Oscars Odds & Predictions 2026: Prediction Market Favorites for Best Picture and More
We're digging into the latest Oscars odds at prediction trading market Kalshi for all of the major categories, including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, and Best Actress. 'Sinners' and 'One Battle After Another' dominated the nominees with 16 and 13 nominations, respectively.
After reviewing this page, head over to one of our best Oscars betting sites for more wagering options. Without further ado, here are the latest Oscars odds and favorites ahead of the 2026 Oscars ceremony on Sunday, March 15 (7 p.m. ET) at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles.
🎬 Best Picture Oscars odds
Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.
Best Picture prediction: One Battle After Another
"Sinners" may have earned more nominations, but it's still hard to see how "One Battle After Another" doesn't win Best Picture in mid-March. PTA's film has dominated the awards circuit, winning Best Picture and Best Director at the Critics Choice Awards and Golden Globes.
That said, traders have been all over "Sinners" since the Oscar nominations were announced. The probability was as high as 82.5% (-475) for "One Battle After Another" to win, but it's dropped to 67% (-280). To me, this is just a bunch of noise as the public overreacts to "Sinners" record-breaking number of nominations. No precursor awards suggest that "Sinners" has a chance, and "One Battler After Another" is still being given a better chance to win than "Anora" (-200) was on Oscar Sunday last year.
The film boasts a 94% on RottenTomatoes, and with A-list stars like Leonardo DiCaprio, Benicio del Toro, and Sean Penn attached, the hype for the film hasn't died down at all. There's also the fact that, with his three nominations this year, Paul Thomas Anderson has received 14 Oscar nominations but has never won. There's really nothing working against the film at the moment.
For your consideration: Marty Supreme
As I've already mentioned, "Sinners" saw a big surge in momentum after the nominations were announced, overtaking "Hamnet" as the second-favorite at this year's ceremony. However, I still believe that "Marty Supreme," even with just a 2% (+2200) chance of winning, poses the biggest threat to PTA's latest film.
“Marty Supreme” is distributor A24’s biggest financial investment to date, and the film is proving to be a success. Timothée Chalamet – maybe the hottest name in Hollywood right now – leads the cast and seems destined to finally win Best Actor after his big win over Leonardo DiCaprio at the Golden Globes. He was honored at the Critics Choice Awards, and he currently has a 72% chance of beating DiCaprio and taking home the Oscar.
The film boasts a 93% on RottenTomatoes, and it has grossed over $80 million at the U.S. box office. What's most shocking to me is that despite director Josh Safdie earning an Oscar nomination, the odds for the film to win actually sank significantly. While this award is likely to go "One Battle After Another," there is a lot to like about the value in taking "Marty Supreme."
🏆 Best Director Oscars odds
Projected winner: Paul Thomas Anderson - One Battle After Another
Anderson is one of the biggest favorites of the night, and rightfully so. PTA has now earned either a writing or directing nomination for seven of the 10 films that he's directed. This includes four Best Director nominations, with his most recent coming in 2022 for "Licorice Pizza." However, he has never won an Oscar.
Even after "Sinners" racked up 16 nominations, no director other than Anderson is being given a greater than 13% chance of winning this award. I still expect Ryan Coogler's chance to increase as the Oscars draw near, but even if "One Battle After Another" somehow loses Best Picture, this is Anderson's award.
For your consideration: Ryan Coogler - Sinners
Speaking of Coogler, he seems like the only one who can really pull off a surprise on Oscar Sunday. With "Sinners" earning a record-breaking number of nominations, there's an argument to be made that Coogler and his film will have all the momentum entering Oscar Sunday. That said, Coogler has a better shot to win Best Original Screenplay than Best Director. However, if you want to pick an upset, it's best to buy shares in Coogler now, as his chances have increased by 10% over the last week.
🏆 Best Actor Oscars odds
Projected winner: Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme)
Chalamet is just 30 years old, and he's already picked up his third Best Actor nomination. He was previously nominated for "Call Me by Your Name" in 2018 and "A Complete Unknown" in 2025. Last year, he ultimately lost to Adrien Brody for "The Brutalist."
