Oscars Odds & Favorites 2026: 'One Battle After Another', 'Hamnet' the Best Picture Leaders

Thanksgiving weekend has come and gone, and Paul Thomas Anderson's "One Battle After Another" is still the favorite to win Best Picture at this year's Oscars. Chloe Zhao's "Hamnet", which won the People's Choice Award at TIFF earlier this year, is still the second favorite, but the film saw no shift in momentum after its initial limited release.

While Fanduel (Ontario) thinks this is a two-horse race, there are still plenty of films lurking that could garner some attention as the Oscars draw close. Read on for our up-to-date predictions of this year's race, then head over to one of our best Oscars betting sites for even more betting options. Below, I dive into the latest Oscars odds and favorites ahead of the 2026 Oscars ceremony on Sunday, March 15 (7 p.m. ET) at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles.

🎬 Oscars Best Picture odds 2026

Here are the latest Oscars odds via FanDuel Canada to win Best Picture:

🏆 2026 Oscars Best Picture betting favorites

One Battle After Another (-165)

Will Paul Thomas Anderson finally win his first Oscar? The legendary director is the recipient of 11 previous Oscar nominations, and now that his new film, "One Battle After Another," has been released and received rave reviews, it seems like he might finally hear his name called on Oscar night.

The film boasts a 94% on RottenTomatoes, and with A-list stars like Leonardo DiCaprio, Benicio del Toro, and Sean Penn attached, it's hard to imagine the hype for this film dying down before March. At this point, it feels like the only thing stopping this movie from winning is a surprise hit in December. Or "Hamnet."

Yet, I will also mention that "One Battle After Another" could run into some trouble because of its box office performance. With a projected budget between $130 and $175 million, this is Anderson's biggest film to date. And while the film gave Anderson his best opening weekend ever, with $22 million, that is far less than the film needed to make back its budget. The film made over $200 million worldwide, but it barely cracked $70 million at the domestic box office. Could this hurt "One Battle After Another" when there are sure to be blockbusters in the mix in March?

Hamnet (+300)

“Hamnet” relives a fictional account of William Shakespeare and his wife mourning the loss of their son. The film features a deep ensemble of budding actors and is directed by Chloe Zhao, who won two Oscars for her efforts in “Nomadland”. Zhao once again finds herself on a shortlist for Best Picture glory, and with the Academy showing they have no problem in rewarding her vision, this period piece may be a straightforward ticket to the Oscars.

With Jessie Buckley currently favored to win Best Actress (-250), the film has the type of powerhouse performance that can help elevate it come Oscar night. The film also won the People's Choice Award at TIFF, which all but ensures that voters who were on the fence about viewing the film will now add it to their watchlist.

My biggest concern about this film is how little its release helped its awards momentum. The film will receive a wide release on Dec. 12, but it made just $1.3 million in its opening weekend, and it may prove to be too artsy for some viewers, as it currently holds an 87% on RottenTomatoes.

All that said, this film still has the second-best odds to win, and if this remains a two-horse race, then the question entering Oscar night may be whether the Academy honors someone they already have, or finally awards one of the industry's most beloved auteurs.

🐶 2026 Oscars Best Picture betting underdogs

Sinners (+750)

Since its release on April 18, the momentum for "Sinners" has shown no signs of stopping. The film grossed over $279 million domestically, making it the 10th-highest-grossing R-rated film of all time. But the movie is so much more than just a box office darling. On Dec. 8, the film received seven Golden Globe nominations, including Best Motion Picture - Drama, Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama (Michael B. Jordan), and Best Director (Ryan Coogler).

Early release dates tend to significantly harm Best Picture chances for films. However, in 2022, "Everything Everywhere All at Once" was able to overcome this trend and win Best Picture despite a March 25 release date.

While "One Battle After Another" is still the clear favorite to win Best Picture, the popularity of Coogler and Jordan, as well as the film's overall box office success, may be enough to help "Sinners" overtake "Hamnet" as the second favorite. If you're looking to bet on this film, get your wager in ASAP. Awards season is off to a very favorable start for it, and there's no reason to think the film won't continue to get love as things really ramp up.

Sentimental Value (+850)

"Sentimental Value" may not seem like much of an underdog, but considering its odds compared to "One Battle After Another" and "Hamnet," it's worth highlighting. The film, from director Joachim Trier ("The Worst Person in the World"), has already been announced as Norway's entry for Best International Feature Film. It also won the Grand Prix at the 2025 Cannes Film Festival, and it finished as first runner-up for the International People's Choice Award at TIFF.

The film made just over $10 million at the worldwide box office, so without much word-of-mouth, it's going to have to rely on strong critical acclaim to build momentum. Last year’s Cannes winner “Anora” proved that a film does not need a big budget with Hollywood stars to go all the way in the Oscar race, and Trier will be hoping to take that same path to glory.

