those odds put Chow at a 83.3% implied probability of becoming the City of Toronto's first woman mayor since Barbara Hall, who held the position from 1994-97.
Chow has steadily seen her odds shorten since the market was first listed earlier in May, when nominations officially closed. The City of Toronto mayoral position opened up in mid-February when incumbent John Tory submitted his resignation after news broke of his extramarital affair with a staffer.
Here are the current mayoral odds:
| Candidate | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Olivia Chow | -500 | 83.33% |
| Mark Saunders | +800 | 11.11% |
| Ana Bailao | +1400 | 6.67% |
| Mitzie Hunter | +1600 | 5.88% |
| Josh Matlow | +2000 | 4.76% |
| Brad Bradford | +2000 | 4.76% |
| Chloe Brown | +2300 | 4.17% |
| Giorgio Mammoliti | +2700 | 3.57% |
| Celina Caesar-Chavannes | +2700 | 3.57% |
| Anthony Furey | +3300 | 2.94% |
| Blake Acton | +4000 | 2.44% |
| Frank D'Angelo | +4000 | 2.44% |
| Mark LeLiever | +4000 | 2.44% |
(Odds updated Wednesday, May 31 at 8:30 a.m. ET)
Here's a closer look at the most notable candidates:
Olivia Chow (-500)
FanDuel loves Chow – and so do the bettors, having moved her from an opening of +175 to the overwhelming top choice to win the job.
The 66-year-old is the heaviest hitter in the race when it comes to political pedigree, with her political career spanning nearly 40 years. She spent eight years as Member of Parliament for Trinity-Spadina prior to her unsuccessful run at the Toronto mayoral job. and she and her late husband Jack Layton – the former federal leader of the New Democratic Party – were integral to elevating the NDP to Official Opposition status in 2011.
That said, her latest foray into the Toronto mayoral tempest might feel all-too-familiar to those who supported her previous run. Chow was considered a hefty favorite in the early stages of the 2014 race but fell well behind Tory and Ford, a development experts attributed to strategic voting that focused on the Liberal vs. Conservative tete-a-tete, leaving the NDP on the outside.
Mark Saunders (+800)
Saunders' standing as the No. 2 favorite at one of the best sports betting sites, FanDuel, provides an intriguing juxtaposition atop the odds board.
While Chow is easily the most experienced politician on the list, Saunders' electoral record is comparatively barren; in his first taste of municipal politics, he lost to Stephanie Bowman in 2022 in a tight race for the Member of Provincial Parliament spot in Don Valley West.
Yet it's the fact that Saunders and Chow are diametrically opposed that makes him such an intriguing candidate. The Progressive Conservative and former chief of police with the Toronto Police Service spent nearly 40 years with TPS and is running on a platform that focuses on community safety and crime prevention – two topics Torontonians care about passionately.
Ana Bailao (+1400)
Can Bailao pull off the upset? FanDuel bettors are increasingly pessimistic based on her odds movement, as she has slid all the way down to +1400 after being as high as +550 at one point.
Elected as Ward 9 Davenport councillor in 2018 on the strength of an 83.6% voter share, Bailao is considered one of the biggest wild-cards in the Toronto mayoral race – and she took the fight to Chow at the first debate between top candidates in Etobicoke, suggesting that her opponent has been more focused on the NDP than on the City of Toronto.
Bailao, who moved to Canada from Portugal at age 15, is a major proponent of more affordable housing in the city, and most of her other policies are geared toward improving Toronto's public transit experience. Her message ("Affordability ... community safety ... getting around the city ... we need real solutions to the real problems") is clearly geared toward the younger end of the electorate – but will they show her the support needed to get her elected?
Expect to see the odds shift further as we move closer to election day.
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