Chalamet's win at the Golden Globes gives him a clear advantage over Leonardo DiCaprio entering Oscar Sunday. While DiCaprio's film picked up way more nominations and is likely to win more Oscars, Chalamet has the momentum right now. In fact, other than DiCaprio winning Best Actor at the National Board of Review of Motion Pictures Awards, he really hasn't taken home much hardware this awards season.
It seems that DiCaprio is surviving on name recognition, while Chalamet continues to separate himself from the field as more and more voters see "Marty Supreme." And if Chalamet does lose, it will likely be to less of a household name.
For your consideration: Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)
While many will look at DiCaprio as the potential upset pick in this category, the fact that he hasn't gained more momentum despite his film's immense popularity on the awards circuit has me worried for him. Therefore, I'll back Moura for his work in "The Secret Agent."
While DiCaprio and Chalamet were duking it out at the Golden Globes, Moura very quietly won Best Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama. He's also taken home Best Actor at the Cannes Film Festival, Chicago International Film Festival, and New York Film Critics Circle Awards. In all, he's won 10 awards for his work in "The Secret Agent." He doesn't have the same star power as Chalamet, but he does have a legit chance of pulling off the upset on Oscar Sunday.
🏆 Best Actress Oscars odds
Projected winner: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
There is really nothing to discuss here. Buckley is the biggest favorite of the night, and the current odds give her an 88% chance of winning. Shockingly, this is actually worse odds than she previously had, as she had a greater than 90% chance before the Oscar nominations were announced.
While "Hamnet" seems less likely to win major awards with each passing day, the momentum for Buckley has never wavered. She's taken home trophies from the Critics Choice Awards, Golden Globes, and most of the other major critic organizations, and it would be the biggest shock of the night if she lost.
For your consideration: Emma Stone (Bugonia)
As I've said, Buckley is going to win. However, if the Oscars were going to see one of the biggest upsets of all time, my bet would be on Stone pulling it off. While Rose Byrne and Renate Reinsve both have shorter odds to win than Stone, Stone is a two-time winner in this category, and we've seen her gain a lot of momentum in previous years after Oscar nominations were announced. Remember, in 2023, she wasn't expected to beat Lily Gladstone for her work in "Killers of the Flower Moon" until right before the ceremony.
But the Academy awarded Stone for her work in "Poor Things," and they have another chance to reward her for a bizarre performance in a Yorgos Lanthimos film. Again, it's not going to happen, but with "Bugonia" unlikely to win any other awards, could we see the Oscars recognize the film by giving Stone the win? After all, we saw Olivia Colman take home Best Actress for Lanthimos' film "The Favourite" on a night when the movie didn't take home a single other award.
🏆 Best Supporting Actor Oscars odds
Projected winner: Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
While the leading categories are barely competitive, the supporting categories are wide open this year. While Stellan Skarsgard is currently favored after winning Best Supporting Actor at the Golden Globes, he's hardly a lock. Just after Oscar nominations were announced, his odds of winning got worse. Since then, his odds have jumped to 66%, but I think that's just traders trying to make the most of a low percentage for the perceived favorite.
There are two previous Oscar winners in consideration here, with Sean Penn and Benicio Del Toro both up for "One Battle After Another." While there's always a chance that they end up splitting votes, I think that Penn is being severely undervalued in this category.
Penn has won two Oscars ("Mystic River" and "Milk"). Heading into the 2009 Oscars, Penn didn't have much momentum, as Mickey Rourke had just defeated him at the Golden Globes for his role in "The Wrestler." Yet, when the Oscars came around, the Academy ultimately went with a performance that showed off Penn's range. I wouldn't be surprised if they do the same here, after Penn was horrifying and hilarious in "One Battle After Another."
For your consideration: Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein)
I'd be happy with Skarsgard winning, but I don't see much value in taking him as a favorite. Therefore, I'll take Elordi to potentially pull off this upset.
