Dutch Grand Prix Predictions, Odds 2026: Expert F1 Picks for Sunday's Race
With the pre-race festivities underway, I’m profiling my Dutch Grand Prix predictions.
Kimi Antonelli is the betting favorite again, which is where he’s resided since the third race of the season. However, I’m backing Max Verstappen to put on a show at Circuit Zandvoort, his home course.
📊 Dutch Grand Prix odds 2026
Top Dutch Grand Prix odds to win Sunday's race, via BetMGM; subject to change.
| Driver | American Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kimi Antonelli | +200 | 33.33% | $20 |
| Lando Norris | +350 | 22.22% | $35 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +400 | 20% | $40 |
| Charles Leclerc | +550 | 15.38% | $55 |
| George Russell | +800 | 11.11% | $80 |
| Max Verstappen | +800 | 11.11% | $80 |
| Oscar Piastri | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
| Liam Lawson | +12500 | 0.79% | $1,250 |
All other drivers are trading at +50000 or longer.
💰 Dutch Grand Prix predictions, best bets
All picks were made based on odds before the practice sessions and qualifying.
| 💰 Bet | ⚖️ Units | 🧠 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| To win race: Max Verstappen, Red Bull (+800) | 0.5u -> 4u | Verstappen is due for a win, and he’s racing on his home course. |
| Charles Leclerc to finish ahead of Lewis Hamilton (-118) | 0.5u -> 0.43u | Charles Leclerc has been in better form recently. |
| Kimi Antonelli and Lando Norris top 3 finish (+155) | 0.5u -> 0.78u | Antonelli has finished out of the top three twice in 11 races, and Lando Norris won the previous race. |
Total wagered: 2.5 units | Max profit: 5.21 units
🏆 Pick to win Dutch Grand Prix: Charles Leclerc
I’m going out on a limb a little by backing a driver who hasn’t won a GP since taking the checkered flag in the final three races of last season.
However, Verstappen has three podium finishes in the previous three races, and Circuit Zandvoort is among the 10 slowest tracks on the grid.
That should help a Red Bull team that has been proactive in trying to bridge the performance gap between them, Ferrari, and Mercedes.
Circuit Zandvoort is arguably the four-time champion’s favorite course. Not only is Verstappen from the Netherlands, but he won the Dutch GP three times in a row from 2021 to 2023.
🏎️ Charles Leclerc to finish ahead of Lewis Hamilton
This pick is based on recent form. Charles Leclerc has kicked it into high gear, finishing first, second, and fourth in the previous three races.
Compare that to Lewis Hamilton, whose form has dipped after a terrific patch. He has finished among the top three only once in the last four races.
That correlates to the confidence with which Leclerc is driving. It appears as though he’s finally mastered Ferrari’s SF-26, which he struggled with earlier in the season.
👊 Kimi Antonelli, Lando Norris to finish in top 3
Antonelli has finished outside the top three twice in 11 races, with a mechanical failure the cause of those outliers.
The betting favorite to win the world championship is as consistent as they come, and I don’t see that changing.
Despite the summer break potentially interrupting the momentum Lando Norris gained from winning the Hungarian GP, I expect the Brit to carry on where he left off.
McLaren has made impressive gains on Mercedes and Ferrari, and they are expected to challenge the frontrunners again on Sunday. Norris has finished among the top three in two of the previous five races while also securing fourth place.
💡 How I'm betting the Dutch Grand Prix
With parity returning to the F1, I’m quietly confident about my picks for Sunday’s race. However, I’m investing only half a unit on each pick, as competition for the top three places is stiff.
Verstappen is tied with George Russell for the fifth-shortest odds, making him a comparative outsider. And Norris will need to be at his best to return to the podium. While I'm backing Leclerc, Hamilton has been excellent this season, and he could return to form after an extended break.
🏆 Past Dutch Grand Prix winners
🗓️ 2026 Dutch Grand Prix schedule
Practice 1: Friday, Aug. 21 @ 6:30 a.m. ET- Sprint Shootout: Friday, Aug. 21 @ 10:30 a.m. ET
- Sprint Race: Saturday, Aug. 22 @ 6 a.m. ET
- Qualifying: Saturday, Aug. 22 @ 10 a.m. ET
- Race: Sunday, Aug. 23 @ 9 a.m. ET
📺 How to watch 2026 Dutch Grand Prix
- Date: Sunday, Aug. 23
- Time: 9 a.m. ET
- Location: Circuit Zandvoort (Zandvoort, Netherlands)
- How to watch: ESPN
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