Ruoff Mortgage 500 Expert Picks and NASCAR Bet Slips: Will Kyle Busch Cruise to a Win?

The NASCAR Cup Series continues at the Phoenix Raceway in Phoenix, Arizona. Read on for our top Ruoff Mortgage 500 picks.

There's value in backing Kevin Harvick ahead of the Ruoff Mortgage 500. Harrison Burton is also an appealing longshot, and one manufacturer could occupy plenty of top-10 spots.

Here are our NASCAR expert picks for the 2022 Ruoff Mortgage 500, including outrights, longshots, matchups, and props (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and BetMGM).

Ruoff Mortgage 500 picks

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SEE ALSO: Ruoff Mortgage 400 Picks and Preview

Ruoff Mortgage 500 Picks to Win

Kyle Busch (+750 via FanDuel)

Kyle Busch benefits significantly from the launch of the Next Gen car. After multiple seasons featuring cars that didn’t require drivers to lift in the corners, we’re back to a sport that rewards serious car control and raw talent.

We’ve seen Kyle Busch demonstrate his ability early in 2021-22. He won his qualifying race at the Clash and almost took the whole race. He then finished sixth during the Daytona 500, 14th in the Wise Power 400, and fourth in Las Vegas after leading laps in two of those events.

Busch’s strong performance at the Clash is somewhat instructive here. While Phoenix isn’t technically a short track, it’s close to it, and the Coliseum is the shortest track the Next Gen has been featured at in 2022.

Kyle Busch has been good here historically as well. He won the first two races after the track’s reconfiguration in 2018. Busch has finished inside the top three in four of the seven races held since then.

Although Busch struggled in 2020 and 2021, the new car means better days are ahead for NASCAR’s winningest active driver. Look for him to bring home victory No. 60 on Sunday afternoon. - Sirois

Kevin Harvick (+2000 via DraftKings)

No name appears more than Kevin Harvick among the winners at this track. Harvick has racked up nine career victories at Phoenix Raceway over 38 outings since 2001. He’s driven several versions of the Cup cars, but Harvick has still found his way to the front.

Harvick has won the most races here out of any driver in NASCAR history, and he’s led the most laps while pacing the field 1,663 times. Additionally, he's finished inside the top 10 in 17 straight races at Phoenix. That includes four straight wins between the 2013 and 2015 seasons.

It's clear oddsmakers are leaning on Harvick's recent lack of wins going back to the 2021 season. However, BetMGM is showing a little more faith in him at +1800. But both DraftKings and FanDuel give you the extra 200 points.

Look for Harvick to bounce back this week and take home his first checkered flag in over a year here. - Villagomez

Ruoff Mortgage 500 Longshot Pick

Kurt Busch (+5000 via DraftKings)

The other Busch brother also has a shot to win at Phoenix on Sunday. Kurt Busch hasn’t won here since the track's 2018 reconfiguration. But he's led laps in four of the seven races, and Busch earned a shot to win the fall 2018 race before a late incident took him out.

Like his brother, Kurt Busch benefits from the Next Gen car. It races very similar to the Gen 4 cars that Busch drove to a championship in 2004, a season when he accumulated one win at a short track and two more at the short-to-intermediate New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

All of Kurt Busch’s most recent wins came at true intermediate tracks like Atlanta and Las Vegas, but he's at his best on shorter tracks. He owns six career wins at Bristol Motor Speedway—NASCAR’s shortest venue—three at the one-mile New Hampshire, two at the three-quarter-mile Richmond, and another at Phoenix before its reconfiguration.

The odds for Kurt Busch to win vary from +4000 to +5000, so we’re getting a decent bit of value through DraftKings. - Sirois

Harrison Burton (+25000 via BetMGM)

The track history in Phoenix includes just a handful of names on the list of winners, leaving little room for longshots. However, a wrinkle has been introduced in 2022 that gives just about anyone on the track an opportunity.

That includes a young driver like Harrison Burton. He’s never driven on this track as a Cup Series driver and will get his first crack at it on Sunday.

He's driven this course four times in an Xfinity car. Burton didn’t win those races, but he put together three top-10 finishes. That includes a second-place showing during his first race, and a third-place finish the last time out.

Last week he was able to complete his first race of the season, resulting in a 16th-place finish. The Woods Brothers haven't won in Phoenix, and Burton may just end that drought. - Villagomez

Ruoff Mortgage 500 Matchup Picks

Kevin Harvick over Brad Keselowski (-155 via DraftKings)

Once nicknamed the Cactus King, Kevin Harvick has underperformed in Phoenix since the reconfiguration in 2018. He owns nine wins here, but all of those victories came before 2018. However, Harvick has still finished relatively well, as he's yet to finish outside the top 10 at the redesigned Phoenix Raceway.

Meanwhile, Brad Keselowski is on a new team in 2022, and the season isn't going according to plan. He looked slow at the Clash, which Keselowski then blamed on his team’s poor planning for short-track events. That bodes very poorly for his odds at Phoenix. Keselowski finished ninth at Daytona before recording a 27th at the Wise Power 400 and a 24th in Las Vegas.

