🎤 State of the Union Prediction Markets: What Will Trump Say?

The State of the Union prediction markets offer a vast swath of ways to trade on tonight's pivotal speech that will begin at 9 p.m. ET on all the major networks. 

It's expected to be a lengthy one given all the significant factors at play right now both domestically and abroad. But exactly how long? And what places and people will Trump mention?

There are markets for those questions and more. Usually the value lies in the middle of those markets, and with the outcomes getting around a 50% chance. That's where we'll focus.

🎤 State of the Union prediction markets

It's hard to understate the importance of this State of the Union speech for Trump, the first one since he was reelected.

There's turmoil both on the home front in Minneapolis, and abroad due to foreign aggression tied to tariffs (many of which the Supreme Court just struck down), and the pursuit of Greenland. His approval rating sits at just 39%, according to The Economist.

And there's conflict even within his own party. It's all happening as midterms loom this fall, when Democrats are expected to enjoy significant success.

That's the backdrop of the evening, along with increasing tensions with Iran. Toss is all together, and the address is critical for Trump to set the tone for the coming year. The prediction markets are covering all angles.

💬 What will Trump say during the State of the Union?

Options like Olympics, hockey, ICE, stock market, and nuclear are all getting an 80% chance or above, and it seems highly likely each will come out of the president's mouth early.

The same goes for "radical left" at 70%, though somehow "the state of our Union is strong" sits just below that 70% threshold. That's been a staple of this address for all of eternity.

"Fake news" (52%) used to be his calling card in nearly every public address, but that's now giving off a more retro first-term vibes. Ditto for "drill baby drill" (43%). But given his aspirations of national security, "golden dome" (56%) feels safe and still profitable. 

If you're wanting a long shot though, ride with "Sleepy Joe" (32%), as Trump often still likes to reference his predecessor while discussing the economy.

Prediction: Golden dome (56%, -127 odds)

🎟️ Who will attend the State of the Union address?

It's tradition for the sitting Supreme Court justices to not only attend the event, but they get front row seats.

With that in mind, it seems odd at first that several justices are trading at 65% of lower. While they surely have the thick skin to take it, there may be little desire from some of them to face what will no doubt be a public finger-wagging from Trump.

The president is displeased about the recent ruling knocking down many of his tariffs, calling the justices who voted against "fools and lapdogs" during a press briefing this past Friday, adding that those who brought the lawsuit are "sleazebags" and "slimeballs."

The ruling came despite the court consisting of a 6-3 conservative majority, with two Trump-appointed justices voting against (Neil Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett). That's why Gorsuch is trading at just 56%, which is quite low for a sitting member of the court.

Prediction: Gorsuch attends (56%, -127 odds)

🫵 Who will Trump mention during his State of the Union address?

The easy money here is on Charlie Kirk, the Conservative icon who was tragically killed this past September.

A lot of energy on the right since then has been placed on not only honoring and paying tribute to Kirk, but seeing who can best carry his message forward. Trump has spoken publicly many times about Kirk, but this speech carries added weight due to the decorum and prestige tied to tonight.

Prediction: Charlie Kirk (56%, -127 odds)

📍 What places will Trump mention in his State of the Union address?

Tensions over Greenland have faded somewhat, though it still remains a hot-button issue due to how much it galvanized Europe. And most notably, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who gave an impassioned speech during the World Economic Forum in Davos, during which he referenced a "new world order."

It's difficult to gauge though how Trump will approach the Greenland matter. He often goes off script, but even Trump may be wary of reigniting a topic that brings up angst at home. A CNN poll in mid-January showed that 75% of those surveyed oppose the U.S. "attempting to take control of Greenland," via Politico.

Cuba seems very likely be included, far more than its 51% chances imply. It's now the focus of Trump's foreign aggression, with his administration blocking oil from reaching Cuba.

Prediction: Cuba (50%, +100 odds)

⏳ How long will Trump speak for during his State of the Union address?

Trump himself said the speech will be lengthy, resulting in this market climbing even further upward. It's been steadily rising from a low of 82.8 minutes on Feb. 21 to now 99.4.

"It's going to be a long speech because we have so much to talk about," Trump said last week, and there's no doubting that simple fact.

With Trump and his speeches though, it's often less about the weight of the subjects, as the length of his addresses comes from the president's speaking style. It frequently features a tendency for meandering thoughts and tangents to enter into the proceedings, further lengthening what may have already been a long section had he stuck to the teleprompter.

Trump's State of the Union speeches during his first term averaged around one hour and 20 minutes, according to The Hill. He set the all-time record during a joint address last year, finishing in one hour, 39 minutes, and 32 seconds.

Prediction: 95 minutes or above (68%, -212 odds)

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