"Sentimental Value" hasn't stormed into the Oscar race the same way "Anora" did last season, but the odds have dropped from +2300 before Cannes to +850. Though the film wasn't bolstered by its limited release, it did receive eight Golden Globe nominations, the second-most of any film, including Best Motion Picture - Drama, Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama (Renate Reinsve), and Best Director (Trier). This movie is undoubtedly going to remain in the mix until Oscar Sunday.

Marty Supreme (+1000)

The enigmatic “Uncut Gems” director Josh Safdie returns with an ambitious new project, starring a leading pair of Hollywood juggernauts. “Marty Supreme” will be distributor A24’s biggest financial investment to date and is a project with clear ambitions for both box office and award season success.

Timothée Chalamet – maybe the hottest name in Hollywood right now – leads the cast and is poised to make another serious run at Best Actor, looking to make this project his third Best Picture contender in just two years.

The film doesn't officially release until Christmas Day, so it could end up gaining momentum at the right time, as voters start to forget about films with much earlier release dates, such as some of the favorites in this category. Early reviews for the film as stellar, and with each passing day, this feels like a film that's becoming a lock to at least be nominated for Best Picture. That said, it only received three Golden Globe nominations, though one of those was for Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy.

🎯 2026 Oscars Best Picture betting long shots

Avatar: Fire and Ash (+1400)

Both "Avatar" films have been nominated for Best Picture, so unless this film receives a cold reception from critics, it's safe to assume this will be nominated for the biggest category of the night. But can it win?

While the visuals for this film will probably be phenomenal, the only way this movie can be a true contender for Best Picture is if the story is better than the ones for the previous two films. With that in mind, if the story does exceed expectations, then this could easily end up as one of the top two or three favorites on Oscar Sunday.

Because of the popularity of the first two "Avatar" films, this movie already has a lot of hype around it heading into the Fall. If it's a crowd-pleaser, it could end up winning out over some "artsier" films. Though it's worth noting that it became the first "Avatar" film to not be nominated for Best Motion Picture - Drama at the Golden Globes, a category which the first film won in Jan. 2010.

Bugonia (+1400)

No film benefitted more from the Golden Globe nominations than "Bugonia." Yorgos Lanthimos' latest delve into the truly bizarre, received three nominations, including Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy, Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy (Emma Stone), and Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy (Jesse Plemons).

While Lanthimos didn't receive a nomination for Best Director, the film's odds still went from +2200 to +1400, a significant move that no other serious contender saw. The film is up for Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards, where Stone is also nominated for Best Actress. While it's still a massive longshot to take home the biggest prize on Oscar Sunday, it certainly has a better chance than most of the movies with odds of +1000 or greater.

💸 2026 Oscars Best Picture betting pick

Now that the odds for "One Battle After Another" and "Hamnet" have dropped so much, there isn't much value in taking either to win Best Picture, especially this far out. If you want to get in on one of those films, it's best to wait for the time when the hype around them dies down in favor of another film. That said, while I think that "One Battle After Another" has this locked down, “Sinners” at +750 provides the most value. The film just keeps hanging around, picking up big nomination after big nomination. If it starts to win awards, then this could end up being the favorite heading into the ceremony.

🏆 Last year's Oscars betting results

💡 How to bet on the Oscars

Odds for the 2026 Oscars are available at our best sportsbooks. It's worth checking out our best sportsbook promos to see which bonus offers you can take advantage of when betting on the Oscars, and don't miss our guide for how to bet on the Oscars!.

Once you've chosen your favorite of our best sportsbooks, navigate to the section that includes Oscars 2026 odds. It may be listed under Entertainment or can be found by searching "Oscars" at your preferred sportsbook.

DraftKings had its own "Academy Awards" section last year, where you could find various betting markets available including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Lead Actor, and Best Lead Actress, among others. 

Review the odds for each award and consider factors such as past winners, the name value of a given nominee, and the release date of a film. This information can help inform your betting decisions. Once you've selected your bet, enter the stake amount (the amount of money you want to wager) and confirm your bet.

It's essential to remember that betting on the Oscars or any sports event involves risk. Set a budget for yourself and gamble responsibly. Go and watch some movies, and may your bet be a winning one!

❓ Oscars FAQs

When are the Oscars?

The 2026 Oscars will take place Sunday, March 15, beginning at 7 p.m. ET.

Where are the Oscars?

The Oscars will likely be held at Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles.

Who's hosting the Oscars?

Conan O'Brien will reprise his role as host for the 2026 Oscars.

How to watch the Oscars

The 2026 Oscars will be broadcast on ABC.