While Del Toro and Penn run a risk of splitting votes, Skarsgard runs the risk of simply not being someone the Academy feels they "owe." He's been great in so many films, but this is his first Oscar nomination, and his film isn't nearly as popular as "Frankenstein."
Elordi has received a lot of praise for his role, picking up wins and nominations throughout awards season. He also won Best Supporting Actor at the Critics Choice Awards, defeating every other nominee in this category.
🏆 Best Supporting Actress Oscars odds
Projected winner: Amy Madigan (Weapons)
Teyana Taylor is nearing lock status in this category, and yet, I still think that Amy Madigan provides the most value when looking for a good investment. Madigan was pulling away from the rest of the field after winning Best Supporting Actress at the Critics Choice Awards, but her momentum came to a bit of a halt after losing to Taylor at the Golden Globes.
But Madigan has won over 30 awards for her role as Aunt Gladys and received her first Oscar nomination since 1986. The Academy loves to reward veterans for their body of work when they finally get the chance, and there's no one else who fits that bill in this category.
The only thing that makes this an uphill battle for Madigan is that she's really only in one segment of the film. However, we've seen supporting Oscars go to roles like this in the past (Mahershala Ali in "Moonlight"). Additionally, "Weapons" simply isn't the same without Madigan. You could argue that she is the movie. The same can't be said for any of the other women in this category.
For your consideration: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value)
While Taylor is the safer pick for this, there's just not enough value in taking a chance on her at her current price. She absolutely could win, but with where the percentages currently sit, I'm going to keep trying to find ways to beat the favorite.
While Lileaas hasn't won many awards for her role in "Sentimental Value," she has received nearly 50 nominations for her work. She also won Best Supporting Actress at the National Board of Review Awards.
Additionally, though "Sentimental Value" racked up nine Oscar nominations, it's only favored in two categories. In both of those categories, it's hardly a lock to win. This means that there's a situation where this is the only spot where voters are able to reward "Sentimental Value." And with "Weapons" failing to get a Best Picture nomination, perhaps Madigan loses enough steam heading into the ceremony to open the door for Lilleaas.
What is Kalshi and how does it work for the 2026 Grammy Awards?
Kalshi is a U.S.-regulated prediction market exchange overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, where users trade on real-world outcomes using simple contracts. In the context of the 2026 Oscars, that could mean markets tied to questions like whether a specific film will win Best Picture or if a certain srtar takes home Best Actor.
Each contract pays out $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not. If you think an artist will win and buy a “Yes” contract at 40 cents, that implies a 40 percent chance. If the artist wins, the contract settles at $1, netting 60 cents per share. If not, it settles at $0. Prices fluctuate as users buy and sell, so the market reflects the collective expectations of the crowd.
How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?
Unlike sportsbooks, Kalshi users trade directly with each other in an open market rather than betting against a house. Prices are expressed in cents as implied probabilities, and positions can be sold early to lock in gains or limit losses. For entertainment events like the Oscars, the focus is on forecasting outcomes, not beating a fixed line, offering more flexibility and transparency than traditional betting.
Why should I wager on the Oscars at Kalshi?
Kalshi offers four unique advantages over traditional sportsbooks:
- Flexibility: Unlike a "locked-in" bet, you can sell your contract at any time.
- Transparency: You trade against other users, which can allow you to find better value.
- Federal regulation: As a CFTC-regulated exchange, your funds are held in a secure, transparent environment.
- Availability: Kalshi is available in many regions where traditional sportsbooks aren't yet legal.
❓ Oscars FAQs
When are the Oscars?
The 2026 Oscars will take place Sunday, March 15, beginning at 7 p.m. ET.
Where are the Oscars?
The Oscars will likely be held at Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles.
Who's hosting the Oscars?
Conan O'Brien will reprise his role as host for the 2026 Oscars.
How to watch the Oscars
The 2026 Oscars will be broadcast on ABC.
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