Keselowski has beaten Harvick only once this season, and that came at Daytona. It's surprising to see these two matched up with each other, so let's capitalize. - Sirois

Cole Custer (+100 via BetMGM) vs. AJ Allmendinger

A.J. Allmendinger has been driving Cup cars since 2006. He's notched 60 top-10 performances, 13 top-five outings, and two career wins over 376 races. He was relegated to a part-time role with Kaulig Racing in 2021 while running only five road courses. Allmendinger will make his first Cup start of the 2022 season in the No. 16 that Daniel Hemric previously occupied.

Meanwhile, Custer has started every race in 2021. This gives him a clear advantage in this matchup, as he knows what to expect from the new car. He hasn't been successful in the Cup Series at Phoenix Raceway, which may account for his underdog status here. He's made four starts over the last two seasons while managing one top-10 finish. However, he made six starts and only missed the top 10 once in his Xfinity ride.

Neither of these two will be jockeying for a top spot at the end of the race. But after Custer has already spent time in the seat of the new car and Allmendinger is getting his first taste, the edge goes to the experienced driver.

Last week the No. 16 struggled with engine problems, which is also something to monitor. - Villagomez

Ruoff Mortgage 500 top-5 picks

Ryan Blaney (+125 via DraftKings)

Ryan Blaney has recorded three top-five finishes at Phoenix over his last six races, tying him with a handful of other drivers for the second-most such results over that span. Denny Hamlin, the only driver with more top fives in Phoenix, has gotten off to a rough start in 2022, and avoiding him is wise. Instead, target Blaney because of his juicy odds and strong form in Phoenix.

Blaney has led laps during the last three Phoenix races, including one stage win and five top-five finishes during stages. He only recorded a single top-five in those events, but he should have earned a better result. Blaney also came close to earning a top five in the first race here after the reconfiguration. He led three laps and was running in the top 10 before radiator issues took him out.

Unfortunately, Blaney's 2022 season hasn't started out well. He performed poorly at the Clash, and a block from Austin Cindric killed his chances of winning the Daytona 500. He looked fast during the Wise Power 400 but lost a ton of positions on pit road. Blaney was fast again in Las Vegas before Brad Keselowski wrecked him.

Team Penske tends to focus its research and development on shorter tracks like Phoenix, and we’ve already seen the group win the Clash in 2022. Let’s ride with Blaney to score a top-five finish on Sunday. - Sirois

Chase Briscoe top 5 (+600 via DraftKings)

After a promising start to his second season as a Cup driver, bad luck has made the last two weeks tough for Chase Briscoe. He followed a third-place Daytona 500 finish with two disappointing races outside the top 15. Briscoe endured a 16th-place result in California and a disastrous 35th-place day in Las Vegas.

But don’t let the finishes fool you. There's a lot to like about Briscoe in 2022, and this week in particular. Last week, the No. 14 spent 80% of its time inside the top 15 after starting from the fourth position. And Briscoe's machine was out front for 20 laps during the Wise Power 400.

His car is fast and he knows it. If he stays clean this week, there's a solid chance Briscoe can claim his second top-five finish of the season. - Villagomez

Ruoff Mortgage 500 Prop Picks

All Team Penske cars to finish in the top 10 (+380 via DraftKings)

This play is pretty risky because of Cindric’s inexperience, but we’ll hope that he can learn from his veteran teammates. Joey Logano owns the best average driver rating here over the last six races, according to DriverAverages, and Blaney has only finished outside the top 10 in Phoenix twice since the reconfiguration. Both of those underperformances were due to issues with parts or accidents.

This play should also be targeted because Team Penske is focused on tracks like Phoenix. While the pivot to a universal horsepower package limits the team's advantage somewhat, Team Penske has likely continued to focus its early research and development on similar courses.

Lastly, Cindric wasn’t bad here in the Xfinity Series. He won in Phoenix twice over the last three races, and his other finish was a second-place result. Cindric led 49.8% of the laps in those races while dominating. The task is tougher against Cup Series competitors, but he can notch a top-10 result. - Sirois

Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney top 5 (+380 via DraftKings)

More than half of Joey Logano’s starts in Phoenix have resulted in top-10 finishes, including being in the top three in three of his last four starts, and a win in spring 2020.

He's accumulated seven top-five finishes in Arizona. Logano has also already recorded a top-five finish in 2022 at Fontana. Logano is being valued at -115 to finish in the top five. Adding Blaney to the mix makes this a chance at plus money.

The case for Blaney to finish in the top five isn't as clear-cut as his prop partner, but it's still one worth entertaining. Blaney has tallied four top-10 finishes over his last six races in Phoenix, three of which were top-five outings. The fourth one he barely missed with a sixth-place finish.

Blaney has encountered some bad luck since his fourth-place day at Daytona. He'll look to turn that around in Phoenix. Blaney is valued at +125 for a top-five showing, so pairing him with Logano is a nice bonus. - Villagomez

Where to Bet on the Ruoff Mortgage 500

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

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