Dollar Tree 301 Predictions & Odds 2026: NASCAR Picks, Props, Best Bets at New Hampshire
Austin Cindric brought home the bacon for us with a very strong top-10 run last weekend at Richmond. The Fords from Team Penske hold momentum as the playoffs approach, and I like them again this weekend at another short, flat oval. Let's dive into my NASCAR predictions at New Hampshire for the 2026 Dollar Tree 301.
The action is scheduled for Sunday, August 23, at 3 p.m. ET (USA) from New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Qualifying is slated for Friday, August 22, at 10:30 a.m. ET (truTV).
📈 NASCAR odds at New Hampshire: Dollar Tree 301
Latest NASCAR odds at BetMGM as of Friday, Aug. 21; subject to change.
| Driver | Odds |
|---|---|
| Ryan Blaney | +425 |
| Christopher Bell | +550 |
| Denny Hamlin | +575 |
| Joey Logano | +575 |
| Chase Briscoe | +650 |
| Josh Berry | +1000 |
| Ty Gibbs | +1300 |
| Kyle Larson | +1400 |
| Chase Elliott | +1600 |
| William Byron | +1800 |
| Tyler Reddick | +1800 |
| Bubba Wallace | +2200 |
| Austin Cindric | +2500 |
| Ross Chastain | +4000 |
| Brad Keselowski | +5000 |
| Carson Hocevar | +6000 |
| Austin Dillon | +6000 |
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💡 How to bet NASCAR at New Hampshire Motor Speedway
Like Martinsville, New Hampshire is a short, flat oval that's shaped like a paperclip. But like Phoenix, it’s a mile long. As a result, the top average green-flag speed here last year was 124.4 mph, far faster than Martinsville (91.6 mph), but quite close to Phoenix (125.8 mph). I recommend leaning on all of the short, flat ovals as examples to handicap New Hampshire. You need to worry about speed, acceleration, and braking.
It’s a short list of drivers who have run well across all of those tracks. Before last weekend’s race at Richmond, the trio of Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, and Joey Logano were all tied for first with an average green-flag speed ranking of 3.5 across the venues. Blaney’s poor showing recently, combined with Logano’s dominance, give the pilot of the No. 22 Ford the top spot.
🏆 Best bet to win Dollar Tree 301
Joey Logano, Team Penske (No. 22)
- Joey Logano to win: +575 via BetMGM (0.6u)
- Joey Logano vs. Denny Hamlin: -125 via DraftKings (0.6u)
After his dominance at Richmond, how can you not like Joey Logano here? Logano led 95 of 400 laps, posted the second-best driver rating, and recorded the fastest average green-flag speed, all at a track that compares very favorably to the one we’re at this week.
Beyond that, Logano also impressed here last season. He led 147 of 301 laps (more than race-winner Ryan Blaney), posted the second-best driver rating, and recorded the second-fastest average green-flag speed. He's now +575 (14.8%) to win and -125 (55.6%) just to beat Hamlin.
While Hamlin has also been good on short, flat ovals, and especially this year, he has yet to score a top five at New Hampshire in the NextGen car in four races. Logano has done so twice. I trust the Team Penske veteran to maintain his momentum en route to yet another even-year championship.
📡 SBR Edge
Hamlin’s strong 2026 campaign is impressive, but is it sustainable? He hasn’t finished outside the top five on a non-drafting oval since Bristol (April). Check out this visual of his performance on those tracks – his average finish (3.7) is six spots better than next-best Ryan Blaney (9.7). But where some see signal, I hear noise. I’m fading the No. 11 team. An improbable run of good luck should come to an end.
🔥 More NASCAR picks & prop bets
Austin Cindric, Team Penske (No. 2)
- Austin Cindric top 10: +135 via DraftKings (1.5u)
We were right on time with Austin Cindric last week, cashing in on him to score a top-10 finish at +210 for 1.75 units. The field is at another short, flat oval this week, and I expect similar results. Cindric and the No. 2 team are right on the edge of the playoff cut line, which necessitates consistent performance. Let’s stake some of last week’s winnings on another Penske car to score a top 10 at the track type the team runs best at right now.
Ryan Preece, RFK Racing (No. 60)
- Ryan Preece to win: +10000 via BetMGM (0.1u)
- Ryan Preece top 10: +380 via DraftKings (0.9u)
Preece, a New Englander who cut his teeth racing modifieds on short, flat ovals like (and including!) New Hampshire Motor Speedway, is quite familiar with this style of racing. While the results from the No. 60 team on short, flat ovals haven’t been spectacular, he just ranked seventh by average green-flag speed at Richmond. And as the first team out of the postseason, he needs to put some good runs together to qualify. We’re getting way too much value on Preece to score a top 10 at +380 (20.8%) through DraftKings.
💰 My NASCAR bets at New Hampshire
Here are the actual NASCAR bets I'm making for the Dollar Tree 301, with the best odds from our best sports betting sites for Sunday's race at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.
| Best bets | Best odds | Units → profit |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Logano to win | +575 via BetMGM | 0.5u → 2.88u |
| Joey Logano vs. Denny Hamlin | -125 via DraftKings | 1.25u → 1u |
| Austin Cindric top 10 | +135 via DraftKings | 1.5u → 2.03u |
| Ryan Preece to win | +10000 via BetMGM | 0.1u → 10u |
| Ryan Preece top 10 | +380 via DraftKings | 0.9u → 3.42u |
Total wagered: 4.25 units | Max profit: 16.45 units (with Preece winning)
🏆 Past NASCAR winners at New Hampshire
Here is a list of every NASCAR race winner at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in the Next Gen era:
| Race | Winner | Team | Laps led |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Ryan Blaney | Team Penske | 116 |
| 2024 | Christopher Bell | Joe Gibbs Racing | 149 |
| 2023 | Martin Truex Jr. | Joe Gibbs Racing | 254 |
| 2022 | Christopher Bell | Joe Gibbs Racing | 42 |
📺 How to watch NASCAR at New Hampshire: 2026 Dollar Tree 301
- Date: Sunday, August 23
- Time: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: New Hampshire Motor Speedway (Loudon, N.H.)
- TV: USA
- Track: 1-mile flat oval (301 laps, 301 miles)
- Stages: Stage 1 (70 laps), Stage 2 (115 laps), final stage (116 laps)
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